Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-24 22:47:54

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
53.6 neutral
20d Trend
-3.7%
5d Trend
+4.3%
EMA20 Dist
+1.1%
ATR%
2.8%
Range Pos
81%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.2/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 5.0

30-Day Momentum

1
-6.0%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,978
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,246.33
Current Value
$6,740.17
Period P&L
$-506.19
Max Drawdown
-50.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
8 / 10
Best Trade
+5.32%
Worst Trade
-12.96%
Avg Trade Return
-0.28%
Avg Hold Time
7.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$223,799.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-506.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-506.19
Gross Return
-6.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-6.99%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 REGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,246.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $728.51 9 $6,556.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:45am ET $765.42 9 $6,888.78 $7,578.55 +$332.19
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $773.23 9 $6,959.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 11:25am ET $749.94 9 $6,749.46 $7,368.94 $-209.61
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET $761.54 9 $6,853.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 12:35pm ET $738.65 9 $6,647.85 $7,162.91 $-206.03
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:30pm ET $753.86 9 $6,784.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $703.09 9 $6,327.81 $6,705.98 $-456.93
(-6.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 2:05pm ET $703.10 9 $6,327.94 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $612.01 9 $5,508.09 $5,886.13 $-819.85
(-13.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8d held
6 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 1:15pm ET $633.21 9 $5,698.89 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 2:15pm ET $613.58 9 $5,522.22 $5,709.46 $-176.67
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:10pm ET $600.54 9 $5,404.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $632.50 9 $5,692.50 $5,997.10 +$287.64
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 10:10am ET $626.32 9 $5,636.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $606.78 9 $5,461.02 $5,821.29 $-175.81
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:40am ET $608.97 9 $5,480.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 2, 2026 10:15am ET $640.00 9 $5,760.00 $6,100.60 +$279.31
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
20d held
10 🟢 BUY Jul 6, 2026 10:15am ET $641.74 9 $5,775.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 12:40pm ET $674.34 9 $6,069.02 $6,393.96 +$293.36
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 3:25pm ET $662.94 9 $5,966.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 9:45am ET $642.94 9 $5,786.46 $6,213.96 $-180.00
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 1:35pm ET $664.61 9 $5,981.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET $699.38 9 $6,294.42 $6,526.85 +$312.89
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $754.30 8 $6,034.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 10, 2026 9:40am ET $793.71 8 $6,349.68 $6,842.13 +$315.28
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 11, 2026 10:55am ET $805.01 8 $6,440.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 21, 2026 11:00am ET $846.52 8 $6,772.12 $7,174.17 +$332.04
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 12:35pm ET $835.30 8 $6,682.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET $804.65 8 $6,437.20 $6,928.97 $-245.20
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET $797.55 8 $6,380.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 9:40am ET $839.63 8 $6,717.04 $7,265.61 +$336.64
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 10:10am ET $844.71 8 $6,757.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $806.85 8 $6,454.80 $6,962.73 $-302.88
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:30am ET $803.83 8 $6,430.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 15, 2026 9:50am ET $776.01 8 $6,208.08 $6,740.17 $-222.56
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,740.17
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,259.83
Total Return: -32.60%
Back to Marcus Reversal