Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 01:30:29

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.4 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
+1.5%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
2.3%
Range Pos
39%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 87%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.1/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 36.2/100
× Confidence 0.87 = 31.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (87%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,609.28
Current Value
$13,908.33
Period P&L
$1,299.04
Max Drawdown
-11.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.25

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
6 / 6
Best Trade
+5.71%
Worst Trade
-4.10%
Avg Trade Return
+1.06%
Avg Hold Time
12.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$303,434.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,299.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,299.04
Gross Return
+10.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,609.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 2:45pm ET $496.82 24 $11,923.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:45pm ET $481.73 24 $11,561.52 $12,057.05 $-362.16
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET $491.76 24 $11,802.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 10:55am ET $516.45 24 $12,394.68 $12,649.49 +$592.44
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
15d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:50pm ET $523.16 24 $12,555.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 12:20pm ET $507.02 24 $12,168.36 $12,262.01 $-387.48
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:15pm ET $499.97 24 $11,999.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $528.50 24 $12,684.00 $12,946.73 +$684.72
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $513.96 25 $12,849.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 11:20am ET $498.52 25 $12,463.00 $12,560.73 $-386.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $500.37 25 $12,509.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:45am ET $484.77 25 $12,119.37 $12,170.85 $-389.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
28d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $475.55 25 $11,888.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 12:40pm ET $499.94 25 $12,498.50 $12,780.60 +$609.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 12:40pm ET $498.73 25 $12,468.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $483.75 25 $12,093.75 $12,406.10 $-374.50
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:25pm ET $493.48 25 $12,337.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 1, 2026 10:10am ET $519.67 25 $12,991.75 $13,060.72 +$654.62
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET $531.83 24 $12,763.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $561.60 24 $13,478.40 $13,775.19 +$714.47
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
22d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 2:10pm ET $564.49 24 $13,547.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET $594.51 24 $14,268.24 $14,495.67 +$720.48
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
25.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 11:30am ET $596.97 24 $14,327.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $572.50 24 $13,740.00 $13,908.33 $-587.34
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,908.33
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,908.33
Total Return: +39.08%
Back to Marcus Reversal