Compendium › Marcus Reversal › QQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
QQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 4 trades in period

-1.68%
Last 3 Months Return
$15,350.87
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$15,613.08
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:59:04

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-4.6%
EMA20 Dist
-3.6%
ATR%
1.8%
Range Pos
21%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.3/35
Total Return
14.4/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
3.8/15
Consistency
6.9/10
Raw Quality 37.2/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,613.08
Current Value
$15,350.87
Period P&L
$-262.20
Max Drawdown
-29.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.67%
Worst Trade
-3.52%
Avg Trade Return
-0.37%
Avg Hold Time
16.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$117,594.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-262.20
Net P&L (after fees)
$-262.20
Gross Return
-1.68%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.68%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 QQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,613.08 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $713.21 21 $14,977.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $688.11 21 $14,450.31 $15,085.97 $-527.10
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:50am ET $699.69 21 $14,693.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:35am ET $678.01 21 $14,238.21 $14,630.69 $-455.28
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:35am ET $670.30 21 $14,076.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $708.28 21 $14,873.88 $15,428.27 +$797.58
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:40am ET $722.91 21 $15,181.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 10:40am ET $719.22 21 $15,103.72 $15,350.87 $-77.40
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,350.87
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,350.87
Total Return: +53.51%
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