Compendium › Marcus Reversal › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 23 trades in period

-29.86%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,591.53
Current Value
26%
Win Rate
$9,397.94
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:21:22

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 5.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 5.4

30-Day Momentum

14
+2.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 19.2 Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,397.94
Current Value
$6,591.53
Period P&L
$-2,806.40
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.35

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
6 / 17
Best Trade
+5.91%
Worst Trade
-6.75%
Avg Trade Return
-1.45%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$344,361.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,806.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,806.40
Gross Return
-29.86%
Net Return (after fees)
-29.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,397.94 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $74.13 126 $9,340.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:00pm ET $71.82 126 $9,049.31 $9,106.96 $-290.97
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 3:35pm ET $74.21 122 $9,053.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $71.53 122 $8,726.65 $8,779.99 $-326.97
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET $78.51 111 $8,715.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:35am ET $75.99 111 $8,434.92 $8,499.75 $-280.24
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 1:05pm ET $76.76 110 $8,444.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 110 $8,088.30 $8,143.90 $-355.85
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $70.57 115 $8,115.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $74.74 115 $8,595.10 $8,623.45 +$479.55
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 11:00am ET $75.23 114 $8,576.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 12:35pm ET $72.92 114 $8,312.88 $8,360.11 $-263.34
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $75.09 111 $8,335.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 12:15pm ET $72.67 111 $8,066.36 $8,091.47 $-268.64
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 12:40pm ET $71.36 113 $8,063.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $66.54 113 $7,519.03 $7,547.39 $-544.08
(-6.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
9 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:50am ET $68.72 109 $7,490.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:35am ET $66.63 109 $7,262.66 $7,319.57 $-227.82
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:35am ET $63.99 114 $7,294.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET $62.00 114 $7,068.00 $7,093.28 $-226.29
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET $60.12 117 $7,034.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET $58.30 117 $6,821.09 $6,880.33 $-212.95
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET $63.72 107 $6,818.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 10:55am ET $67.24 107 $7,194.68 $7,256.43 +$376.10
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:40am ET $74.62 97 $7,238.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET $71.07 97 $6,893.79 $6,912.07 $-344.36
(-4.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET $73.36 94 $6,895.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 10:00am ET $77.04 94 $7,241.76 $7,257.98 +$345.91
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 10:50am ET $76.89 94 $7,227.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $73.27 94 $6,887.38 $6,918.17 $-339.81
(-4.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 1:10pm ET $72.29 95 $6,867.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 2:10pm ET $69.95 95 $6,644.99 $6,695.62 $-222.55
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET $69.86 95 $6,636.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:45am ET $73.68 95 $6,999.13 $7,058.05 +$362.43
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET $69.14 102 $7,052.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $72.75 102 $7,421.01 $7,426.78 +$368.73
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 8, 2026 2:40pm ET $72.49 102 $7,393.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $68.93 102 $7,030.86 $7,063.67 $-363.11
(-4.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 12:40pm ET $71.07 99 $7,035.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET $67.60 99 $6,692.40 $6,720.63 $-343.04
(-4.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $69.05 97 $6,697.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $66.93 97 $6,492.69 $6,515.47 $-205.16
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 10:45am ET $71.16 91 $6,475.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $74.89 91 $6,814.99 $6,854.61 +$339.14
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Sep 22, 2026 11:40am ET $79.79 85 $6,782.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET $76.70 85 $6,519.50 $6,591.53 $-263.08
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,591.53
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,408.47
Total Return: -34.08%
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