Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 18:49:34

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
4.96%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.26%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.7/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.3/10
Raw Quality 30.1/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 29.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$17,850.31
Current Value
$13,457.24
Period P&L
$-4,393.09
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
11 / 18
Best Trade
+6.54%
Worst Trade
-22.15%
Avg Trade Return
-0.82%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$906,406.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,393.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,393.09
Gross Return
-24.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $17,850.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 11:00am ET $246.75 73 $18,012.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET $238.76 73 $17,429.48 $17,464.52 $-583.45
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $238.40 73 $17,403.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $231.16 73 $16,874.68 $16,935.64 $-528.88
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:30am ET $239.79 70 $16,784.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $255.46 70 $17,882.20 $18,032.89 +$1,097.25
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:00am ET $253.63 71 $18,007.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $230.82 71 $16,388.22 $16,413.38 $-1,619.51
(-9.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $227.53 72 $16,382.16 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:50am ET $220.52 72 $15,877.44 $15,908.66 $-504.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18d held
6 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 11:05am ET $212.60 74 $15,732.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $225.50 74 $16,687.00 $16,863.26 +$954.60
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
7 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:30am ET $221.26 76 $16,815.95 — — —
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:35am ET $234.90 76 $17,852.02 $17,899.33 +$1,036.07
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
8 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 11:40am ET $256.96 69 $17,730.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $247.18 69 $17,055.59 $17,224.88 $-674.45
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
9 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 11:25am ET $265.12 64 $16,967.68 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:50am ET $278.78 64 $17,841.92 $18,099.12 +$874.24
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 2:20pm ET $317.13 57 $18,076.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $307.36 57 $17,519.24 $17,542.23 $-556.89
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $302.88 57 $17,264.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $291.62 57 $16,622.34 $16,900.41 $-641.82
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 11:30am ET $283.10 59 $16,702.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 12:10pm ET $273.80 59 $16,154.21 $16,351.72 $-548.69
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 1:40pm ET $274.18 59 $16,176.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:10am ET $265.52 59 $15,665.68 $15,840.78 $-510.94
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:55am ET $270.61 58 $15,695.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $262.40 58 $15,219.49 $15,364.89 $-475.89
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 11:05am ET $245.65 62 $15,230.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $261.50 62 $16,213.00 $16,347.59 +$982.70
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:40am ET $257.99 63 $16,253.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 11:30am ET $271.28 63 $17,090.64 $17,184.86 +$837.27
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET $272.92 62 $16,920.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 9:55am ET $286.85 62 $17,784.70 $18,048.83 +$863.97
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 2:15pm ET $298.12 60 $17,887.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET $285.37 60 $17,122.05 $17,283.68 $-765.15
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET $290.68 59 $17,150.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $226.30 59 $13,351.70 $13,485.26 $-3,798.42
(-22.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 10:40am ET $215.59 62 $13,366.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 16, 2026 9:30am ET $206.16 62 $12,782.22 $12,900.90 $-584.36
(-4.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $215.56 59 $12,718.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 22, 2026 9:30am ET $209.03 59 $12,332.77 $12,515.62 $-385.28
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET $201.14 62 $12,470.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 10:10am ET $211.96 62 $13,141.21 $13,186.15 +$670.53
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 27, 2026 12:20pm ET $215.59 61 $13,150.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 12:35pm ET $226.45 61 $13,813.45 $13,848.61 +$662.46
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 3:45pm ET $227.40 60 $13,644.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 11:05am ET $220.56 60 $13,233.60 $13,438.21 $-410.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $226.46 59 $13,361.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 12:55pm ET $237.80 59 $14,030.20 $14,107.27 +$669.06
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
26 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2026 2:30pm ET $235.41 59 $13,889.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $228.25 59 $13,466.75 $13,684.83 $-422.44
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 9:30am ET $230.67 59 $13,609.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $242.35 59 $14,298.36 $14,373.66 +$688.83
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.2d held
28 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET $246.20 58 $14,279.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $238.03 58 $13,805.98 $13,900.04 $-473.62
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
29 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET $234.15 59 $13,814.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 24, 2026 9:55am ET $226.64 59 $13,371.76 $13,457.24 $-442.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,457.24
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,457.24
Total Return: +34.57%
Back to Marcus Reversal