XRPUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-06-24 to present • 47 trades in period
-12.98%
Last 3 Months Return
$292.96
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$165.94
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality
3.0/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 3.0
30-Day Momentum
10
-10.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
24
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 1.00×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,811
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-06-24 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
94 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$165.94
Current Value
$292.96
Period P&L
$-21.54
Max Drawdown
-96.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
20 /
27
Best Trade
+5.86%
Worst Trade
-3.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.42%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$25,377.91
Estimated Fees
$63.44
Gross P&L
$-21.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$-84.98
Gross Return
-12.98%
Net Return (after fees)
-51.21%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 94 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $165.94 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 4:20am ET | $1.10 | 228 | $250.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $1.07 | 228 | $243.10 | $243.10 |
$-8.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:30am ET | $1.07 | 228 | $243.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $1.02 | 228 | $233.64 | $233.64 |
$-10.65 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $1.02 | 230 | $233.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $1.07 | 230 | $245.52 | $245.52 |
+$10.68 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 27, 2026 1:05pm ET | $1.06 | 232 | $245.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 8:55am ET | $1.03 | 232 | $238.09 | $238.09 |
$-8.64 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:00am ET | $1.03 | 232 | $238.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 5:40am ET | $1.08 | 232 | $250.34 | $250.34 |
+$11.03 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $1.09 | 230 | $250.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 4, 2026 12:45am ET | $1.14 | 230 | $263.18 | $263.18 |
+$11.56 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 4, 2026 1:55am ET | $1.14 | 231 | $263.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:40pm ET | $1.10 | 231 | $254.78 | $254.78 |
$-9.70 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 9:45pm ET | $1.10 | 231 | $254.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 12, 2026 11:35pm ET | $1.07 | 231 | $246.67 | $246.67 |
$-9.36 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 6:15am ET | $1.08 | 229 | $246.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 1:05am ET | $1.14 | 229 | $260.53 | $260.53 |
+$12.59 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 21, 2026 2:10am ET | $1.13 | 231 | $260.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:15am ET | $1.10 | 231 | $252.64 | $252.64 |
$-9.18 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.3d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $1.10 | 230 | $252.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 7:05pm ET | $1.06 | 230 | $244.92 | $244.92 |
$-8.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 7:10pm ET | $1.06 | 230 | $244.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 7:35pm ET | $1.03 | 230 | $237.50 | $237.50 |
$-8.63 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 7:40pm ET | $1.03 | 231 | $237.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET | $0.9983 | 231 | $230.14 | $230.14 |
$-8.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 11:00am ET | $0.9934 | 232 | $230.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:25am ET | $1.05 | 232 | $242.57 | $242.57 |
+$11.24 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $1.05 | 230 | $242.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 5:10pm ET | $1.11 | 230 | $255.65 | $255.65 |
+$11.84 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 6:55pm ET | $1.10 | 232 | $255.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 5:10am ET | $1.16 | 232 | $269.38 | $269.38 |
+$12.42 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1.26 | 213 | $269.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 3:15pm ET | $1.22 | 213 | $261.24 | $261.24 |
$-9.47 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 3:30pm ET | $1.23 | 212 | $261.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:50pm ET | $1.29 | 212 | $274.58 | $274.58 |
+$12.00 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 7:00am ET | $1.38 | 198 | $274.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 7:20pm ET | $1.46 | 198 | $289.03 | $289.03 |
+$13.04 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 1:40am ET | $1.51 | 192 | $289.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 3:15am ET | $1.59 | 192 | $304.56 | $304.56 |
+$14.05 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 4:30am ET | $1.51 | 201 | $304.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 22, 2026 6:10am ET | $1.47 | 201 | $294.92 | $294.92 |
$-11.14 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 22, 2026 6:15am ET | $1.46 | 202 | $294.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $1.55 | 202 | $312.19 | $312.19 |
+$15.76 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 23, 2026 11:20am ET | $1.49 | 209 | $312.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 9:55am ET | $1.45 | 209 | $302.75 | $302.75 |
$-10.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 1:10pm ET | $1.47 | 207 | $302.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 5:10pm ET | $1.42 | 207 | $293.17 | $293.17 |
$-11.07 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 5:25pm ET | $1.43 | 206 | $293.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $1.38 | 206 | $284.27 | $284.27 |
$-10.35 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $1.39 | 205 | $284.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $1.46 | 205 | $298.82 | $298.82 |
+$13.09 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 1:50pm ET | $1.46 | 205 | $298.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 5:35am ET | $1.41 | 205 | $289.51 | $289.51 |
$-10.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 5:40am ET | $1.41 | 205 | $289.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1.37 | 205 | $280.57 | $280.57 |
$-10.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1.37 | 205 | $280.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 4:55am ET | $1.33 | 205 | $272.11 | $272.11 |
$-9.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.6d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 5:00am ET | $1.33 | 205 | $272.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $1.40 | 205 | $286.48 | $286.48 |
+$12.97 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 6:20pm ET | $1.45 | 197 | $286.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 8:35am ET | $1.41 | 197 | $277.23 | $277.23 |
$-10.65 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 8:40am ET | $1.42 | 196 | $277.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 6:35am ET | $1.37 | 196 | $268.56 | $268.56 |
$-10.04 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 8:35am ET | $1.37 | 196 | $268.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 7:05am ET | $1.32 | 196 | $260.06 | $260.06 |
$-9.83 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 7:10am ET | $1.32 | 197 | $260.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $1.39 | 197 | $273.19 | $273.19 |
+$11.80 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $1.39 | 196 | $273.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1.35 | 196 | $264.81 | $264.81 |
$-9.73 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 6:35pm ET | $1.35 | 197 | $264.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 12:20pm ET | $1.42 | 197 | $278.22 | $278.22 |
+$12.06 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 5:25pm ET | $1.45 | 191 | $278.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 1:10am ET | $1.41 | 191 | $269.26 | $269.26 |
$-10.33 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 1:15am ET | $1.40 | 192 | $269.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1.35 | 192 | $258.94 | $258.94 |
$-11.64 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.4h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1.32 | 196 | $258.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 4:20pm ET | $1.28 | 196 | $250.39 | $250.39 |
$-9.82 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 4:25pm ET | $1.28 | 196 | $250.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $1.34 | 196 | $263.06 | $263.06 |
+$11.38 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:40pm ET | $1.40 | 188 | $263.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 4:45am ET | $1.47 | 188 | $276.65 | $276.65 |
+$12.24 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 8:10am ET | $1.48 | 186 | $276.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 6:05pm ET | $1.56 | 186 | $291.31 | $291.31 |
+$13.24 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 8:10pm ET | $1.53 | 190 | $291.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 11:40pm ET | $1.62 | 190 | $307.86 | $307.86 |
+$15.06 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 1:25am ET | $1.61 | 191 | $307.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 8:05am ET | $1.56 | 191 | $297.90 | $297.90 |
$-11.47 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.7h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 8:10am ET | $1.57 | 190 | $297.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $1.51 | 190 | $287.76 | $287.76 |
$-11.61 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 10:25am ET | $1.52 | 189 | $287.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 4:50am ET | $1.47 | 189 | $279.00 | $279.00 |
$-10.18 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 24, 2026 4:55am ET | $1.48 | 189 | $279.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 8:30pm ET | $1.55 | 189 | $292.96 | $292.96 |
+$12.53 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15.6h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$292.96
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,707.04
Total Return:
-97.07%