COIN Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 52 trades in period
-22.91%
Last 6 Months Return
$7,090.84
Current Value
35%
Win Rate
$9,197.75
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
5.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 5.1
30-Day Momentum
36
+10.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 43.9
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+30 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$9,197.75
Current Value
$7,090.84
Period P&L
$-2,106.86
Max Drawdown
-53.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
52
Winners / Losers
18 /
34
Best Trade
+8.42%
Worst Trade
-6.31%
Avg Trade Return
-0.41%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$709,640.33
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,106.86
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,106.86
Gross Return
-22.91%
Net Return (after fees)
-22.91%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 52 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,197.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $184.31 | 49 | $9,031.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.64 | 49 | $8,655.36 | $8,821.87 |
$-375.83 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.16 | 53 | $8,806.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $160.47 | 53 | $8,504.89 | $8,520.28 |
$-301.59 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $160.23 | 53 | $8,492.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:20am ET | $168.35 | 53 | $8,922.81 | $8,950.91 |
+$430.63 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.7h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $174.30 | 51 | $8,889.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.01 | 51 | $8,466.76 | $8,528.37 |
$-422.54 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $174.71 | 48 | $8,386.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $169.28 | 48 | $8,125.49 | $8,267.54 |
$-260.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $180.04 | 45 | $8,102.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $174.50 | 45 | $7,852.50 | $8,018.02 |
$-249.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 2:55pm ET | $168.88 | 47 | $7,937.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $163.36 | 47 | $7,677.92 | $7,758.35 |
$-259.67 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $171.35 | 45 | $7,710.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $180.26 | 45 | $8,111.70 | $8,159.30 |
+$400.95 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $189.72 | 43 | $8,157.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:20pm ET | $199.77 | 43 | $8,590.11 | $8,591.45 |
+$432.15 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:15pm ET | $211.07 | 40 | $8,443.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $200.56 | 40 | $8,022.44 | $8,170.89 |
$-420.56 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $206.15 | 39 | $8,040.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:55am ET | $199.67 | 39 | $7,787.13 | $7,917.97 |
$-252.92 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:00pm ET | $204.94 | 38 | $7,787.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 10:15am ET | $198.24 | 38 | $7,532.93 | $7,663.18 |
$-254.79 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $199.07 | 38 | $7,564.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $190.43 | 38 | $7,236.34 | $7,334.86 |
$-328.32 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $187.15 | 39 | $7,298.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $179.84 | 39 | $7,013.76 | $7,049.93 |
$-284.93 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:35pm ET | $186.48 | 37 | $6,899.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.40 | 37 | $7,377.98 | $7,528.16 |
+$478.23 (+6.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $196.03 | 38 | $7,449.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $185.40 | 38 | $7,045.01 | $7,124.11 |
$-404.05 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $211.75 | 33 | $6,987.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $204.50 | 33 | $6,748.50 | $6,884.86 |
$-239.25 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 12:15pm ET | $198.97 | 34 | $6,764.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $209.85 | 34 | $7,135.07 | $7,254.95 |
+$370.09 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 11:25am ET | $193.20 | 37 | $7,148.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:35am ET | $187.37 | 37 | $6,932.65 | $7,039.20 |
$-215.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 3:25pm ET | $192.82 | 36 | $6,941.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 2:45pm ET | $186.35 | 36 | $6,708.60 | $6,806.28 |
$-232.92 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $181.05 | 37 | $6,698.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $175.40 | 37 | $6,489.62 | $6,597.05 |
$-209.23 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 12:50pm ET | $178.57 | 36 | $6,428.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:15am ET | $188.29 | 36 | $6,778.44 | $6,946.97 |
+$349.92 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 12:40pm ET | $181.34 | 38 | $6,890.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $175.68 | 38 | $6,675.65 | $6,731.70 |
