Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:12:00

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
22.2 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-40.1%
EMA20 Dist
-35.3%
ATR%
13.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.7/10
Raw Quality 2.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

32
+8.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 38.8 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
53,043
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
185 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$280.32
Current Value
$360.20
Period P&L
$-56.70
Max Drawdown
-98.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
67
Winners / Losers
28 / 39
Best Trade
+6.10%
Worst Trade
-4.51%
Avg Trade Return
+0.32%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$39,678.85
Estimated Fees
$99.20
Gross P&L
$-56.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$-155.89
Gross Return
-20.23%
Net Return (after fees)
-55.61%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ETHUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 185 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 67 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $280.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 22, 2026 4:25am ET $2,086.41 0 $308.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 7:30am ET $2,192.68 0 $324.71 $324.71 +$14.15
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 8:35am ET $2,173.27 0 $324.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 5:35am ET $2,077.86 0 $310.45 $310.45 $-15.84
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 5:40am ET $2,079.99 0 $310.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 6:40am ET $2,009.22 0 $299.89 $299.89 $-12.09
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 6:45am ET $2,009.63 0 $299.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 29, 2026 6:50pm ET $1,938.90 0 $289.34 $289.34 $-12.03
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 29, 2026 6:55pm ET $1,958.08 0 $289.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 3:55am ET $2,057.91 0 $304.09 $304.09 +$13.27
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9h held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 5:45am ET $2,054.12 0 $304.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 1:05pm ET $2,164.55 0 $320.44 $320.44 +$14.79
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $2,129.61 0 $320.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:45pm ET $2,065.65 0 $310.82 $310.82 $-11.20
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.6h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:05pm ET $2,072.67 0 $310.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 6:35pm ET $2,177.48 0 $326.54 $326.54 +$14.12
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 8:35pm ET $2,233.81 0 $326.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 9:55am ET $2,162.44 0 $316.11 $316.11 $-12.04
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:00am ET $2,165.17 0 $316.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2026 2:35pm ET $2,276.04 0 $332.30 $332.30 +$14.57
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 11, 2026 4:35pm ET $2,291.25 0 $332.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 11, 2026 9:50pm ET $2,211.84 0 $320.78 $320.78 $-13.15
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 11, 2026 9:55pm ET $2,224.02 0 $320.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 6:35pm ET $2,341.86 0 $337.78 $337.78 +$15.35
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 8:35pm ET $2,365.11 0 $337.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET $2,293.74 0 $327.59 $327.59 $-11.86
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 10:25am ET $2,290.37 0 $327.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:15am ET $2,408.24 0 $344.45 $344.45 +$15.18
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $2,430.10 0 $344.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 18, 2026 7:10am ET $2,357.14 0 $334.11 $334.11 $-12.04
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 18, 2026 7:40am ET $2,345.54 0 $334.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 19, 2026 6:00pm ET $2,275.07 0 $324.07 $324.07 $-11.68
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 19, 2026 6:05pm ET $2,258.87 0 $324.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 11:05pm ET $2,374.48 0 $340.66 $340.66 +$14.92
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 2:55am ET $2,392.75 0 $340.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 5:50am ET $2,317.00 0 $329.88 $329.88 $-12.46
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 5:55am ET $2,317.05 0 $329.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET $2,232.05 0 $317.78 $317.78 $-13.72
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 2:30pm ET $2,230.30 0 $317.78 — — —
🔴 SELL May 3, 2026 6:15pm ET $2,347.37 0 $334.46 $334.46 +$15.05
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.2d held
21 🟢 BUY May 3, 2026 7:50pm ET $2,323.65 0 $334.46 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 11:30am ET $2,251.52 0 $324.08 $324.08 $-12.03
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.7d held
22 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:35am ET $2,254.23 0 $324.08 — — —
🔴 SELL May 16, 2026 5:15am ET $2,184.40 0 $314.04 $314.04 $-11.63
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
23 🟢 BUY May 16, 2026 5:20am ET $2,168.67 0 $314.04 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 11:05am ET $2,098.74 0 $303.91 $303.91 $-11.67
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held
24 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 11:10am ET $2,099.19 0 $303.91 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2026 3:50am ET $2,032.73 0 $294.29 $294.29 $-11.12
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
25 🟢 BUY May 23, 2026 3:55am ET $2,019.54 0 $294.29 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2026 4:45pm ET $2,127.78 0 $310.06 $310.06 +$14.26
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.8h held
26 🟢 BUY May 23, 2026 6:05pm ET $2,116.77 0 $310.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $2,050.12 0 $300.30 $300.30 $-11.29
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
27 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:50am ET $2,053.36 0 $300.30 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 11:20pm ET $1,984.25 0 $290.19 $290.19 $-11.58
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.5h held
28 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:25pm ET $1,992.94 0 $290.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 10:45am ET $1,932.07 0 $281.33 $281.33 $-10.29
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.5d held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:50am ET $1,941.46 0 $281.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 6:20pm ET $1,882.47 0 $272.78 $272.78 $-9.93
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.5h held
30 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 7:05pm ET $1,860.65 0 $272.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,801.11 0 $264.05 $264.05 $-10.07
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
31 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 4:00pm ET $1,800.35 0 $264.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET $1,719.08 0 $252.13 $252.13 $-13.21
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1h held
32 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:10pm ET $1,736.07 0 $252.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:00am ET $1,682.90 0 $244.41 $244.41 $-8.96
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
33 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 2:05am ET $1,674.48 0 $244.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 10:00am ET $1,613.92 0 $235.57 $235.57 $-10.04
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9h held
