Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:43:51

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
21.5 oversold
20d Trend
-29.6%
5d Trend
-14.4%
EMA20 Dist
-18.7%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

69
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
22.3/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
3.0/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 69.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 69.0

30-Day Momentum

32
+10.4%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 41.5 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-37 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$41,762.46
Current Value
$58,097.02
Period P&L
$16,334.58
Max Drawdown
-28.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.36

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
12 / 8
Best Trade
+6.10%
Worst Trade
-5.25%
Avg Trade Return
+1.66%
Avg Hold Time
3.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,931,816.01
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$16,334.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$16,334.58
Gross Return
+39.11%
Net Return (after fees)
+39.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PLTR Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $41,762.46 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $118.59 359 $42,573.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $114.39 359 $41,066.01 $41,141.37 $-1,507.80
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $111.85 367 $41,048.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:40am ET $108.25 367 $39,729.58 $39,822.00 $-1,319.37
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:55pm ET $112.43 354 $39,800.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:55am ET $118.36 354 $41,899.44 $41,921.22 +$2,099.22
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $117.36 357 $41,899.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:45am ET $123.58 357 $44,119.84 $44,141.76 +$2,220.54
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET $127.07 347 $44,093.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 11:55am ET $133.63 347 $46,369.61 $46,418.08 +$2,276.32
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $137.44 337 $46,317.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $130.23 337 $43,887.51 $43,988.31 $-2,429.77
(-5.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 10:15am ET $127.29 345 $43,915.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 10:55am ET $133.68 345 $46,119.60 $46,192.86 +$2,204.55
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET $130.65 353 $46,119.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 10:45am ET $126.58 353 $44,682.74 $44,756.15 $-1,436.71
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:55am ET $121.84 367 $44,715.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:45am ET $128.26 367 $47,071.42 $47,112.29 +$2,356.14
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:45am ET $120.32 391 $47,043.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 2:45pm ET $126.61 391 $49,504.51 $49,573.63 +$2,461.34
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:25am ET $120.02 413 $49,568.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $126.78 413 $52,360.14 $52,365.47 +$2,791.84
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:45am ET $160.86 325 $52,279.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $153.46 325 $49,872.88 $49,959.10 $-2,406.37
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 2:45pm ET $170.18 293 $49,862.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:45am ET $179.24 293 $52,516.59 $52,612.95 +$2,653.85
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 11:45am ET $173.76 302 $52,475.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:45am ET $184.36 302 $55,676.72 $55,814.15 +$3,201.20
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
15.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $185.48 300 $55,644.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:30am ET $176.42 300 $52,926.00 $53,096.15 $-2,718.00
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 11:15am ET $182.30 291 $53,049.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 10:00am ET $176.62 291 $51,394.97 $51,441.82 $-1,654.33
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 10:00am ET $171.82 299 $51,374.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $165.88 299 $49,598.12 $49,665.76 $-1,776.06
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:00am ET $165.51 300 $49,653.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 3:35pm ET $174.01 300 $52,201.50 $52,214.26 +$2,548.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 3:35pm ET $173.54 300 $52,062.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:30am ET $182.30 300 $54,689.76 $54,842.02 +$2,627.76
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 10:45am ET $182.30 300 $54,690.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:45am ET $193.15 300 $57,945.00 $58,097.02 +$3,255.00
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $58,097.02
Net Profit/Loss: +$48,097.02
Total Return: +480.97%
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