Compendium › Marcus Reversal › RBLX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RBLX
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 22 trades in period

+22.18%
Last 3 Months Return
$12,336.96
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$10,097.43
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:20:16

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

22
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 21.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 21.6

30-Day Momentum

64
+21.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 86.7 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+43 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,097.43
Current Value
$12,336.96
Period P&L
$2,239.53
Max Drawdown
-46.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
10 / 12
Best Trade
+8.83%
Worst Trade
-5.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.94%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$486,067.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,239.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,239.53
Gross Return
+22.18%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.18%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,097.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 12:40pm ET $48.42 213 $10,313.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET $46.51 213 $9,905.57 $9,919.58 $-407.89
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 1:20pm ET $47.03 210 $9,877.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET $50.90 210 $10,689.00 $10,731.23 +$811.65
(+8.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 1:50pm ET $55.08 194 $10,686.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 11:00am ET $57.85 194 $11,223.87 $11,268.61 +$537.38
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 12:45pm ET $54.33 207 $11,246.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:45am ET $57.40 207 $11,881.14 $11,903.44 +$634.83
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET $56.72 209 $11,854.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:55am ET $54.84 209 $11,461.56 $11,510.52 $-392.92
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:00am ET $55.16 208 $11,473.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $52.19 208 $10,855.52 $10,892.76 $-617.76
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 1:40pm ET $54.57 199 $10,860.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $52.81 199 $10,510.18 $10,542.92 $-349.84
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET $50.98 206 $10,501.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $48.40 206 $9,970.40 $10,011.44 $-531.48
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET $47.26 211 $9,970.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 11:10am ET $49.68 211 $10,482.48 $10,523.11 +$511.67
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 3:45pm ET $49.78 211 $10,503.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 10:15am ET $48.21 211 $10,172.31 $10,191.84 $-331.27
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET $34.30 297 $10,187.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET $36.37 297 $10,801.89 $10,806.63 +$614.79
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 1:10pm ET $37.84 285 $10,784.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET $36.69 285 $10,455.23 $10,477.06 $-329.57
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 2:25pm ET $36.57 286 $10,459.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET $38.98 286 $11,148.28 $11,166.32 +$689.26
(+6.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET $36.97 302 $11,164.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:55am ET $35.86 302 $10,829.72 $10,831.10 $-335.22
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 12:45pm ET $38.63 280 $10,816.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 10:45am ET $37.40 280 $10,470.60 $10,485.30 $-345.80
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET $38.23 274 $10,474.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 10:05am ET $40.32 274 $11,047.68 $11,058.81 +$573.51
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 2:45pm ET $40.18 275 $11,049.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $43.20 275 $11,880.00 $11,889.31 +$830.50
(+7.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:10pm ET $44.99 264 $11,877.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 10:10am ET $43.57 264 $11,502.48 $11,514.43 $-374.88
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 1:40pm ET $45.29 254 $11,503.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET $47.63 254 $12,098.02 $12,108.79 +$594.36
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:35am ET $50.30 240 $12,072.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 9:55am ET $48.55 240 $11,651.09 $11,687.88 $-420.91
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $46.86 249 $11,668.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $51.00 249 $12,699.00 $12,718.74 +$1,030.86
(+8.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET $50.33 252 $12,684.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 11:15am ET $48.82 252 $12,302.64 $12,336.96 $-381.78
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,336.96
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,336.96
Total Return: +23.37%
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