Compendium › Marcus Reversal › SOFI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SOFI
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 23 trades in period

-3.26%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,120.45
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$14,596.60
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:27:08

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.5/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 26.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 25.5

30-Day Momentum

6
-0.3%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-20 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,596.60
Current Value
$14,120.45
Period P&L
$-476.13
Max Drawdown
-35.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
9 / 14
Best Trade
+10.21%
Worst Trade
-12.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.07%
Avg Hold Time
2.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$663,633.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-476.13
Net P&L (after fees)
$-476.13
Gross Return
-3.26%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.26%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,596.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 1:30pm ET $17.16 862 $14,791.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET $16.62 862 $14,326.44 $14,337.97 $-465.48
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET $16.88 849 $14,326.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $16.25 849 $13,796.25 $13,807.35 $-530.63
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $15.68 880 $13,798.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $15.19 880 $13,371.60 $13,380.55 $-426.80
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 3:45pm ET $15.81 846 $13,371.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $15.18 846 $12,842.28 $12,851.80 $-528.75
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $16.07 799 $12,835.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $17.70 799 $14,146.29 $14,162.16 +$1,310.36
(+10.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:30am ET $15.97 886 $14,149.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:50pm ET $16.77 886 $14,858.22 $14,870.96 +$708.80
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET $17.68 840 $14,855.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 12:25pm ET $18.58 840 $15,611.40 $15,626.96 +$756.00
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 1:10pm ET $19.05 820 $15,620.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:30am ET $20.09 820 $16,477.90 $16,483.94 +$856.98
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET $19.23 857 $16,477.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET $18.61 857 $15,953.05 $15,959.71 $-524.23
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 11:00am ET $18.74 851 $15,943.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $16.48 851 $14,024.48 $14,040.70 $-1,919.01
(-12.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:30pm ET $16.13 870 $14,028.75 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 11:55am ET $15.63 870 $13,598.10 $13,610.05 $-430.65
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
12 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 10:00am ET $16.06 847 $13,598.59 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 12:55pm ET $15.56 847 $13,183.55 $13,195.02 $-415.03
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held
13 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $15.42 855 $13,184.10 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 10:15am ET $16.28 855 $13,919.40 $13,930.32 +$735.30
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
14 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:30am ET $15.13 921 $13,930.13 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:45am ET $15.90 921 $14,648.50 $14,648.70 +$718.38
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
15 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 1:35pm ET $15.95 918 $14,642.10 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 11:30am ET $16.78 918 $15,399.54 $15,406.14 +$757.44
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
16 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 2:05pm ET $18.32 840 $15,388.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $17.74 840 $14,903.20 $14,920.54 $-485.60
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET $18.06 826 $14,913.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 3:00pm ET $17.49 826 $14,446.74 $14,453.85 $-466.69
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 3:00pm ET $16.69 865 $14,441.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:15am ET $16.11 865 $13,939.47 $13,952.15 $-501.70
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 2:00pm ET $16.49 846 $13,946.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $15.98 846 $13,519.08 $13,524.92 $-427.23
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET $16.11 839 $13,516.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $17.31 839 $14,518.90 $14,527.44 +$1,002.52
(+7.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:55am ET $17.29 840 $14,525.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET $18.18 840 $15,275.40 $15,277.73 +$750.29
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET $17.51 872 $15,273.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $16.75 872 $14,606.00 $14,610.65 $-667.08
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET $17.87 817 $14,599.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $17.27 817 $14,109.59 $14,120.45 $-490.20
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,120.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,120.45
Total Return: +41.20%
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