Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:54:23

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.5 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-20.2%
EMA20 Dist
-19.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.2/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 24.6/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 23.9

30-Day Momentum

2
-15.7%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,801.67
Current Value
$15,189.16
Period P&L
$-1,612.48
Max Drawdown
-43.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.14

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
5 / 11
Best Trade
+5.88%
Worst Trade
-3.96%
Avg Trade Return
-0.56%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$547,918.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,612.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,612.48
Gross Return
-9.60%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.60%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SNOW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,801.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET $231.38 72 $16,659.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 9:30am ET $222.79 72 $16,040.52 $16,182.44 $-619.20
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET $225.00 71 $15,975.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:30am ET $237.49 71 $16,861.79 $17,069.23 +$886.79
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
2h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:40am ET $247.17 69 $17,054.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:45am ET $261.70 69 $18,056.96 $18,071.46 +$1,002.23
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 10:40am ET $258.44 69 $17,832.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:25am ET $271.89 69 $18,760.75 $18,999.85 +$928.39
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 3:40pm ET $276.33 68 $18,790.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:35pm ET $267.28 68 $18,175.04 $18,384.45 $-615.40
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $271.95 67 $18,220.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $263.27 67 $17,639.09 $17,803.22 $-581.23
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 11:10am ET $270.73 65 $17,597.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:40am ET $262.35 65 $17,052.75 $17,258.20 $-545.02
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 10:55am ET $264.28 65 $17,178.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:00am ET $255.64 65 $16,616.60 $16,696.60 $-561.60
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 3:50pm ET $285.27 58 $16,545.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:40am ET $301.67 58 $17,496.86 $17,647.95 +$951.35
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 1:15pm ET $311.87 56 $17,464.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2026 9:40am ET $328.30 56 $18,384.52 $18,567.75 +$919.80
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 10:55am ET $332.28 55 $18,275.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 10:55am ET $322.18 55 $17,719.90 $18,012.25 $-555.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 1:25pm ET $318.34 56 $17,827.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET $307.50 56 $17,220.00 $17,405.21 $-607.04
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $328.95 52 $17,105.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 12:45pm ET $318.85 52 $16,580.20 $16,880.01 $-525.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 11:10am ET $371.29 45 $16,708.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 3:50pm ET $358.29 45 $16,122.83 $16,294.78 $-585.23
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7h held
15 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 9:45am ET $337.00 48 $16,176.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:40am ET $323.65 48 $15,535.44 $15,654.22 $-640.56
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 2:05pm ET $333.80 46 $15,354.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:55am ET $323.69 46 $14,889.74 $15,189.16 $-465.06
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,189.16
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,189.16
Total Return: +51.89%
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