Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:18:20

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.4 oversold
20d Trend
-22.6%
5d Trend
-9.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.7%
ATR%
4.9%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 5.6/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 5.4

30-Day Momentum

1
-5.4%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
5,070
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
65 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,360.69
Current Value
$6,098.62
Period P&L
$-262.08
Max Drawdown
-54.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
9
Winners / Losers
3 / 6
Best Trade
+8.23%
Worst Trade
-3.79%
Avg Trade Return
-0.14%
Avg Hold Time
10.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$114,799.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-262.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$-262.08
Gross Return
-4.12%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.12%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 UNH Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 65 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 9 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,360.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:30pm ET $400.97 15 $6,014.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:40am ET $422.23 15 $6,333.45 $6,559.30 +$318.90
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
20.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET $419.25 15 $6,288.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $453.75 15 $6,806.25 $7,076.80 +$517.50
(+8.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
17d held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 10:45am ET $425.80 16 $6,812.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 9:40am ET $411.13 16 $6,578.08 $6,842.08 $-234.72
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18d held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 3:40pm ET $414.02 16 $6,624.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET $401.36 16 $6,421.84 $6,639.60 $-202.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 13, 2026 10:45am ET $402.42 16 $6,438.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 12:05pm ET $390.19 16 $6,243.04 $6,443.95 $-195.65
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 1:30pm ET $385.61 16 $6,169.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 26, 2026 10:00am ET $405.73 16 $6,491.68 $6,765.87 +$321.92
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 10:00am ET $396.55 17 $6,741.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:50am ET $381.54 17 $6,486.18 $6,510.62 $-255.25
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 10:40am ET $389.84 16 $6,237.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:45am ET $377.83 16 $6,045.28 $6,318.46 $-192.16
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $383.93 16 $6,142.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 9:30am ET $370.19 16 $5,923.04 $6,098.62 $-219.84
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,098.62
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,901.38
Total Return: -39.01%
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