$-215.27 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 10:00am ET | $168.30 | 39 | $6,563.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $163.15 | 39 | $6,362.85 | $6,530.85 |
$-200.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $158.62 | 41 | $6,503.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $153.18 | 41 | $6,280.18 | $6,307.61 |
$-223.24 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET | $162.16 | 38 | $6,162.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $156.90 | 38 | $5,962.20 | $6,107.73 |
$-199.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $156.95 | 38 | $5,964.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $164.85 | 38 | $6,264.30 | $6,407.93 |
+$300.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $171.78 | 37 | $6,355.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $165.81 | 37 | $6,134.97 | $6,187.04 |
$-220.89 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $167.21 | 37 | $6,186.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $156.66 | 37 | $5,796.49 | $5,796.95 |
$-390.09 (-6.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $154.18 | 37 | $5,704.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $149.29 | 37 | $5,523.73 | $5,616.02 |
$-180.93 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 1:20pm ET | $144.41 | 38 | $5,487.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $139.18 | 38 | $5,288.84 | $5,417.28 |
$-198.74 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $145.59 | 37 | $5,386.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:00am ET | $153.97 | 37 | $5,696.89 | $5,727.34 |
+$310.06 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 11:20am ET | $166.08 | 34 | $5,646.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.23 | 34 | $5,413.65 | $5,494.27 |
$-233.07 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $156.70 | 35 | $5,484.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.41 | 35 | $5,824.52 | $5,834.29 |
+$340.02 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $156.46 | 37 | $5,789.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $165.86 | 37 | $6,136.71 | $6,181.98 |
+$347.69 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $161.90 | 38 | $6,152.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.41 | 38 | $5,829.77 | $5,859.55 |
$-322.43 (-5.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 2:55pm ET | $160.40 | 36 | $5,774.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $173.90 | 36 | $6,260.40 | $6,345.55 |
+$486.00 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $174.14 | 36 | $6,269.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 10:50am ET | $168.79 | 36 | $6,076.44 | $6,152.95 |
$-192.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:55am ET | $160.54 | 38 | $6,100.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $155.31 | 38 | $5,901.78 | $5,954.21 |
$-198.74 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $161.25 | 36 | $5,805.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.28 | 36 | $5,518.08 | $5,667.29 |
$-286.92 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.02 | 39 | $5,616.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $151.37 | 39 | $5,903.43 | $5,954.04 |
+$286.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.45 | 40 | $5,937.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:40am ET | $156.45 | 40 | $6,258.00 | $6,274.18 |
+$320.14 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 2:05pm ET | $171.88 | 36 | $6,187.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.00 | 36 | $6,552.00 | $6,638.50 |
+$364.32 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $184.94 | 35 | $6,472.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 3:45pm ET | $179.31 | 35 | $6,275.85 | $6,441.45 |
$-197.05 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $182.01 | 35 | $6,370.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $191.20 | 35 | $6,692.00 | $6,763.10 |
+$321.65 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 11:45am ET | $181.57 | 37 | $6,718.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 2:40pm ET | $176.04 | 37 | $6,513.66 | $6,558.67 |
$-204.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 3:30pm ET | $175.58 | 37 | $6,496.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $184.94 | 37 | $6,842.69 | $6,904.90 |
+$346.23 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.1h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $184.38 | 37 | $6,822.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $178.85 | 37 | $6,617.27 | $6,700.10 |
$-204.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.81 | 39 | $6,661.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $181.11 | 39 | $7,063.29 | $7,101.88 |
+$401.78 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 2:35pm ET | $190.08 | 37 | $7,032.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $183.85 | 37 | $6,802.45 | $6,871.37 |
$-230.51 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $170.26 | 40 | $6,810.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 12:10pm ET | $164.70 | 40 | $6,587.80 | $6,648.84 |
$-222.53 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $192.73 | 34 | $6,552.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.73 | 34 | $6,994.82 | $7,090.84 |
+$442.00 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,090.84
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,909.16
Total Return:
-29.09%