Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:18:02

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality 4.2/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.2

30-Day Momentum

6
-18.1%
30d Return
13%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$5,791.86
Current Value
$4,303.35
Period P&L
$-1,488.46
Max Drawdown
-51.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
6 / 16
Best Trade
+6.45%
Worst Trade
-9.68%
Avg Trade Return
-1.25%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$232,456.67
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,488.46
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,488.46
Gross Return
-25.70%
Net Return (after fees)
-25.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,791.86 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:10pm ET $15.51 373 $5,783.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $16.30 373 $6,079.90 $6,088.34 +$296.53
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 1:45pm ET $17.51 347 $6,077.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:45am ET $18.65 347 $6,469.82 $6,480.45 +$392.11
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
20h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET $19.67 329 $6,469.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $17.76 329 $5,843.30 $5,853.97 $-626.48
(-9.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET $15.65 374 $5,851.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 12:05pm ET $16.43 374 $6,146.69 $6,149.43 +$295.46
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:45am ET $18.33 335 $6,140.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 3:50pm ET $17.72 335 $5,934.53 $5,943.41 $-206.02
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 1:00pm ET $17.29 343 $5,930.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 1:40pm ET $16.74 343 $5,740.11 $5,753.04 $-190.37
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 2:55pm ET $17.77 323 $5,741.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:50am ET $17.23 323 $5,563.68 $5,575.39 $-177.65
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET $17.26 323 $5,573.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET $16.73 323 $5,403.79 $5,405.39 $-170.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:05am ET $16.25 332 $5,395.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $15.76 332 $5,230.66 $5,241.05 $-164.34
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 2:35pm ET $16.55 316 $5,229.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:45am ET $16.00 316 $5,056.00 $5,067.25 $-173.80
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:35am ET $16.35 309 $5,053.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET $15.82 309 $4,889.92 $4,903.48 $-163.77
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 11:50am ET $15.52 315 $4,890.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 3:40pm ET $16.31 315 $5,136.08 $5,149.18 +$245.70
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.2d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2026 10:40am ET $16.09 320 $5,148.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 14, 2026 10:40am ET $15.58 320 $4,985.60 $4,985.98 $-163.20
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 2:30pm ET $14.82 336 $4,981.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 2:35pm ET $15.63 336 $5,250.03 $5,254.81 +$268.83
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:30pm ET $16.86 311 $5,245.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET $16.32 311 $5,075.52 $5,085.31 $-169.50
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $16.30 311 $5,069.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:45am ET $15.81 311 $4,915.36 $4,931.37 $-153.94
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 12:05pm ET $16.11 306 $4,931.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET $15.45 306 $4,727.70 $4,727.88 $-203.49
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:35am ET $15.55 304 $4,725.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 12:50pm ET $16.35 304 $4,971.92 $4,974.12 +$246.24
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 2:00pm ET $16.12 308 $4,964.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $15.38 308 $4,736.52 $4,745.65 $-228.47
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET $15.52 305 $4,732.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET $15.05 305 $4,588.73 $4,602.30 $-143.35
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2h held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $15.65 294 $4,599.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET $15.10 294 $4,439.40 $4,442.07 $-160.23
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 10:45am ET $15.35 289 $4,437.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET $14.88 289 $4,298.88 $4,303.35 $-138.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,303.35
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,696.65
Total Return: -56.97%
Back to Marcus Reversal