RIOT Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 31 trades in period
-31.99%
Last 3 Months Return
$5,969.55
Current Value
26%
Win Rate
$8,777.85
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality
4.8/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 4.8
30-Day Momentum
37
+11.0%
30d Return
56%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 43.6
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+32 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)
Market Closed (2 days)
2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,777.85
Current Value
$5,969.55
Period P&L
$-2,808.31
Max Drawdown
-51.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.28
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
31
Winners / Losers
8 /
23
Best Trade
+8.21%
Worst Trade
-5.29%
Avg Trade Return
-1.14%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$396,476.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,808.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,808.31
Gross Return
-31.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.99%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 31 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,777.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $27.45 | 318 | $8,729.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $26.58 | 318 | $8,452.44 | $8,475.76 |
$-276.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:50pm ET | $28.01 | 302 | $8,459.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $27.14 | 302 | $8,196.28 | $8,213.02 |
$-262.74 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 10:20am ET | $26.80 | 306 | $8,200.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $25.58 | 306 | $7,827.48 | $7,839.70 |
$-373.32 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.65 | 331 | $7,828.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $22.69 | 331 | $7,510.39 | $7,521.97 |
$-317.73 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 11:35am ET | $23.51 | 319 | $7,499.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $22.80 | 319 | $7,271.61 | $7,293.88 |
$-228.09 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 3:55pm ET | $21.25 | 343 | $7,290.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 11:25am ET | $20.60 | 343 | $7,067.51 | $7,070.93 |
$-222.95 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 12:50pm ET | $21.81 | 324 | $7,064.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $20.90 | 324 | $6,769.98 | $6,776.09 |
$-294.84 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $20.32 | 333 | $6,766.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 12:20pm ET | $19.70 | 333 | $6,560.10 | $6,569.63 |
$-206.46 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $20.07 | 327 | $6,561.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:05pm ET | $19.45 | 327 | $6,360.15 | $6,368.53 |
$-201.10 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $18.58 | 342 | $6,356.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.94 | 342 | $6,135.48 | $6,147.94 |
$-220.59 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:20pm ET | $21.33 | 288 | $6,143.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $22.51 | 288 | $6,484.32 | $6,489.13 |
+$341.19 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 2:55pm ET | $24.02 | 270 | $6,485.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $23.27 | 270 | $6,282.09 | $6,285.82 |
$-203.31 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $21.73 | 289 | $6,278.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $20.89 | 289 | $6,035.77 | $6,043.06 |
$-242.76 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $20.25 | 298 | $6,033.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 11:15am ET | $19.62 | 298 | $5,846.76 | $5,856.81 |
$-186.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:50am ET | $21.60 | 271 | $5,853.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $20.81 | 271 | $5,638.16 | $5,641.36 |
$-215.45 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $21.87 | 257 | $5,620.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 9:45am ET | $23.31 | 257 | $5,989.39 | $6,010.15 |
+$368.79 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 12:05pm ET | $21.69 | 277 | $6,008.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $20.68 | 277 | $5,729.74 | $5,731.76 |
$-278.39 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $19.81 | 289 | $5,725.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $19.18 | 289 | $5,541.63 | $5,548.30 |
$-183.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $20.33 | 272 | $5,531.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 12:55pm ET | $19.65 | 272 | $5,344.80 | $5,361.98 |
$-186.32 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 2:30pm ET | $19.11 | 280 | $5,352.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $18.29 | 280 | $5,120.70 | $5,130.48 |
$-231.50 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 2:35pm ET | $20.27 | 253 | $5,129.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.94 | 253 | $5,550.85 | $5,551.75 |
+$421.27 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:25pm ET | $20.27 | 273 | $5,533.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 11:55am ET | $21.35 | 273 | $5,828.55 | $5,846.56 |
+$294.81 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 12:35pm ET | $20.59 | 283 | $5,826.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $21.69 | 283 | $6,139.68 | $6,159.27 |
+$312.71 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:40am ET | $19.38 | 317 | $6,141.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 2:55pm ET | $18.78 | 317 | $5,953.26 | $5,970.66 |
$-188.61 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.97 | 332 | $5,966.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 3:10pm ET | $18.87 | 332 | $6,264.81 | $6,269.43 |
+$298.77 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:55pm ET | $21.48 | 291 | $6,250.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 11:40am ET | $22.60 | 291 | $6,575.17 | $6,593.92 |
+$324.49 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:40am ET | $21.84 | 301 | $6,573.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.17 | 301 | $6,372.17 | $6,392.25 |
$-201.67 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:50pm ET | $21.40 | 298 | $6,377.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $20.27 | 298 | $6,040.46 | $6,054.94 |
$-337.31 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $20.55 | 294 | $6,041.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $19.91 | 294 | $5,853.54 | $5,866.78 |
$-188.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:40pm ET | $20.50 | 286 | $5,863.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $21.53 | 286 | $6,157.47 | $6,161.25 |
+$294.47 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 12:00pm ET | $24.55 | 250 | $6,137.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 1:45pm ET | $23.78 | 250 | $5,946.25 | $5,969.55 |
$-191.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,969.55
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,030.45
Total Return:
-40.30%