Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:26:47

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.7/35
Total Return
15.8/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
4.3/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 41.1/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 37.3

30-Day Momentum

31
+9.9%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 44.7 Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,672.30
Current Value
$17,264.65
Period P&L
$4,592.34
Max Drawdown
-25.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.55

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
9 / 5
Best Trade
+6.59%
Worst Trade
-3.57%
Avg Trade Return
+2.34%
Avg Hold Time
5.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$434,753.04
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,592.34
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,592.34
Gross Return
+36.24%
Net Return (after fees)
+36.24%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,672.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:30am ET $136.39 92 $12,547.88
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $131.62 92 $12,109.27 $12,223.58 $-438.61
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET $129.00 94 $12,126.00
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:55am ET $135.55 94 $12,741.70 $12,839.28 +$615.70
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $134.70 95 $12,796.50
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 95 $13,600.67 $13,643.45 +$804.17
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET $140.70 96 $13,507.20
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $147.74 96 $14,183.52 $14,319.77 +$676.32
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $151.16 94 $14,209.51
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:35am ET $159.02 94 $14,947.88 $15,058.14 +$738.37
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET $159.37 94 $14,980.78
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $168.39 94 $15,828.66 $15,906.02 +$847.88
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
7 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $170.40 93 $15,847.20
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:35am ET $178.93 93 $16,640.49 $16,699.31 +$793.29
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 3:10pm ET $177.33 94 $16,669.02
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $172.00 94 $16,168.00 $16,198.29 $-501.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
9 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:25pm ET $175.64 92 $16,158.87
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 10:00am ET $184.49 92 $16,973.08 $17,012.50 +$814.21
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
10 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:05am ET $183.13 92 $16,847.96
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $193.02 92 $17,757.84 $17,922.38 +$909.88
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $195.71 91 $17,809.62
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $188.73 91 $17,174.43 $17,287.19 $-635.19
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $184.86 93 $17,191.98
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $178.74 93 $16,622.82 $16,718.03 $-569.16
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET $178.21 93 $16,573.53
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $189.95 93 $17,665.35 $17,809.85 +$1,091.82
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET $189.46 94 $17,809.24
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $183.66 94 $17,264.04 $17,264.65 $-545.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,264.65
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,264.65
Total Return: +72.65%
Back to Marcus Reversal