ARM Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 57 trades in period
+12.97%
Last 6 Months Return
$20,022.12
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$17,723.04
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
37
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
12.2/35
Total Return
17.0/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
37.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 37.1
30-Day Momentum
35
+14.0%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.1
Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$17,723.04
Current Value
$20,022.12
Period P&L
$2,299.08
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
57
Winners / Losers
25 /
32
Best Trade
+11.80%
Worst Trade
-8.27%
Avg Trade Return
+0.59%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,105,791.25
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,299.08
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,299.08
Gross Return
+12.97%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.97%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 57 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $17,723.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $135.65 | 115 | $15,599.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.35 | 115 | $17,060.82 | $17,191.83 |
+$1,461.08 (+9.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $159.32 | 107 | $17,047.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.31 | 107 | $15,762.17 | $15,906.76 |
$-1,285.07 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.43 | 111 | $15,810.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $137.87 | 111 | $15,303.85 | $15,400.32 |
$-506.44 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:20am ET | $155.40 | 99 | $15,384.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.71 | 99 | $14,722.78 | $14,738.51 |
$-661.81 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $148.72 | 99 | $14,723.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.04 | 99 | $14,260.45 | $14,275.68 |
$-462.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $146.95 | 97 | $14,253.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.46 | 97 | $15,176.62 | $15,198.63 |
+$922.95 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $159.77 | 95 | $15,178.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $167.86 | 95 | $15,946.70 | $15,967.18 |
+$768.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $174.41 | 91 | $15,871.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $183.20 | 91 | $16,671.20 | $16,767.07 |
+$799.89 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $203.38 | 82 | $16,677.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.94 | 82 | $18,199.20 | $18,288.80 |
+$1,521.73 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.49 | 81 | $18,183.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $217.30 | 81 | $17,601.30 | $17,706.41 |
$-582.39 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $201.94 | 87 | $17,568.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $194.24 | 87 | $16,899.31 | $17,036.94 |
$-669.47 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $210.94 | 80 | $16,875.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $203.70 | 80 | $16,295.60 | $16,457.34 |
$-579.60 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $205.22 | 80 | $16,417.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $228.92 | 80 | $18,313.39 | $18,353.18 |
+$1,895.84 (+11.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.65 | 82 | $18,256.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 11:50am ET | $214.83 | 82 | $17,616.06 | $17,712.35 |
$-640.83 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.54 | 85 | $17,555.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $217.65 | 85 | $18,500.25 | $18,657.12 |
+$944.77 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:20pm ET | $220.76 | 84 | $18,543.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $212.00 | 84 | $17,807.92 | $17,921.20 |
$-735.92 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:45am ET | $208.95 | 85 | $17,760.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 12:35pm ET | $221.16 | 85 | $18,798.59 | $18,959.04 |
+$1,037.84 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 1:05pm ET | $252.60 | 75 | $18,945.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $277.40 | 75 | $20,805.00 | $20,819.04 |
+$1,860.00 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 11:45am ET | $306.45 | 67 | $20,532.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:05am ET | $322.30 | 67 | $21,594.10 | $21,880.66 |
+$1,061.62 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $337.65 | 64 | $21,609.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 12:55pm ET | $355.59 | 64 | $22,758.03 | $23,029.09 |
+$1,148.43 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $409.62 | 56 | $22,938.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $393.27 | 56 | $22,023.12 | $22,113.49 |
$-915.60 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $393.51 | 56 | $22,036.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $380.23 | 56 | $21,292.60 | $21,369.53 |
$-743.96 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $378.97 | 56 | $21,222.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $362.01 | 56 | $20,272.28 | $20,419.60 |
$-949.93 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:25pm ET | $353.02 | 57 | $20,122.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $341.83 | 57 | $19,484.03 | $19,781.49 |
$-638.11 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $314.61 | 62 | $19,506.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 3:15pm ET | $304.96 | 62 | $18,907.52 | $19,182.88 |
$-598.61 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 12:25pm ET | $369.35 | 51 | $18,836.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $389.84 | 51 | $19,881.84 | $20,227.87 |
