MRNA Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 53 trades in period
+30.12%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,181.66
Current Value
43%
Win Rate
$8,593.39
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
13
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.3/35
Total Return
7.1/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.1/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality
12.6/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 12.6
30-Day Momentum
44
+15.6%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.2
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,593.39
Current Value
$11,181.66
Period P&L
$2,588.21
Max Drawdown
-73.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.14
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
53
Winners / Losers
23 /
30
Best Trade
+10.63%
Worst Trade
-6.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
1.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$943,324.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,588.21
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,588.21
Gross Return
+30.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+30.12%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 53 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,593.39 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.64 | 161 | $8,314.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $54.33 | 161 | $8,747.03 | $8,796.50 |
+$432.99 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $51.69 | 170 | $8,787.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $50.11 | 170 | $8,518.70 | $8,527.90 |
$-268.60 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 11:00am ET | $48.98 | 174 | $8,522.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:20pm ET | $51.43 | 174 | $8,948.82 | $8,954.20 |
+$426.30 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET | $50.08 | 178 | $8,914.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.11 | 178 | $8,563.94 | $8,603.88 |
$-350.32 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $48.60 | 177 | $8,602.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.99 | 177 | $9,202.23 | $9,203.91 |
+$600.03 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $50.98 | 180 | $9,176.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $53.76 | 180 | $9,676.80 | $9,704.31 |
+$500.40 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.10 | 182 | $9,664.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $56.15 | 182 | $10,219.76 | $10,259.87 |
+$555.56 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $54.60 | 187 | $10,210.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $52.84 | 187 | $9,881.08 | $9,930.75 |
$-329.12 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $50.02 | 198 | $9,903.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.51 | 198 | $9,604.98 | $9,631.77 |
$-298.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.53 | 207 | $9,631.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $44.92 | 207 | $9,299.47 | $9,299.54 |
$-332.23 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:00pm ET | $47.02 | 197 | $9,263.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $45.09 | 197 | $8,882.73 | $8,918.74 |
$-380.80 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $47.19 | 188 | $8,871.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.69 | 188 | $9,718.66 | $9,765.68 |
+$846.94 (+9.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 1:55pm ET | $55.47 | 176 | $9,761.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $53.60 | 176 | $9,432.72 | $9,436.56 |
$-329.12 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 2:40pm ET | $52.23 | 180 | $9,401.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $50.57 | 180 | $9,102.60 | $9,137.74 |
$-298.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $49.22 | 185 | $9,106.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:45pm ET | $47.69 | 185 | $8,822.65 | $8,853.77 |
$-283.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.61 | 185 | $8,807.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $46.06 | 185 | $8,521.10 | $8,567.02 |
$-286.75 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $47.98 | 178 | $8,540.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.27 | 178 | $8,235.70 | $8,262.28 |
$-304.74 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $44.24 | 186 | $8,229.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $46.54 | 186 | $8,656.44 | $8,689.15 |
+$426.87 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $50.90 | 170 | $8,652.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $49.33 | 170 | $8,385.25 | $8,422.25 |
$-266.90 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:10pm ET | $47.79 | 176 | $8,411.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $46.10 | 176 | $8,114.48 | $8,125.69 |
$-296.56 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $46.47 | 174 | $8,084.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $49.08 | 174 | $8,540.79 | $8,581.57 |
+$455.88 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $50.44 | 170 | $8,575.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $53.23 | 170 | $9,049.10 | $9,055.02 |
+$473.45 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 10:40am ET | $62.26 | 145 | $9,027.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $59.97 | 145 | $8,695.65 | $8,722.97 |
$-332.05 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $62.02 | 140 | $8,682.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:40pm ET | $59.95 | 140 | $8,393.00 | $8,433.17 |
