Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 23:32:01

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality 27.9/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 27.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,929.13
Current Value
$15,506.52
Period P&L
$577.36
Max Drawdown
-34.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
6 / 6
Best Trade
+5.43%
Worst Trade
-9.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.45%
Avg Hold Time
5.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$331,672.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$577.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$577.36
Gross Return
+3.87%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.87%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,929.13 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:35pm ET $380.76 39 $14,849.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 11:45am ET $400.14 39 $15,605.32 $15,684.84 +$755.68
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 12:30pm ET $427.88 36 $15,403.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:45am ET $413.79 36 $14,896.44 $15,177.78 $-507.06
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:10pm ET $414.96 36 $14,938.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 3:10pm ET $402.26 36 $14,481.36 $14,720.40 $-457.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 1:55pm ET $408.73 36 $14,714.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET $395.40 36 $14,234.58 $14,240.70 $-479.70
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 12:15pm ET $395.90 35 $13,856.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $381.29 35 $13,345.15 $13,729.35 $-511.35
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET $375.36 36 $13,512.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $340.16 36 $12,245.76 $12,462.15 $-1,267.20
(-9.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
7 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 10:30am ET $311.00 40 $12,440.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 10:20am ET $301.56 40 $12,062.40 $12,084.39 $-377.76
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
8 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:45am ET $302.61 39 $11,801.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET $318.12 39 $12,406.68 $12,689.47 +$605.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
9 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $321.95 39 $12,556.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 2:25pm ET $338.40 39 $13,197.60 $13,331.02 +$641.55
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.2d held
10 🟢 BUY Aug 17, 2026 1:00pm ET $339.64 39 $13,245.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET $357.03 39 $13,924.26 $14,009.32 +$678.30
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET $353.56 39 $13,788.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET $372.76 39 $14,537.64 $14,758.12 +$748.80
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET $360.98 40 $14,439.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 2:00pm ET $379.69 40 $15,187.80 $15,506.52 +$748.40
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,506.52
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,506.52
Total Return: +55.07%
Back to Marcus Reversal