+$1,044.99 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:45am ET | $405.85 | 49 | $19,886.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 1:20pm ET | $426.65 | 49 | $20,906.09 | $21,247.31 |
+$1,019.44 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $430.52 | 49 | $21,095.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $416.68 | 49 | $20,417.56 | $20,569.40 |
$-677.91 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $373.53 | 55 | $20,544.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $361.16 | 55 | $19,863.68 | $19,888.93 |
$-680.47 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $349.80 | 56 | $19,588.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $334.97 | 56 | $18,758.32 | $19,058.73 |
$-830.20 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $314.27 | 60 | $18,856.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 11:10am ET | $331.14 | 60 | $19,868.40 | $20,070.63 |
+$1,011.90 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 11:30am ET | $353.49 | 56 | $19,795.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.11 | 56 | $19,046.44 | $19,321.63 |
$-749.00 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:55am ET | $327.43 | 59 | $19,318.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $317.40 | 59 | $18,726.60 | $18,729.86 |
$-591.77 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $326.95 | 57 | $18,636.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $305.93 | 57 | $17,438.01 | $17,531.72 |
$-1,198.14 (-6.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 11:10am ET | $298.40 | 58 | $17,307.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.53 | 58 | $18,880.75 | $19,104.98 |
+$1,573.26 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $324.03 | 58 | $18,793.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $301.93 | 58 | $17,512.23 | $17,823.47 |
$-1,281.51 (-6.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $282.95 | 62 | $17,542.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $273.70 | 62 | $16,969.40 | $17,249.97 |
$-573.50 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $257.24 | 67 | $17,235.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $244.04 | 67 | $16,350.66 | $16,365.55 |
$-884.42 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $269.86 | 60 | $16,191.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $285.53 | 60 | $17,131.80 | $17,305.75 |
+$940.20 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.5h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $280.48 | 61 | $17,109.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $271.72 | 61 | $16,574.92 | $16,771.39 |
$-534.36 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $254.01 | 66 | $16,764.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $267.44 | 66 | $17,651.04 | $17,657.44 |
+$886.05 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $240.88 | 73 | $17,583.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $230.45 | 73 | $16,822.67 | $16,896.24 |
$-761.20 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 11:35am ET | $234.76 | 71 | $16,667.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $258.32 | 71 | $18,340.72 | $18,569.00 |
+$1,672.76 (+10.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $222.71 | 83 | $18,484.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:30am ET | $235.74 | 83 | $19,566.82 | $19,651.23 |
+$1,082.23 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $274.58 | 71 | $19,494.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 10:05am ET | $288.97 | 71 | $20,516.64 | $20,673.04 |
+$1,021.81 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $279.00 | 74 | $20,646.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $269.50 | 74 | $19,943.00 | $19,970.04 |
$-703.00 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 12:55pm ET | $267.79 | 74 | $19,816.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $281.51 | 74 | $20,831.74 | $20,985.32 |
+$1,015.28 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $277.87 | 75 | $20,840.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.07 | 75 | $19,205.36 | $19,350.43 |
$-1,634.89 (-7.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $250.08 | 77 | $19,256.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $236.73 | 77 | $18,228.36 | $18,322.38 |
$-1,028.05 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 12:45pm ET | $242.58 | 75 | $18,193.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.20 | 75 | $19,139.63 | $19,268.51 |
+$946.13 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $248.80 | 77 | $19,157.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 12:35pm ET | $241.29 | 77 | $18,579.71 | $18,690.62 |
$-577.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $235.00 | 79 | $18,565.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.35 | 79 | $19,935.65 | $20,061.27 |
+$1,370.65 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $262.44 | 76 | $19,945.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.10 | 76 | $19,159.60 | $19,275.43 |
$-785.84 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 2:55pm ET | $264.23 | 72 | $19,024.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $242.38 | 72 | $17,451.36 | $17,702.23 |
$-1,573.20 (-8.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $246.14 | 71 | $17,475.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $260.13 | 71 | $18,469.23 | $18,695.52 |
+$993.29 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 56 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 12:10pm ET | $265.63 | 70 | $18,594.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $296.97 | 70 | $20,787.90 | $20,889.32 |
+$2,193.80 (+11.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 57 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 3:00pm ET | $331.42 | 63 | $20,879.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $317.65 | 63 | $20,012.26 | $20,022.12 |
$-867.20 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$20,022.12
Net Profit/Loss:
+$10,022.12
Total Return:
+100.22%