Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:20:45

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 4.4/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 4.3

30-Day Momentum

18
+5.0%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 27.9 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+14 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,349.95
Current Value
$9,477.34
Period P&L
$-1,872.59
Max Drawdown
-35.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
22
Winners / Losers
7 / 15
Best Trade
+6.20%
Worst Trade
-6.62%
Avg Trade Return
-0.70%
Avg Hold Time
6.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$409,449.52
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,872.59
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,872.59
Gross Return
-16.50%
Net Return (after fees)
-16.50%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 22 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,349.95 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 3:40pm ET $470.82 23 $10,828.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $456.60 23 $10,501.80 $10,867.39 $-327.06
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET $450.62 24 $10,814.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $473.35 24 $11,360.40 $11,412.91 +$545.52
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 12:35pm ET $466.06 24 $11,185.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $452.03 24 $10,848.72 $11,076.19 $-336.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:40am ET $480.18 23 $11,044.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET $464.54 23 $10,684.31 $10,716.36 $-359.83
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET $457.68 23 $10,526.64 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:40am ET $442.69 23 $10,181.87 $10,371.59 $-344.77
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held
6 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 2:05pm ET $431.40 24 $10,353.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $416.80 24 $10,003.08 $10,021.07 $-350.52
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held
7 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 2:50pm ET $421.17 23 $9,686.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $406.57 23 $9,351.00 $9,685.15 $-335.92
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 11:10am ET $416.29 23 $9,574.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:50am ET $403.65 23 $9,283.95 $9,394.43 $-290.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 12:45pm ET $414.63 22 $9,121.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $401.83 22 $8,840.26 $9,112.94 $-281.49
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET $400.80 22 $8,817.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 11:50am ET $421.04 22 $9,262.77 $9,558.22 +$445.28
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
10.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 3:30pm ET $435.98 21 $9,155.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $421.90 21 $8,859.90 $9,262.54 $-295.68
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 9:35am ET $410.36 22 $9,027.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2026 9:30am ET $396.31 22 $8,718.82 $8,953.51 $-309.03
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2026 1:00pm ET $390.91 22 $8,600.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $365.02 22 $8,030.55 $8,384.04 $-569.47
(-6.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:45am ET $344.81 24 $8,275.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:40am ET $333.76 24 $8,010.12 $8,118.72 $-265.32
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 12:35pm ET $339.89 23 $7,817.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $356.91 23 $8,208.93 $8,510.18 +$391.46
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET $355.70 23 $8,181.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:50am ET $374.46 23 $8,612.64 $8,941.72 +$431.54
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:10am ET $367.31 24 $8,815.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 10:50am ET $386.11 24 $9,266.52 $9,392.80 +$451.08
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 1:35pm ET $399.72 23 $9,193.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 1:00pm ET $383.58 23 $8,822.34 $9,021.58 $-371.22
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 2:05pm ET $379.48 23 $8,727.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 25, 2026 10:35am ET $367.70 23 $8,457.10 $8,750.70 $-270.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET $367.51 23 $8,452.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 10:25am ET $355.95 23 $8,186.74 $8,484.70 $-266.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 11:00am ET $352.21 24 $8,453.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 9:35am ET $374.04 24 $8,976.96 $9,008.62 +$523.92
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET $372.03 24 $8,928.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 18, 2026 9:40am ET $391.56 24 $9,397.44 $9,477.34 +$468.72
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,477.34
Net Profit/Loss: $-522.66
Total Return: -5.23%
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