34 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 10:05am ET $1,606.18 0 $235.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,550.71 0 $227.43 $227.43 $-9.29
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held
35 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 3:00pm ET $1,553.00 0 $227.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 7, 2026 4:55am ET $1,633.94 0 $239.28 $239.28 +$10.69
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.6d held
36 🟢 BUY Jun 7, 2026 6:20am ET $1,629.82 0 $239.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 5:10pm ET $1,713.29 0 $251.53 $251.53 +$11.03
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.5d held
37 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 6:15pm ET $1,690.70 0 $251.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:30am ET $1,638.20 0 $243.72 $243.72 $-9.05
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.3h held
38 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:35am ET $1,642.42 0 $243.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 14, 2026 5:50pm ET $1,727.32 0 $256.32 $256.32 +$11.35
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.3d held
39 🟢 BUY Jun 14, 2026 9:05pm ET $1,711.92 0 $256.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:20am ET $1,809.11 0 $270.87 $270.87 +$13.23
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.3h held
40 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 1:10pm ET $1,825.24 0 $270.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:35pm ET $1,770.02 0 $262.68 $262.68 $-9.53
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held
41 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:40pm ET $1,773.77 0 $262.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 11:30am ET $1,717.94 0 $254.41 $254.41 $-9.56
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5d held
42 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 11:40am ET $1,709.51 0 $254.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 4:20am ET $1,650.64 0 $245.65 $245.65 $-10.01
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
43 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2026 4:25am ET $1,642.28 0 $245.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 12:55pm ET $1,588.38 0 $237.59 $237.59 $-9.27
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
44 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $1,587.77 0 $237.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 25, 2026 10:00am ET $1,537.15 0 $230.02 $230.02 $-8.74
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
45 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 10:05am ET $1,555.50 0 $230.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 6:25pm ET $1,635.18 0 $241.80 $241.80 +$10.60
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.3d held
46 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 7:00pm ET $1,620.17 0 $241.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 9:35am ET $1,704.91 0 $254.45 $254.45 +$11.41
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.6h held
47 🟢 BUY Jul 2, 2026 11:20am ET $1,693.05 0 $254.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 4, 2026 11:10am ET $1,786.84 0 $268.55 $268.55 +$12.79
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
48 🟢 BUY Jul 4, 2026 3:20pm ET $1,790.30 0 $268.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:05am ET $1,730.23 0 $259.54 $259.54 $-10.33
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
49 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 6:15pm ET $1,812.51 0 $259.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 1:15am ET $1,757.26 0 $251.63 $251.63 $-9.19
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7h held
50 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 1:20am ET $1,758.00 0 $251.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:00am ET $1,860.19 0 $266.26 $266.26 +$13.33
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.3d held
51 🟢 BUY Jul 14, 2026 1:15pm ET $1,866.63 0 $266.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $1,808.53 0 $257.97 $257.97 $-9.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
52 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:40am ET $1,803.33 0 $257.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 11:50am ET $1,895.47 0 $271.15 $271.15 +$11.86
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held
53 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 3:10pm ET $1,894.56 0 $271.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2026 2:45pm ET $1,830.97 0 $262.05 $262.05 $-10.43
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held
54 🟢 BUY Aug 1, 2026 2:50pm ET $1,821.06 0 $262.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 1:55pm ET $1,913.34 0 $275.33 $275.33 +$11.94
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
55 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 5:35pm ET $1,907.18 0 $275.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 11:10am ET $2,014.88 0 $290.88 $290.88 +$14.13
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.7d held
56 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 1:10pm ET $2,081.32 0 $290.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 19, 2026 4:55pm ET $2,202.99 0 $307.88 $307.88 +$15.51
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held
57 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 6:55pm ET $2,243.04 0 $307.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 9:20pm ET $2,356.55 0 $323.46 $323.46 +$14.00
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
58 🟢 BUY Aug 20, 2026 10:55pm ET $2,344.41 0 $323.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 5:25pm ET $2,482.12 0 $342.46 $342.46 +$17.34
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.5h held
59 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 8:30pm ET $2,506.48 0 $342.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 22, 2026 2:15am ET $2,428.19 0 $331.76 $331.76 $-12.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
60 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2026 4:35am ET $2,417.83 0 $331.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 5:25am ET $2,540.16 0 $348.55 $348.55 +$15.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
61 🟢 BUY Aug 27, 2026 6:30am ET $2,510.19 0 $348.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 12:25pm ET $2,418.56 0 $335.83 $335.83 $-14.43
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
62 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $2,429.96 0 $335.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:50am ET $2,578.15 0 $356.31 $356.31 +$18.75
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.9d held
63 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 11:10am ET $2,606.50 0 $356.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 4:50pm ET $2,528.29 0 $345.62 $345.62 $-12.45
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7h held
64 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 6:10pm ET $2,511.32 0 $345.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 10:35am ET $2,433.00 0 $334.84 $334.84 $-12.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
65 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 10:40am ET $2,417.31 0 $334.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET $2,554.74 0 $353.88 $353.88 +$17.31
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
66 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 7:25pm ET $2,615.10 0 $353.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 10:55am ET $2,747.31 0 $371.77 $371.77 +$16.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.6d held
67 🟢 BUY Sep 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $2,736.43 0 $371.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:30am ET $2,651.29 0 $360.20 $360.20 $-13.40
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $360.20
Net Profit/Loss: $-9,639.80
Total Return: -96.40%
Back to Marcus Reversal