Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:44:30

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.8/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
0.8/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 24.1/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 24.0

30-Day Momentum

7
+1.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 9.7 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,610.67
Current Value
$13,420.73
Period P&L
$-1,189.92
Max Drawdown
-35.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
7 / 13
Best Trade
+6.50%
Worst Trade
-4.60%
Avg Trade Return
-0.33%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$551,622.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,189.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,189.92
Gross Return
-8.14%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.14%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,610.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET $17.87 817 $14,599.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $17.27 817 $14,109.59 $14,120.45 $-490.20
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:10pm ET $17.76 794 $14,105.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 12:50pm ET $18.65 794 $14,810.96 $14,826.00 +$705.55
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET $18.54 799 $14,813.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET $17.88 799 $14,286.12 $14,298.42 $-527.58
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET $17.34 824 $14,289.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 10:40am ET $18.27 824 $15,056.62 $15,065.24 +$766.82
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:45am ET $18.93 795 $15,053.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:40am ET $18.32 795 $14,564.40 $14,576.32 $-488.92
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 11:40am ET $18.36 793 $14,563.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET $17.81 793 $14,119.37 $14,132.24 $-444.08
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $17.27 818 $14,130.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $16.51 818 $13,505.18 $13,506.47 $-625.77
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET $17.08 790 $13,493.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:10am ET $16.57 790 $13,086.35 $13,099.54 $-406.93
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 1:10pm ET $16.53 792 $13,091.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 9:40am ET $17.40 792 $13,780.80 $13,788.58 +$689.04
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET $16.42 839 $13,780.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET $15.73 839 $13,197.47 $13,205.48 $-583.10
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $15.26 865 $13,201.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 12:05pm ET $16.13 865 $13,948.13 $13,951.80 +$746.32
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 11:20am ET $18.65 748 $13,946.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $17.93 748 $13,415.38 $13,420.72 $-531.08
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 11:25am ET $18.23 736 $13,413.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 10:55am ET $17.67 736 $13,008.80 $13,015.92 $-404.80
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 11:15am ET $17.98 723 $12,999.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET $18.94 723 $13,693.62 $13,710.07 +$694.15
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $18.58 737 $13,697.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $17.73 737 $13,067.01 $13,079.94 $-630.13
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $17.52 746 $13,069.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $18.59 746 $13,870.97 $13,880.99 +$801.05
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $18.02 770 $13,875.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 11:05am ET $17.47 770 $13,451.90 $13,457.49 $-423.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 2:40pm ET $17.24 780 $13,443.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:00pm ET $16.66 780 $12,994.80 $13,008.99 $-448.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:00pm ET $16.76 775 $12,992.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $17.85 775 $13,837.62 $13,853.74 +$844.75
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET $16.94 817 $13,844.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET $16.42 817 $13,411.06 $13,420.73 $-433.01
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,420.73
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,420.73
Total Return: +34.21%
Back to Marcus Reversal