BTCUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 40 trades in period
+8.20%
Last 6 Months Return
$4,160.63
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$3,039.15
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
4.9/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.9
30-Day Momentum
30
+9.3%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 42.0
Conf: 0.70×
Accelerating (+25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
53,048
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
185 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$3,039.15
Current Value
$4,160.63
Period P&L
$249.31
Max Drawdown
-78.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
19 /
21
Best Trade
+5.73%
Worst Trade
-3.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.77%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$267,591.30
Estimated Fees
$668.98
Gross P&L
$249.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-419.66
Gross Return
+8.20%
Net Return (after fees)
-13.81%
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 185 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $3,039.15 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 22, 2026 4:35am ET | $68,617.20 | 0 | $3,167.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 7:00am ET | $66,494.30 | 0 | $3,069.63 | $3,069.63 |
$-113.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 7:05am ET | $66,412.50 | 0 | $3,069.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 5:20am ET | $69,920.30 | 0 | $3,231.76 | $3,231.76 |
+$146.38 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 7:45am ET | $69,652.70 | 0 | $3,231.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $73,286.20 | 0 | $3,400.35 | $3,400.35 |
+$152.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 12:30pm ET | $72,772.80 | 0 | $3,400.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 12, 2026 7:35pm ET | $70,576.40 | 0 | $3,297.72 | $3,297.72 |
$-119.37 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 1:35am ET | $70,799.80 | 0 | $3,297.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 6:50pm ET | $74,352.90 | 0 | $3,463.22 | $3,463.22 |
+$148.59 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 8:15pm ET | $74,349.90 | 0 | $3,463.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $78,210.90 | 0 | $3,643.07 | $3,643.07 |
+$162.08 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $77,217.40 | 0 | $3,643.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 19, 2026 1:55pm ET | $74,815.40 | 0 | $3,529.74 | $3,529.75 |
$-131.26 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 19, 2026 2:00pm ET | $74,824.00 | 0 | $3,529.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $78,632.40 | 0 | $3,709.41 | $3,709.41 |
+$161.56 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 12:45pm ET | $78,837.20 | 0 | $3,709.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 7:15am ET | $76,450.00 | 0 | $3,597.09 | $3,597.09 |
$-130.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 7:35am ET | $76,284.50 | 0 | $3,597.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 3, 2026 10:45pm ET | $80,150.50 | 0 | $3,779.39 | $3,779.39 |
+$163.85 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 1:25am ET | $80,037.00 | 0 | $3,779.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 17, 2026 7:45pm ET | $77,187.30 | 0 | $3,644.83 | $3,644.83 |
$-153.12 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 17, 2026 7:50pm ET | $77,222.80 | 0 | $3,644.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 23, 2026 3:55am ET | $74,447.10 | 0 | $3,513.82 | $3,513.82 |
$-148.91 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2026 4:00am ET | $74,505.70 | 0 | $3,513.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 8:05am ET | $72,231.20 | 0 | $3,406.55 | $3,406.55 |
$-124.57 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 8:10am ET | $72,035.00 | 0 | $3,406.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:05am ET | $69,740.00 | 0 | $3,298.02 | $3,298.02 |
$-125.29 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 3:10am ET | $69,871.30 | 0 | $3,298.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $67,753.80 | 0 | $3,198.07 | $3,198.07 |
$-116.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $67,937.70 | 0 | $3,198.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:45pm ET | $65,699.90 | 0 | $3,092.73 | $3,092.73 |
$-121.07 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 11:50pm ET | $65,565.00 | 0 | $3,092.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 8:30pm ET | $63,279.20 | 0 | $2,984.91 | $2,984.91 |
$-123.02 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 8:40pm ET | $63,063.20 | 0 | $2,984.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $60,700.00 | 0 | $2,873.05 | $2,873.05 |
$-126.50 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $60,575.20 | 0 | $2,873.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 7, 2026 6:15pm ET | $63,638.30 | 0 | $3,018.33 | $3,018.33 |
+$130.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 7, 2026 7:20pm ET | $62,840.60 | 0 | $3,018.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:15pm ET | $60,955.10 | 0 | $2,927.77 | $2,927.77 |
$-105.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $60,824.20 | 0 | $2,927.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $63,883.90 | 0 | $3,075.05 | $3,075.05 |
+$132.27 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:10pm ET | $63,737.70 | 0 | $3,075.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 11:50am ET | $67,144.90 | 0 | $3,239.43 | $3,239.43 |
+$148.60 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $66,780.00 | 0 | $3,239.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 7:00am ET | $64,736.70 | 0 | $3,140.31 | $3,140.31 |
$-115.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 7:05am ET | $64,649.90 | 0 | $3,140.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $62,703.90 | 0 | $3,045.78 | $3,045.78 |
$-109.99 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 11:50am ET | $62,697.20 | 0 | $3,045.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 11:15am ET | $60,805.70 | 0 | $2,953.89 | $2,953.89 |
$-106.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 11:40am ET | $60,583.00 | 0 | $2,953.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET | $58,246.60 | 0 | $2,839.97 | $2,839.97 |
$-128.40 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 10:05am ET | $58,842.90 | 0 | $2,839.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:25am ET | $61,820.20 | 0 | $2,983.67 | $2,983.67 |
+$129.14 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $61,499.90 | 0 | $2,983.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 11:35am ET | $64,800.30 | 0 | $3,143.79 | $3,143.79 |
+$144.80 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $64,554.40 | 0 | $3,143.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $62,520.30 | 0 | $3,044.73 | $3,044.73 |
$-114.53 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $62,513.00 | 0 | $3,044.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 2:15pm ET | $65,691.50 | 0 | $3,199.54 | $3,199.54 |
+$139.20 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $65,191.70 | 0 | $3,199.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:10pm ET | $63,155.10 | 0 | $3,099.59 | $3,099.59 |
$-115.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 9:15pm ET | $63,145.50 | 0 | $3,099.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 11:10am ET | $66,475.30 | 0 | $3,263.04 | $3,263.04 |
+$147.54 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 1:20pm ET | $68,001.00 | 0 | $3,263.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 4:40am ET | $71,410.20 | 0 | $3,426.63 | $3,426.63 |
+$146.87 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 7:25am ET | $71,874.00 | 0 | $3,426.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:50pm ET | $75,530.50 | 0 | $3,600.96 | $3,600.96 |
+$156.76 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.4h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:55pm ET | $74,375.40 | 0 | $3,600.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 4:55am ET | $78,634.10 | 0 | $3,807.15 | $3,807.15 |
+$187.67 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 6:05am ET | $77,620.90 | 0 | $3,807.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 3:25pm ET | $81,538.10 | 0 | $3,999.28 | $3,999.28 |
+$172.61 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.4d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 6:35pm ET | $81,045.40 | 0 | $3,999.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 1:45am ET | $78,602.60 | 0 | $3,878.74 | $3,878.74 |
$-140.24 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:25am ET | $78,419.00 | 0 | $3,878.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $75,818.50 | 0 | $3,750.11 | $3,750.11 |
$-147.70 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:50am ET | $75,677.80 | 0 | $3,750.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $79,921.50 | 0 | $3,960.40 | $3,960.40 |
+$191.01 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 1:40pm ET | $80,654.70 | 0 | $3,960.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 5:35am ET | $84,732.40 | 0 | $4,160.63 | $4,160.63 |
+$179.93 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,160.63
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,839.37
Total Return:
-58.39%