Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:25:48

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
2.0/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality 37.1/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 36.1

30-Day Momentum

3
-9.8%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,791
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$16,596.97
Current Value
$16,463.55
Period P&L
$-133.44
Max Drawdown
-18.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
11 / 16
Best Trade
+7.03%
Worst Trade
-9.00%
Avg Trade Return
+0.23%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$902,200.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-133.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$-133.44
Gross Return
-0.80%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,596.97 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 12:55pm ET $222.02 71 $15,763.42
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $233.29 71 $16,563.59 $16,681.49 +$800.17
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 1:45pm ET $232.58 71 $16,513.18
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:55am ET $244.27 71 $17,343.26 $17,511.57 +$830.08
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET $243.70 71 $17,302.70
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 1:35pm ET $236.29 71 $16,776.24 $16,985.10 $-526.46
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 2:20pm ET $238.29 71 $16,918.59
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:50pm ET $230.98 71 $16,399.23 $16,465.74 $-519.37
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $234.25 70 $16,397.50
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $246.30 70 $17,240.65 $17,308.89 +$843.15
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET $240.72 71 $17,090.77
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $233.42 71 $16,572.83 $16,790.96 $-517.93
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 1:50pm ET $223.09 75 $16,731.75
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET $203.01 75 $15,226.12 $15,285.33 $-1,505.62
(-9.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 2:15pm ET $209.32 73 $15,280.36
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $208.92 73 $15,250.98 $15,255.95 $-29.38
(-0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
1.7h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $199.96 76 $15,196.96
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 10:50am ET $210.36 76 $15,987.35 $16,046.34 +$790.39
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:55am ET $204.36 78 $15,940.08
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET $215.37 78 $16,798.86 $16,905.12 +$858.78
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 10:45am ET $217.00 77 $16,709.00
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET $209.60 77 $16,139.20 $16,335.32 $-569.80
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 10:40am ET $213.96 76 $16,261.34
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 11:55am ET $207.49 76 $15,769.24 $15,843.22 $-492.10
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 12:05pm ET $213.25 74 $15,780.50
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET $206.54 74 $15,283.96 $15,346.68 $-496.54
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:50am ET $206.23 74 $15,261.02
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET $199.84 74 $14,788.16 $14,873.82 $-472.86
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET $200.85 74 $14,862.90
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:40am ET $211.04 74 $15,616.96 $15,627.88 +$754.06
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 12:15pm ET $209.28 74 $15,486.72
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $223.99 74 $16,575.26 $16,716.42 +$1,088.54
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 1:15pm ET $231.21 72 $16,647.12
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $245.23 72 $17,656.57 $17,725.87 +$1,009.45
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $247.33 71 $17,560.43
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $259.88 71 $18,451.48 $18,616.92 +$891.05
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET $262.09 71 $18,608.39
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 10:45am ET $275.25 71 $19,542.75 $19,551.28 +$934.36
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
20 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 12:30pm ET $273.87 71 $19,444.77
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 9:40am ET $264.94 71 $18,810.74 $18,917.25 $-634.03
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
21 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 10:35am ET $267.24 70 $18,706.80
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 10:15am ET $257.88 70 $18,051.25 $18,261.70 $-655.55
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
22 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:40pm ET $263.01 69 $18,147.35
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET $254.78 69 $17,579.82 $17,694.17 $-567.53
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $256.04 69 $17,666.76
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 1:05pm ET $248.35 69 $17,136.15 $17,163.56 $-530.61
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:15pm ET $251.26 68 $17,085.95
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 2:20pm ET $243.70 68 $16,571.60 $16,649.21 $-514.35
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:40pm ET $243.62 68 $16,566.16
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:45am ET $236.20 68 $16,061.60 $16,144.65 $-504.56
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:45am ET $235.73 68 $16,029.64
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $248.03 68 $16,866.04 $16,981.05 +$836.40
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 9:30am ET $244.18 69 $16,848.76
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:40am ET $236.68 69 $16,331.26 $16,463.55 $-517.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,463.55
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,463.55
Total Return: +64.64%
Back to Marcus Reversal