ORCL Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 48 trades in period
-25.02%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,136.16
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$12,184.29
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
15.8 oversold
20d Trend
-34.3%
5d Trend
-19.1%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.9%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
5.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 5.4
30-Day Momentum
29
+8.2%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 37.0
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,184.29
Current Value
$9,136.16
Period P&L
$-3,048.14
Max Drawdown
-51.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
18 /
30
Best Trade
+6.47%
Worst Trade
-12.17%
Avg Trade Return
-0.46%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,013,210.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-3,048.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,048.14
Gross Return
-25.02%
Net Return (after fees)
-25.02%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ORCL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,184.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $151.41 | 79 | $11,961.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $146.34 | 79 | $11,560.61 | $11,617.62 |
$-400.74 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:20am ET | $144.37 | 80 | $11,549.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $139.55 | 80 | $11,164.40 | $11,232.42 |
$-385.20 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $139.13 | 80 | $11,130.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 1:35pm ET | $146.12 | 80 | $11,689.20 | $11,791.62 |
+$559.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $145.45 | 81 | $11,781.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $140.85 | 81 | $11,408.85 | $11,419.02 |
$-372.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $144.47 | 79 | $11,413.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $139.66 | 79 | $11,033.14 | $11,039.03 |
$-379.99 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $135.49 | 81 | $10,974.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $142.29 | 81 | $11,525.49 | $11,589.83 |
+$550.80 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $163.84 | 70 | $11,468.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:00am ET | $172.32 | 70 | $12,062.05 | $12,183.08 |
+$593.25 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $179.60 | 67 | $12,033.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $174.17 | 67 | $11,669.42 | $11,818.96 |
$-364.12 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:15pm ET | $187.21 | 63 | $11,794.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.80 | 63 | $11,327.40 | $11,352.13 |
$-466.83 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $171.53 | 66 | $11,320.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.43 | 66 | $10,720.38 | $10,751.53 |
$-600.60 (-5.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $163.56 | 65 | $10,631.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:25am ET | $171.91 | 65 | $11,174.15 | $11,294.28 |
+$542.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $180.28 | 62 | $11,177.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $189.38 | 62 | $11,741.56 | $11,858.48 |
+$564.20 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 11:45am ET | $197.14 | 60 | $11,828.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $190.85 | 60 | $11,451.30 | $11,481.38 |
$-377.10 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $192.18 | 59 | $11,338.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $186.36 | 59 | $10,995.24 | $11,137.71 |
$-343.67 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $188.65 | 59 | $11,130.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:10am ET | $198.31 | 59 | $11,700.41 | $11,707.47 |
+$569.76 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $192.31 | 60 | $11,538.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $186.22 | 60 | $11,173.20 | $11,342.07 |
$-365.40 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:00am ET | $182.77 | 62 | $11,332.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 1:55pm ET | $192.80 | 62 | $11,953.60 | $11,963.62 |
+$621.55 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 3:30pm ET | $191.62 | 62 | $11,880.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 11:00am ET | $202.80 | 62 | $12,573.60 | $12,656.78 |
+$693.16 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $244.72 | 51 | $12,480.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $236.12 | 51 | $12,042.25 | $12,218.31 |
$-438.47 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $225.75 | 54 | $12,190.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 2:35pm ET | $237.37 | 54 | $12,817.98 | $12,845.79 |
+$627.48 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $211.38 | 60 | $12,682.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:50am ET | $204.73 | 60 | $12,283.50 | $12,446.79 |
$-399.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $203.34 | 61 | $12,403.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $178.60 | 61 | $10,894.60 | $10,937.66 |
$-1,509.13 (-12.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:10pm ET | $180.90 | 60 | $10,854.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $190.17 | 60 | $11,410.20 | $11,493.86 |
+$556.20 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $189.29 | 60 | $11,357.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $183.21 | 60 | $10,992.60 | $11,129.36 |
$-364.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.81 | 61 | $11,090.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 12:05pm ET | $176.29 | 61 | $10,753.39 | $10,792.34 |
$-337.02 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $168.27 | 64 | $10,769.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $162.27 | 64 | $10,385.28 | $10,408.34 |
$-384.00 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 9:50am ET | $153.34 | 67 | $10,273.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $147.33 | 67 | $9,871.11 | $10,006.00 |
$-402.34 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $144.99 | 69 | $10,004.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 11:55am ET | $140.57 | 69 | $9,699.33 | $9,701.16 |
$-304.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $143.70 | 67 | $9,627.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $138.31 | 67 | $9,266.77 | $9,340.03 |
$-361.13 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $138.22 | 67 | $9,260.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $145.87 | 67 | $9,772.96 | $9,852.25 |
+$512.22 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:15am ET | $141.51 | 69 | $9,764.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $136.83 | 69 | $9,441.27 | $9,529.33 |
$-322.92 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 9:55am ET | $129.34 | 73 | $9,441.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 3:10pm ET | $125.22 | 73 | $9,141.06 | $9,228.57 |
$-300.76 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $125.82 | 73 | $9,184.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $121.76 | 73 | $8,888.48 | $8,932.10 |
$-296.47 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 11:00am ET | $126.26 | 70 | $8,838.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $122.07 | 70 | $8,544.90 | $8,638.45 |
$-293.65 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:45am ET | $117.32 | 73 | $8,564.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $123.26 | 73 | $8,997.98 | $9,071.71 |
+$433.26 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET | $127.79 | 70 | $8,945.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $135.51 | 70 | $9,485.63 | $9,612.05 |
+$540.34 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 2:15pm ET | $146.92 | 65 | $9,549.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $140.11 | 65 | $9,107.15 | $9,169.40 |
$-442.65 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $145.06 | 63 | $9,138.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $153.13 | 63 | $9,647.19 | $9,677.81 |
+$508.41 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:20am ET | $155.67 | 62 | $9,651.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 2:15pm ET | $150.62 | 62 | $9,338.44 | $9,364.71 |
$-313.10 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $143.39 | 65 | $9,320.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $138.38 | 65 | $8,994.70 | $9,039.06 |
$-325.65 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $142.18 | 63 | $8,957.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $150.95 | 63 | $9,509.85 | $9,591.57 |
+$552.51 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 10:45am ET | $149.23 | 64 | $9,550.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $143.98 | 64 | $9,214.72 | $9,255.89 |
$-335.68 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $144.00 | 64 | $9,216.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $151.21 | 64 | $9,677.44 | $9,717.33 |
+$461.44 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 2:00pm ET | $157.56 | 61 | $9,611.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.75 | 61 | $10,232.75 | $10,338.92 |
+$621.59 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $162.68 | 63 | $10,249.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.75 | 63 | $9,938.25 | $10,028.02 |
$-310.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $152.79 | 65 | $9,931.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $141.48 | 65 | $9,196.20 | $9,293.19 |
$-734.83 (-7.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $141.14 | 65 | $9,174.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $148.68 | 65 | $9,664.20 | $9,783.29 |
+$490.10 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $146.63 | 66 | $9,677.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $136.82 | 66 | $9,030.12 | $9,136.16 |
$-647.13 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,136.16
Net Profit/Loss:
$-863.84
Total Return:
-8.64%