Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:21:13

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.4 oversold
20d Trend
-19.1%
5d Trend
-12.6%
EMA20 Dist
-11.6%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

30
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.6/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
2.4/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 30.1/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 29.6

30-Day Momentum

6
-0.1%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-24 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$17,939.51
Current Value
$15,422.40
Period P&L
$-2,517.13
Max Drawdown
-29.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
6 / 14
Best Trade
+6.04%
Worst Trade
-4.75%
Avg Trade Return
-0.76%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$642,797.64
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,517.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,517.13
Gross Return
-14.03%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.03%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PANW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $17,939.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 1:30pm ET $290.88 62 $18,034.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $308.45 62 $19,123.90 $19,260.13 +$1,089.34
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 2:15pm ET $352.95 54 $19,059.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $337.99 54 $18,251.46 $18,452.29 $-807.84
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 3:05pm ET $344.02 53 $18,233.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $333.64 53 $17,682.92 $17,902.15 $-550.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET $328.33 54 $17,729.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:35am ET $318.17 54 $17,180.91 $17,353.51 $-548.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 2:30pm ET $350.45 49 $17,172.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 10:10am ET $339.21 49 $16,621.29 $16,802.51 $-551.00
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 2:25pm ET $333.62 50 $16,681.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:10am ET $323.57 50 $16,178.61 $16,300.13 $-502.38
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 1:35pm ET $326.23 49 $15,985.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $310.71 49 $15,225.03 $15,540.14 $-759.99
(-4.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:40am ET $315.91 49 $15,479.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $332.31 49 $16,283.19 $16,343.74 +$803.60
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:50am ET $367.30 44 $16,161.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $352.36 44 $15,503.84 $15,686.38 $-657.36
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 10:50am ET $361.61 43 $15,549.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:05am ET $381.90 43 $16,421.70 $16,558.64 +$872.26
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 2:20pm ET $382.29 43 $16,438.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $370.42 43 $15,928.06 $16,048.23 $-510.41
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:45am ET $368.32 43 $15,837.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET $353.99 43 $15,221.57 $15,432.04 $-616.19
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 11:20am ET $351.76 43 $15,125.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 1:35pm ET $340.29 43 $14,632.47 $14,938.83 $-493.21
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $338.66 44 $14,901.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $358.56 44 $15,776.64 $15,814.43 +$875.60
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:30am ET $376.93 41 $15,454.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 9:50am ET $365.41 41 $14,981.81 $15,342.11 $-472.32
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 10:50am ET $375.23 40 $15,009.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:55am ET $363.46 40 $14,538.40 $14,871.11 $-471.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 9:55am ET $330.38 45 $14,867.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $347.31 45 $15,628.79 $15,632.80 +$761.69
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 1:40pm ET $377.13 41 $15,462.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $365.11 41 $14,969.71 $15,140.18 $-492.62
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $368.55 41 $15,110.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:10am ET $356.90 41 $14,633.10 $14,662.68 $-477.50
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 11:45am ET $371.32 39 $14,481.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 3:00pm ET $390.80 39 $15,241.20 $15,422.40 +$759.72
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,422.40
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,422.40
Total Return: +54.22%
Back to Marcus Reversal