ADBE Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 37 trades in period
+13.85%
Last 6 Months Return
$6,710.57
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$5,893.99
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
3.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 3.9
30-Day Momentum
2
-11.4%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,893.99
Current Value
$6,710.57
Period P&L
$816.60
Max Drawdown
-42.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
16 /
21
Best Trade
+7.15%
Worst Trade
-7.25%
Avg Trade Return
+0.45%
Avg Hold Time
3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$461,294.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$816.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$816.60
Gross Return
+13.85%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.85%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,893.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.19 | 24 | $5,836.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $234.58 | 24 | $5,629.92 | $5,735.81 |
$-206.64 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $241.11 | 23 | $5,545.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $233.15 | 23 | $5,362.56 | $5,552.84 |
$-182.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:05pm ET | $240.56 | 23 | $5,532.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.26 | 23 | $5,318.89 | $5,338.85 |
$-213.99 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $226.25 | 23 | $5,203.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $237.69 | 23 | $5,466.87 | $5,601.97 |
+$263.12 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $235.17 | 23 | $5,408.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 23 | $5,785.65 | $5,978.71 |
+$376.74 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $247.74 | 24 | $5,945.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $238.41 | 24 | $5,721.84 | $5,754.79 |
$-223.92 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.71 | 23 | $5,536.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $253.36 | 23 | $5,827.28 | $6,045.63 |
+$290.84 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $253.10 | 23 | $5,821.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $245.45 | 23 | $5,645.35 | $5,869.68 |
$-175.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:10pm ET | $241.40 | 24 | $5,793.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $234.15 | 24 | $5,619.60 | $5,695.64 |
$-174.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $246.18 | 23 | $5,662.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.15 | 23 | $5,983.36 | $6,016.86 |
+$321.22 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.27 | 24 | $6,006.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $242.42 | 24 | $5,818.08 | $5,828.34 |
$-188.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $242.82 | 24 | $5,827.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $255.71 | 24 | $6,137.04 | $6,137.58 |
+$309.24 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 2:30pm ET | $272.80 | 22 | $6,001.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.17 | 22 | $5,811.63 | $5,947.72 |
$-189.86 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.34 | 23 | $5,895.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.51 | 23 | $5,669.73 | $5,721.63 |
$-226.09 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.70 | 23 | $5,559.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $233.66 | 23 | $5,374.18 | $5,536.71 |
$-184.92 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $235.62 | 23 | $5,419.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $227.99 | 23 | $5,243.66 | $5,361.11 |
$-175.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.40 | 26 | $5,262.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $195.82 | 26 | $5,091.19 | $5,189.90 |
$-171.21 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $193.16 | 26 | $5,022.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.65 | 26 | $5,373.03 | $5,540.64 |
+$350.74 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $204.10 | 27 | $5,510.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $217.38 | 27 | $5,869.39 | $5,899.47 |
+$358.83 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.46 | 27 | $5,817.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 11:20am ET | $226.78 | 27 | $6,123.06 | $6,205.24 |
+$305.77 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $214.09 | 28 | $5,994.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $226.50 | 28 | $6,342.00 | $6,552.72 |
+$347.48 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 2:45pm ET | $230.57 | 28 | $6,456.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.16 | 28 | $6,192.48 | $6,289.10 |
$-263.62 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 11:30am ET | $226.37 | 27 | $6,111.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $238.25 | 27 | $6,432.75 | $6,609.86 |
+$320.76 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $229.34 | 28 | $6,421.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $221.88 | 28 | $6,212.64 | $6,400.98 |
$-208.88 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $215.12 | 29 | $6,238.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 3:00pm ET | $225.96 | 29 | $6,552.84 | $6,715.34 |
+$314.36 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $240.51 | 27 | $6,493.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $252.80 | 27 | $6,825.60 | $7,047.04 |
+$331.70 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:05pm ET | $261.37 | 26 | $6,795.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 26 | $6,540.30 | $6,791.72 |
$-255.32 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.48 | 28 | $6,789.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $259.82 | 28 | $7,274.96 | $7,277.38 |
+$485.66 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.63 | 29 | $7,268.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2026 9:50am ET | $263.73 | 29 | $7,648.17 | $7,657.28 |
+$379.90 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 2:35pm ET | $272.01 | 28 | $7,616.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 2:35pm ET | $263.84 | 28 | $7,387.52 | $7,428.52 |
$-228.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $258.90 | 28 | $7,249.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $273.00 | 28 | $7,644.00 | $7,823.18 |
+$394.66 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $259.90 | 30 | $7,797.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 12:05pm ET | $251.63 | 30 | $7,548.96 | $7,575.14 |
$-248.04 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 3:15pm ET | $265.57 | 28 | $7,435.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $279.18 | 28 | $7,817.04 | $7,956.22 |
+$381.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $287.54 | 27 | $7,763.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $266.70 | 27 | $7,200.90 | $7,393.50 |
$-562.72 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.90 | 28 | $7,193.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 1:35pm ET | $249.01 | 28 | $6,972.42 | $7,172.72 |
$-220.78 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 2:35pm ET | $263.54 | 27 | $7,115.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $254.30 | 27 | $6,866.23 | $6,923.37 |
$-249.35 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.90 | 28 | $6,913.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 1:25pm ET | $239.30 | 28 | $6,700.40 | $6,710.57 |
$-212.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,710.57
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,289.43
Total Return:
-32.89%