Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

13
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.1/35
Total Return
7.7/25
Win Rate
0.1/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 14.4/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 13.4

30-Day Momentum

1
-4.8%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,671.07
Current Value
$10,754.61
Period P&L
$83.52
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
7 / 11
Best Trade
+6.09%
Worst Trade
-3.64%
Avg Trade Return
+0.13%
Avg Hold Time
8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$391,638.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$83.52
Net P&L (after fees)
$83.52
Gross Return
+0.78%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.78%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,671.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $95.11 112 $10,652.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:25pm ET $92.26 112 $10,332.57 $10,351.34 $-319.75
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET $94.14 109 $10,261.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $98.87 109 $10,776.83 $10,866.91 +$515.57
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:05am ET $99.24 109 $10,817.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:40pm ET $104.23 109 $11,361.08 $11,410.83 +$543.92
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:20pm ET $106.68 106 $11,308.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:10pm ET $103.48 106 $10,968.88 $11,071.10 $-339.73
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:10pm ET $102.43 108 $11,062.44 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:40am ET $108.67 108 $11,736.36 $11,745.02 +$673.92
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held
6 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:45pm ET $109.70 107 $11,737.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 10:50am ET $106.39 107 $11,384.26 $11,391.38 $-353.64
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
7 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 9:35am ET $104.76 108 $11,314.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $101.14 108 $10,922.58 $10,999.34 $-392.04
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET $101.77 108 $10,991.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 9:40am ET $98.60 108 $10,648.80 $10,656.98 $-342.36
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 3:35pm ET $98.99 107 $10,591.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 1:40pm ET $104.13 107 $11,141.91 $11,206.96 +$549.98
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 1:40pm ET $101.75 110 $11,192.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 2:05pm ET $98.68 110 $10,855.35 $10,869.81 $-337.15
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 26, 2026 2:55pm ET $98.58 110 $10,843.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $95.51 110 $10,506.10 $10,532.11 $-337.70
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 12:25pm ET $95.84 109 $10,446.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 10:35am ET $92.86 109 $10,121.74 $10,207.29 $-324.82
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 12:35pm ET $95.61 106 $10,134.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET $100.78 106 $10,682.15 $10,754.78 +$547.49
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
11.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 9:30am ET $104.22 103 $10,735.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $109.55 103 $11,283.48 $11,303.08 +$548.30
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 3:10pm ET $111.13 101 $11,224.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 11:40am ET $107.63 101 $10,870.63 $10,949.58 $-353.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $107.40 101 $10,847.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:35am ET $104.14 101 $10,518.14 $10,620.32 $-329.26
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET $103.25 102 $10,532.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET $108.53 102 $11,070.06 $11,158.37 +$538.05
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:40am ET $107.61 103 $11,083.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $103.69 103 $10,680.07 $10,754.61 $-403.76
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,754.61
Net Profit/Loss: +$754.61
Total Return: +7.55%
Back to Marcus Reversal