XRPUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 36 trades in period
-27.16%
Last 3 Months Return
$327.70
Current Value
36%
Win Rate
$379.92
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.7 oversold
20d Trend
-37.8%
5d Trend
-40.3%
EMA20 Dist
-38.0%
ATR%
13.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
3.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 3.4
30-Day Momentum
34
+10.3%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 43.4
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)
Period Start Capital
$379.92
Current Value
$327.70
Period P&L
$-103.19
Max Drawdown
-96.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)
Trades in Period
36
Winners / Losers
13 /
23
Best Trade
+5.71%
Worst Trade
-4.03%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$24,426.86
Estimated Fees
$61.07
Gross P&L
$-103.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-164.26
Gross Return
-27.16%
Net Return (after fees)
-43.23%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XRPUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 3 Months - 36 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $379.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET | $1.15 | 330 | $379.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:35pm ET | $1.21 | 330 | $400.56 | $398.61 |
+$18.84 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET | $1.30 | 308 | $398.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 5:25am ET | $1.36 | 308 | $418.74 | $416.69 |
+$18.09 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 11:50am ET | $1.50 | 277 | $416.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 1:20pm ET | $1.45 | 277 | $403.22 | $401.17 |
$-15.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $1.46 | 276 | $401.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:30am ET | $1.41 | 276 | $388.76 | $386.79 |
$-14.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:35am ET | $1.41 | 273 | $386.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $1.44 | 273 | $393.73 | $391.77 |
+$4.99 (+1.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:20am ET | $1.43 | 273 | $391.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:35pm ET | $1.39 | 273 | $378.85 | $378.85 |
$-14.85 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 11:45pm ET | $1.39 | 273 | $378.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:55am ET | $1.34 | 273 | $367.32 | $367.32 |
$-13.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 1:50pm ET | $1.47 | 249 | $367.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1.43 | 249 | $355.87 | $355.87 |
$-13.26 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $1.42 | 250 | $355.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 7:35pm ET | $1.38 | 250 | $344.61 | $344.61 |
$-13.02 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 7:40pm ET | $1.37 | 251 | $344.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 10:30pm ET | $1.33 | 251 | $333.94 | $333.94 |
$-12.37 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 10:35pm ET | $1.33 | 251 | $333.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 7:55am ET | $1.40 | 251 | $351.32 | $351.32 |
+$15.67 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.4d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $1.45 | 241 | $351.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $1.41 | 241 | $340.23 | $340.23 |
$-12.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:45am ET | $1.41 | 242 | $340.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $1.36 | 242 | $329.93 | $329.93 |
$-11.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $1.36 | 243 | $329.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET | $1.31 | 243 | $319.73 | $319.73 |
$-11.82 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
15h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:45am ET | $1.32 | 242 | $319.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 4:10am ET | $1.28 | 242 | $308.93 | $308.93 |
$-12.37 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 4:15am ET | $1.28 | 241 | $308.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:55pm ET | $1.35 | 241 | $324.41 | $324.41 |
+$13.90 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 11:15pm ET | $1.41 | 229 | $324.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 4:55am ET | $1.37 | 229 | $314.38 | $314.38 |
$-11.63 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 7:35am ET | $1.37 | 229 | $314.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $1.45 | 229 | $332.32 | $332.32 |
+$16.32 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 4:35pm ET | $1.45 | 230 | $332.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:05am ET | $1.40 | 230 | $321.82 | $321.82 |
$-12.13 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:10am ET | $1.40 | 230 | $321.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $1.35 | 230 | $311.35 | $311.35 |
$-12.05 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $1.35 | 230 | $311.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $1.42 | 230 | $327.67 | $327.67 |
+$14.72 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $1.42 | 231 | $327.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:45am ET | $1.38 | 231 | $317.60 | $317.60 |
$-11.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:55am ET | $1.38 | 231 | $317.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $1.45 | 231 | $333.75 | $333.75 |
+$14.52 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:45am ET | $1.43 | 233 | $333.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $1.51 | 233 | $352.26 | $352.26 |
+$16.79 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 4:15pm ET | $1.53 | 231 | $352.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 8:30am ET | $1.46 | 231 | $338.07 | $338.07 |
$-15.91 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 8:35am ET | $1.46 | 231 | $338.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 21, 2026 7:50pm ET | $1.41 | 231 | $326.26 | $326.26 |
$-13.48 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 4:35pm ET | $1.45 | 230 | $332.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 22, 2026 4:05am ET | $1.40 | 230 | $321.99 | $315.93 |
$-11.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 22, 2026 4:10am ET | $1.40 | 226 | $315.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $1.36 | 226 | $306.41 | $306.41 |
$-11.07 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:20am ET | $1.36 | 226 | $306.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 29, 2026 3:55pm ET | $1.32 | 226 | $297.16 | $297.16 |
$-10.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 29, 2026 4:00pm ET | $1.32 | 226 | $297.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 7:25pm ET | $1.38 | 226 | $312.51 | $312.51 |
+$13.82 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 8:35pm ET | $1.36 | 229 | $312.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $1.32 | 229 | $303.03 | $303.03 |
$-11.02 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 5:30pm ET | $1.35 | 224 | $303.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 8:15am ET | $1.42 | 224 | $318.20 | $318.20 |
+$13.62 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.6d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET | $1.40 | 228 | $318.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1.47 | 228 | $334.22 | $334.22 |
+$14.39 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 4:40pm ET | $1.45 | 231 | $334.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 19, 2026 6:05pm ET | $1.40 | 231 | $323.86 | $323.86 |
$-12.01 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 19, 2026 6:15pm ET | $1.40 | 231 | $323.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1.35 | 231 | $311.68 | $311.68 |
$-13.77 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1.35 | 231 | $311.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 12:20am ET | $1.42 | 231 | $327.70 | $327.70 |
+$14.42 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$327.70
Net Profit/Loss:
$-9,672.30
Total Return:
-96.72%