Compendium › Marcus Reversal › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-25 to present • 25 trades in period

-25.75%
Last 3 Months Return
$1,153.85
Current Value
24%
Win Rate
$1,553.98
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:21:22

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

20
+3.3%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.2 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$1,553.98
Current Value
$1,153.85
Period P&L
$-400.19
Max Drawdown
-88.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
6 / 19
Best Trade
+6.47%
Worst Trade
-3.84%
Avg Trade Return
-1.12%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$63,788.90
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-400.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-400.19
Gross Return
-25.75%
Net Return (after fees)
-25.75%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $1,553.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 1:20pm ET $31.82 48 $1,527.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $30.86 48 $1,481.28 $1,508.06 $-45.98
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 2:00pm ET $28.52 52 $1,483.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:45am ET $27.55 52 $1,432.60 $1,457.62 $-50.44
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 10:45am ET $27.71 52 $1,440.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET $26.86 52 $1,396.98 $1,413.68 $-43.94
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET $26.17 54 $1,413.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 2:05pm ET $27.57 54 $1,488.51 $1,489.01 +$75.33
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET $28.47 52 $1,480.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET $27.52 52 $1,431.04 $1,439.87 $-49.14
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 3:10pm ET $27.57 52 $1,433.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:05pm ET $26.65 52 $1,385.54 $1,391.77 $-48.10
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 12:05pm ET $25.12 55 $1,381.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $24.18 55 $1,329.90 $1,340.07 $-51.70
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:10am ET $23.98 55 $1,318.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 11:50am ET $25.23 55 $1,387.38 $1,408.55 +$68.48
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 1:15pm ET $31.25 45 $1,406.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $30.24 45 $1,360.80 $1,363.32 $-45.23
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET $29.90 45 $1,345.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET $28.98 45 $1,304.10 $1,322.14 $-41.18
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET $27.49 48 $1,319.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 11:40am ET $26.65 48 $1,278.96 $1,281.58 $-40.56
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET $27.81 46 $1,279.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $29.61 46 $1,362.06 $1,364.38 +$82.80
(+6.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET $30.75 44 $1,353.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET $29.57 44 $1,301.08 $1,312.46 $-51.92
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 11:15am ET $32.37 40 $1,294.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 1:15pm ET $31.40 40 $1,255.80 $1,273.46 $-39.00
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 12:00pm ET $40.72 31 $1,262.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 3:35pm ET $39.40 31 $1,221.25 $1,232.54 $-40.92
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET $38.01 32 $1,216.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 10:45am ET $36.81 32 $1,177.92 $1,194.30 $-38.24
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 1:10pm ET $37.22 32 $1,191.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 11:25am ET $36.10 32 $1,155.04 $1,158.14 $-36.16
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 1:30pm ET $36.86 31 $1,142.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $35.54 31 $1,101.74 $1,117.22 $-40.92
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET $37.94 29 $1,100.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $36.56 29 $1,060.24 $1,077.06 $-40.16
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.7d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $36.43 29 $1,056.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $38.71 29 $1,122.59 $1,143.18 +$66.12
(+6.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 12:10pm ET $40.72 28 $1,140.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $39.43 28 $1,104.04 $1,107.06 $-36.12
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 12:20pm ET $38.29 28 $1,072.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:30am ET $40.32 28 $1,128.96 $1,163.90 +$56.84
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:30am ET $37.60 30 $1,128.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:55am ET $36.46 30 $1,093.80 $1,129.70 $-34.20
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
24 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $36.10 31 $1,119.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET $38.05 31 $1,179.55 $1,190.15 +$60.45
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held
25 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $39.65 30 $1,189.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 12:25pm ET $38.44 30 $1,153.20 $1,153.85 $-36.30
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $1,153.85
Net Profit/Loss: $-8,846.15
Total Return: -88.46%
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