Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:34:19

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

7
-12.3%
30d Return
22%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6 Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-27 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$1,740.90
Current Value
$1,363.32
Period P&L
$-377.65
Max Drawdown
-88.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
8 / 20
Best Trade
+13.19%
Worst Trade
-7.58%
Avg Trade Return
-0.68%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$92,065.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-377.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$-377.65
Gross Return
-21.69%
Net Return (after fees)
-21.69%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $1,740.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 12:10pm ET $28.63 59 $1,689.17
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:20am ET $27.66 59 $1,631.65 $1,643.92 $-57.52
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET $27.29 60 $1,637.63
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET $26.28 60 $1,576.80 $1,583.09 $-60.83
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held
3 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 12:25pm ET $27.70 57 $1,579.18
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $31.36 57 $1,787.52 $1,791.43 +$208.34
(+13.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:05pm ET $34.30 52 $1,783.61
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 1:20pm ET $33.16 52 $1,724.32 $1,732.14 $-59.29
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
5 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 12:25pm ET $35.11 49 $1,720.39
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $33.97 49 $1,664.77 $1,676.52 $-55.62
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
6 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 10:10am ET $32.24 51 $1,644.49
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:40am ET $31.25 51 $1,593.75 $1,625.78 $-50.74
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $30.43 53 $1,612.79
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:45am ET $32.21 53 $1,707.13 $1,720.12 +$94.34
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
8 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 10:20am ET $32.75 52 $1,702.75
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:40am ET $34.54 52 $1,796.08 $1,813.45 +$93.33
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
9 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 3:10pm ET $37.06 48 $1,778.82
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:20am ET $39.53 48 $1,897.20 $1,931.83 +$118.38
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
10 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 12:15pm ET $45.88 42 $1,927.17
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $48.66 42 $2,043.72 $2,048.38 +$116.55
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $48.42 42 $2,033.63
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:50am ET $46.69 42 $1,960.98 $1,975.73 $-72.65
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 3:10pm ET $47.32 41 $1,940.12
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $44.97 41 $1,843.85 $1,879.46 $-96.27
(-5.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET $44.08 42 $1,851.36
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:10am ET $42.59 42 $1,788.94 $1,817.04 $-62.42
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:10am ET $35.90 50 $1,795.01
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 10:40am ET $34.58 50 $1,729.25 $1,751.28 $-65.76
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 11:50am ET $30.25 57 $1,724.25
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:40am ET $31.87 57 $1,816.59 $1,843.62 +$92.34
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:00am ET $30.30 60 $1,818.00
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET $29.39 60 $1,763.10 $1,788.72 $-54.90
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 11:30am ET $29.16 61 $1,778.46
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:25pm ET $28.24 61 $1,722.34 $1,732.60 $-56.12
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 3:05pm ET $35.88 48 $1,722.24
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $33.16 48 $1,591.68 $1,602.04 $-130.56
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET $32.88 48 $1,578.24
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $31.88 48 $1,530.24 $1,554.04 $-48.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 1:20pm ET $31.82 48 $1,527.26
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $30.86 48 $1,481.28 $1,508.06 $-45.98
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 2:00pm ET $28.52 52 $1,483.04
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:45am ET $27.55 52 $1,432.60 $1,457.62 $-50.44
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:45am ET $27.71 52 $1,440.92
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET $26.86 52 $1,396.98 $1,413.68 $-43.94
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $26.17 54 $1,413.18
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 2:05pm ET $27.57 54 $1,488.51 $1,489.01 +$75.33
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $28.47 52 $1,480.18
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $27.52 52 $1,431.04 $1,439.87 $-49.14
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 3:10pm ET $27.57 52 $1,433.64
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:05pm ET $26.65 52 $1,385.54 $1,391.77 $-48.10
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
26 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 12:05pm ET $25.12 55 $1,381.60
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $24.18 55 $1,329.90 $1,340.07 $-51.70
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
27 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:10am ET $23.98 55 $1,318.90
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 11:50am ET $25.23 55 $1,387.38 $1,408.55 +$68.48
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
28 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 1:15pm ET $31.25 45 $1,406.03
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $30.24 45 $1,360.80 $1,363.32 $-45.23
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $1,363.32
Net Profit/Loss: $-8,636.68
Total Return: -86.37%
Back to Marcus Reversal