RBLX Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 42 trades in period
-1.32%
Last 6 Months Return
$12,336.96
Current Value
45%
Win Rate
$12,501.80
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
22
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
12.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.4/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality
21.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 21.6
30-Day Momentum
64
+21.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 86.7
Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+43 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,501.80
Current Value
$12,336.96
Period P&L
$-164.84
Max Drawdown
-46.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
19 /
23
Best Trade
+8.83%
Worst Trade
-22.94%
Avg Trade Return
+0.18%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$950,447.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-164.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$-164.84
Gross Return
-1.32%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.32%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,501.80 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $56.41 | 220 | $12,410.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $54.69 | 220 | $12,031.80 | $12,037.60 |
$-378.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $52.58 | 228 | $11,989.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $55.32 | 228 | $12,612.96 | $12,661.18 |
+$623.58 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $57.80 | 219 | $12,658.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $56.04 | 219 | $12,272.76 | $12,275.74 |
$-385.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $57.53 | 213 | $12,254.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $55.74 | 213 | $11,872.62 | $11,893.41 |
$-382.33 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $52.92 | 224 | $11,852.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.50 | 224 | $12,656.00 | $12,696.45 |
+$803.04 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:00pm ET | $57.01 | 222 | $12,656.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $60.29 | 222 | $13,384.38 | $13,424.61 |
+$728.16 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $60.26 | 222 | $13,378.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $63.42 | 222 | $14,080.35 | $14,126.13 |
+$701.52 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $61.21 | 230 | $14,077.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.80 | 230 | $13,064.00 | $13,112.98 |
$-1,013.15 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $53.65 | 244 | $13,091.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $56.47 | 244 | $13,778.68 | $13,799.84 |
+$686.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $56.46 | 244 | $13,777.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.53 | 244 | $13,306.54 | $13,329.09 |
$-470.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.18 | 241 | $13,298.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.52 | 241 | $10,247.32 | $10,278.03 |
$-3,051.06 (-22.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $47.72 | 215 | $10,260.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.87 | 215 | $9,860.98 | $9,878.19 |
$-399.84 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 1:00pm ET | $44.12 | 223 | $9,838.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 10:00am ET | $42.69 | 223 | $9,519.87 | $9,559.30 |
$-318.89 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $41.44 | 230 | $9,531.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $43.56 | 230 | $10,018.80 | $10,046.90 |
+$487.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:25am ET | $45.16 | 222 | $10,025.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 11:50am ET | $47.47 | 222 | $10,539.45 | $10,560.81 |
+$513.91 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $46.08 | 229 | $10,552.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $44.66 | 229 | $10,227.14 | $10,235.63 |
$-325.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $43.80 | 233 | $10,205.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $42.47 | 233 | $9,895.51 | $9,925.74 |
$-309.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 2:05pm ET | $42.33 | 234 | $9,906.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.66 | 234 | $10,450.44 | $10,469.79 |
+$544.05 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $48.24 | 217 | $10,467.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 12:30pm ET | $50.73 | 217 | $11,008.41 | $11,011.20 |
+$541.41 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $51.65 | 213 | $11,001.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.44 | 213 | $10,317.72 | $10,327.47 |
$-683.73 (-6.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $48.42 | 213 | $10,313.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.51 | 213 | $9,905.57 | $9,919.58 |
$-407.89 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 1:20pm ET | $47.03 | 210 | $9,877.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.90 | 210 | $10,689.00 | $10,731.23 |
+$811.65 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 1:50pm ET | $55.08 | 194 | $10,686.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 11:00am ET | $57.85 | 194 | $11,223.87 | $11,268.61 |
+$537.38 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 12:45pm ET | $54.33 | 207 | $11,246.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $57.40 | 207 | $11,881.14 | $11,903.44 |
+$634.83 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET | $56.72 | 209 | $11,854.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $54.84 | 209 | $11,461.56 | $11,510.52 |
$-392.92 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $55.16 | 208 | $11,473.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.19 | 208 | $10,855.52 | $10,892.76 |
$-617.76 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $54.57 | 199 | $10,860.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.81 | 199 | $10,510.18 | $10,542.92 |
$-349.84 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.98 | 206 | $10,501.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.40 | 206 | $9,970.40 | $10,011.44 |
$-531.48 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.26 | 211 | $9,970.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 11:10am ET | $49.68 | 211 | $10,482.48 | $10,523.11 |
+$511.67 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 3:45pm ET | $49.78 | 211 | $10,503.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $48.21 | 211 | $10,172.31 | $10,191.84 |
$-331.27 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:15am ET | $34.30 | 297 | $10,187.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $36.37 | 297 | $10,801.89 | $10,806.63 |
+$614.79 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 1:10pm ET | $37.84 | 285 | $10,784.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $36.69 | 285 | $10,455.23 | $10,477.06 |
$-329.57 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2026 2:25pm ET | $36.57 | 286 | $10,459.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.98 | 286 | $11,148.28 | $11,166.32 |
+$689.26 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $36.97 | 302 | $11,164.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $35.86 | 302 | $10,829.72 | $10,831.10 |
$-335.22 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 12:45pm ET | $38.63 | 280 | $10,816.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 10:45am ET | $37.40 | 280 | $10,470.60 | $10,485.30 |
$-345.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $38.23 | 274 | $10,474.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 10:05am ET | $40.32 | 274 | $11,047.68 | $11,058.81 |
+$573.51 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 2:45pm ET | $40.18 | 275 | $11,049.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $43.20 | 275 | $11,880.00 | $11,889.31 |
+$830.50 (+7.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:10pm ET | $44.99 | 264 | $11,877.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $43.57 | 264 | $11,502.48 | $11,514.43 |
$-374.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 1:40pm ET | $45.29 | 254 | $11,503.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.63 | 254 | $12,098.02 | $12,108.79 |
+$594.36 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 10:35am ET | $50.30 | 240 | $12,072.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $48.55 | 240 | $11,651.09 | $11,687.88 |
$-420.91 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.86 | 249 | $11,668.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.00 | 249 | $12,699.00 | $12,718.74 |
+$1,030.86 (+8.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $50.33 | 252 | $12,684.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:15am ET | $48.82 | 252 | $12,302.64 | $12,336.96 |
$-381.78 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,336.96
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,336.96
Total Return:
+23.37%