Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:08:56

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.3/35
Total Return
8.9/25
Win Rate
0.4/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 15.9/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 14.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,634.14
Current Value
$11,070.62
Period P&L
$2,436.45
Max Drawdown
-28.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.66

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
6 / 2
Best Trade
+10.41%
Worst Trade
-6.46%
Avg Trade Return
+3.31%
Avg Hold Time
9.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$152,970.71
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,436.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,436.45
Gross Return
+28.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+28.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,634.14 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 11:10am ET $505.45 17 $8,592.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 11:20am ET $531.17 17 $9,029.89 $9,071.32 +$437.15
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 1:00pm ET $534.71 16 $8,555.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET $500.18 16 $8,002.88 $8,518.92 $-552.40
(-6.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 10:40am ET $518.99 16 $8,303.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $573.00 16 $9,168.00 $9,383.08 +$864.16
(+10.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 9:35am ET $560.23 16 $8,963.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:00am ET $588.33 16 $9,413.28 $9,832.68 +$449.60
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 12:25pm ET $575.94 17 $9,790.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 11, 2026 3:40pm ET $605.47 17 $10,292.99 $10,334.69 +$502.01
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET $596.85 17 $10,146.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 11:00am ET $628.88 17 $10,690.96 $10,879.20 +$544.51
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:05pm ET $624.68 17 $10,619.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 11:00am ET $604.96 17 $10,284.24 $10,543.79 $-335.41
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 2, 2026 11:55am ET $605.56 17 $10,294.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 11:50am ET $636.55 17 $10,821.35 $11,070.62 +$526.83
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,070.62
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,070.62
Total Return: +10.71%
Back to Marcus Reversal