Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 19:16:32

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.7 neutral
20d Trend
-7.0%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
59%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
18.7/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
3.2/15
Profit Factor
2.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 46.1/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 44.4

30-Day Momentum

0
-8.7%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-44 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$19,535.67
Current Value
$18,386.17
Period P&L
$-1,149.49
Max Drawdown
-15.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.06

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
7 / 13
Best Trade
+6.10%
Worst Trade
-4.41%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$806,460.07
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,149.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,149.49
Gross Return
-5.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 GS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $19,535.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $823.46 23 $18,939.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:55am ET $867.26 23 $19,946.98 $20,543.06 +$1,007.40
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $856.79 23 $19,706.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $905.24 23 $20,820.52 $21,657.41 +$1,114.35
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:35am ET $897.85 24 $21,548.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:55am ET $868.87 24 $20,852.88 $20,961.89 $-695.52
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:40am ET $907.77 23 $20,878.71 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2026 10:30am ET $956.00 23 $21,988.00 $22,071.18 +$1,109.29
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
28d held
5 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 10:45am ET $963.71 22 $21,201.62 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $926.96 22 $20,393.12 $21,262.68 $-808.50
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
6 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 11:00am ET $976.56 21 $20,507.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 11:25am ET $1,025.67 21 $21,539.07 $22,293.99 +$1,031.31
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 2:00pm ET $1,067.99 20 $21,359.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:20am ET $1,033.40 20 $20,668.00 $21,602.19 $-691.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $1,082.34 19 $20,564.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $1,049.40 19 $19,938.60 $20,976.33 $-625.86
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:20pm ET $1,050.47 19 $19,958.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $1,016.65 19 $19,316.43 $20,333.83 $-642.50
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:35am ET $1,008.64 20 $20,172.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 10:10am ET $1,060.51 20 $21,210.20 $21,371.33 +$1,037.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 10:40am ET $1,079.48 19 $20,510.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET $1,031.87 19 $19,605.53 $20,466.74 $-904.59
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 3:35pm ET $1,022.61 20 $20,452.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,084.97 20 $21,699.40 $21,713.84 +$1,247.10
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.7d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 11:25am ET $1,132.46 19 $21,516.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:55am ET $1,098.40 19 $20,869.60 $21,066.70 $-647.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 1:20pm ET $1,078.81 19 $20,497.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 11:40am ET $1,043.20 19 $19,820.80 $20,390.11 $-676.59
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 2:00pm ET $1,038.18 19 $19,725.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:45am ET $1,006.63 19 $19,125.97 $19,790.66 $-599.45
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 11:40am ET $1,006.71 19 $19,127.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 10:40am ET $1,058.52 19 $20,111.79 $20,775.05 +$984.39
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,072.42 19 $20,375.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2026 2:15pm ET $1,039.33 19 $19,747.36 $20,146.43 $-628.62
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 10, 2026 12:25pm ET $1,033.45 19 $19,635.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 1, 2026 2:45pm ET $1,002.06 19 $19,039.14 $19,550.02 $-596.41
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 1:05pm ET $1,034.90 18 $18,628.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 9:50am ET $1,002.45 18 $18,044.15 $18,966.05 $-583.97
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET $973.56 19 $18,497.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET $943.04 19 $17,917.76 $18,386.17 $-579.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $18,386.17
Net Profit/Loss: +$8,386.17
Total Return: +83.86%
Back to Marcus Reversal