$-289.80 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 12:20pm ET | $66.75 | 126 | $8,410.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.11 | 126 | $9,085.86 | $9,108.53 |
+$675.36 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 2:15pm ET | $72.91 | 124 | $9,040.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $76.58 | 124 | $9,496.54 | $9,564.23 |
+$455.70 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $82.73 | 115 | $9,513.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $79.27 | 115 | $9,116.05 | $9,166.87 |
$-397.36 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $75.41 | 121 | $9,124.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $70.72 | 121 | $8,557.72 | $8,599.98 |
$-566.89 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $66.00 | 130 | $8,580.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $69.37 | 130 | $9,018.11 | $9,038.09 |
+$438.11 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $66.43 | 136 | $9,034.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 11:45am ET | $64.37 | 136 | $8,754.32 | $8,757.93 |
$-280.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:15pm ET | $61.99 | 141 | $8,741.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 3:15pm ET | $60.13 | 141 | $8,478.33 | $8,494.97 |
$-262.96 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 12:25pm ET | $58.69 | 144 | $8,451.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:25am ET | $56.79 | 144 | $8,177.76 | $8,221.37 |
$-273.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 2:35pm ET | $54.14 | 151 | $8,174.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $56.88 | 151 | $8,589.63 | $8,636.32 |
+$414.95 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:00am ET | $53.69 | 160 | $8,589.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $56.53 | 160 | $9,044.43 | $9,091.15 |
+$454.83 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 11:35am ET | $56.42 | 161 | $9,084.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.92 | 161 | $8,520.12 | $8,526.84 |
$-564.31 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 10:45am ET | $56.50 | 150 | $8,475.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 11:45am ET | $54.80 | 150 | $8,220.00 | $8,271.84 |
$-255.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 3:25pm ET | $58.22 | 142 | $8,267.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:40am ET | $61.40 | 142 | $8,718.80 | $8,723.40 |
+$451.56 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:55am ET | $64.01 | 136 | $8,705.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $61.71 | 136 | $8,392.56 | $8,410.60 |
$-312.80 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 11:35am ET | $64.42 | 130 | $8,374.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 11:00am ET | $62.31 | 130 | $8,100.30 | $8,136.30 |
$-274.30 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 11:35am ET | $141.18 | 57 | $8,046.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 12:50pm ET | $149.04 | 57 | $8,495.00 | $8,584.32 |
+$448.02 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 12:50pm ET | $130.57 | 65 | $8,486.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $144.45 | 65 | $9,389.25 | $9,486.84 |
+$902.52 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $136.64 | 69 | $9,428.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $132.21 | 69 | $9,122.83 | $9,181.51 |
$-305.33 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $150.50 | 61 | $9,180.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 2:00pm ET | $145.83 | 61 | $8,895.87 | $8,896.88 |
$-284.63 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $140.56 | 63 | $8,855.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $136.02 | 63 | $8,569.57 | $8,611.17 |
$-285.71 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 1:55pm ET | $140.77 | 61 | $8,587.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 2:40pm ET | $136.53 | 61 | $8,328.33 | $8,352.42 |
$-258.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $151.21 | 55 | $8,316.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 2, 2026 12:05pm ET | $146.64 | 55 | $8,065.20 | $8,100.80 |
$-251.62 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $143.21 | 56 | $8,020.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.62 | 56 | $8,602.72 | $8,683.48 |
+$582.68 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.4h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 10:05am ET | $142.76 | 60 | $8,565.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $137.68 | 60 | $8,260.99 | $8,378.87 |
$-304.61 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $132.08 | 63 | $8,321.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $140.14 | 63 | $8,828.78 | $8,886.61 |
+$507.74 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $143.07 | 62 | $8,870.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $152.56 | 62 | $9,458.72 | $9,475.00 |
+$588.39 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $154.13 | 61 | $9,401.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET | $163.43 | 61 | $9,968.93 | $10,041.99 |
+$566.99 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $170.90 | 58 | $9,912.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $180.83 | 58 | $10,488.14 | $10,617.93 |
+$575.94 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
40m held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $185.07 | 57 | $10,548.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 3:55pm ET | $194.96 | 57 | $11,112.72 | $11,181.66 |
+$563.73 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,181.66
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,181.66
Total Return:
+11.82%