RIVN Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 47 trades in period
-14.05%
Last 6 Months Return
$4,303.35
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$5,006.78
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.2/10
Raw Quality
4.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 4.2
30-Day Momentum
6
-18.1%
30d Return
13%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1
Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$5,006.78
Current Value
$4,303.35
Period P&L
$-703.38
Max Drawdown
-51.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
18 /
29
Best Trade
+7.26%
Worst Trade
-9.68%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$524,532.98
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-703.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$-703.38
Gross Return
-14.05%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.05%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,006.78 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $15.41 | 306 | $4,715.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.33 | 306 | $4,995.45 | $4,997.55 |
+$279.99 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.38 | 324 | $4,983.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $14.91 | 324 | $4,830.84 | $4,845.27 |
$-152.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:55pm ET | $14.57 | 332 | $4,838.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.57 | 332 | $5,169.24 | $5,175.61 |
+$330.34 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 12:25pm ET | $15.14 | 341 | $5,161.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.66 | 341 | $4,999.06 | $5,013.63 |
$-161.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $14.97 | 335 | $5,013.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $15.83 | 335 | $5,303.08 | $5,303.44 |
+$289.81 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 11:35am ET | $15.35 | 345 | $5,297.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.47 | 345 | $5,682.15 | $5,688.11 |
+$384.67 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:20pm ET | $16.23 | 350 | $5,678.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.11 | 350 | $5,988.50 | $5,997.86 |
+$309.75 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.83 | 356 | $5,993.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 11:50am ET | $17.76 | 356 | $6,324.34 | $6,328.94 |
+$331.08 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:00pm ET | $17.11 | 369 | $6,315.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.50 | 369 | $6,088.50 | $6,102.01 |
$-226.93 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $16.52 | 369 | $6,095.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $16.01 | 369 | $5,909.53 | $5,915.96 |
$-186.05 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:50am ET | $15.98 | 370 | $5,910.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.47 | 370 | $5,723.90 | $5,729.11 |
$-186.85 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.70 | 389 | $5,718.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 10:25am ET | $14.21 | 389 | $5,527.69 | $5,538.54 |
$-190.57 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 10:35am ET | $13.91 | 398 | $5,538.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:45am ET | $14.61 | 398 | $5,816.77 | $5,817.14 |
+$278.60 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 11:50am ET | $13.82 | 420 | $5,806.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.27 | 420 | $5,573.40 | $5,584.04 |
$-233.10 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 9:40am ET | $12.77 | 437 | $5,578.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $13.43 | 437 | $5,869.39 | $5,875.13 |
+$291.09 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 2:45pm ET | $14.22 | 413 | $5,870.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:35am ET | $14.93 | 413 | $6,166.13 | $6,170.47 |
+$295.34 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 2:50pm ET | $16.22 | 380 | $6,163.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $17.04 | 380 | $6,475.20 | $6,482.07 |
+$311.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 2:50pm ET | $17.36 | 373 | $6,477.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 10:20am ET | $18.26 | 373 | $6,812.84 | $6,817.77 |
+$335.70 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $18.14 | 375 | $6,800.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $17.55 | 375 | $6,581.25 | $6,598.39 |
$-219.38 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $17.32 | 381 | $6,597.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.55 | 381 | $6,305.55 | $6,306.92 |
$-291.47 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.53 | 406 | $6,305.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 2:35pm ET | $15.04 | 406 | $6,106.24 | $6,107.98 |
$-198.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 11, 2026 2:50pm ET | $15.23 | 400 | $6,094.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.03 | 400 | $6,412.04 | $6,426.02 |
+$318.04 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 15, 2026 1:40pm ET | $16.82 | 382 | $6,423.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.13 | 382 | $6,160.63 | $6,163.32 |
$-262.70 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 10:50am ET | $16.16 | 381 | $6,155.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 22, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.67 | 381 | $5,970.27 | $5,978.53 |
$-184.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $14.93 | 400 | $5,970.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 2:45pm ET | $14.46 | 400 | $5,783.28 | $5,791.81 |
$-186.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:10pm ET | $15.51 | 373 | $5,783.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 10:10am ET | $16.30 | 373 | $6,079.90 | $6,088.34 |
+$296.53 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 1:45pm ET | $17.51 | 347 | $6,077.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $18.65 | 347 | $6,469.82 | $6,480.45 |
+$392.11 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $19.67 | 329 | $6,469.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.76 | 329 | $5,843.30 | $5,853.97 |
$-626.48 (-9.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.65 | 374 | $5,851.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 12:05pm ET | $16.43 | 374 | $6,146.69 | $6,149.43 |
+$295.46 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:45am ET | $18.33 | 335 | $6,140.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $17.72 | 335 | $5,934.53 | $5,943.41 |
$-206.02 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $17.29 | 343 | $5,930.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2026 1:40pm ET | $16.74 | 343 | $5,740.11 | $5,753.04 |
$-190.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 2:55pm ET | $17.77 | 323 | $5,741.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $17.23 | 323 | $5,563.68 | $5,575.39 |
$-177.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $17.26 | 323 | $5,573.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.73 | 323 | $5,403.79 | $5,405.39 |
$-170.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.25 | 332 | $5,395.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $15.76 | 332 | $5,230.66 | $5,241.05 |
$-164.34 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 2:35pm ET | $16.55 | 316 | $5,229.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:45am ET | $16.00 | 316 | $5,056.00 | $5,067.25 |
$-173.80 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:35am ET | $16.35 | 309 | $5,053.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 10:10am ET | $15.82 | 309 | $4,889.92 | $4,903.48 |
$-163.77 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 11:50am ET | $15.52 | 315 | $4,890.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 3:40pm ET | $16.31 | 315 | $5,136.08 | $5,149.18 |
+$245.70 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.09 | 320 | $5,148.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $15.58 | 320 | $4,985.60 | $4,985.98 |
$-163.20 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 2:30pm ET | $14.82 | 336 | $4,981.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 2:35pm ET | $15.63 | 336 | $5,250.03 | $5,254.81 |
+$268.83 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 1:30pm ET | $16.86 | 311 | $5,245.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 10:35am ET | $16.32 | 311 | $5,075.52 | $5,085.31 |
$-169.50 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.30 | 311 | $5,069.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $15.81 | 311 | $4,915.36 | $4,931.37 |
$-153.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 12:05pm ET | $16.11 | 306 | $4,931.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $15.45 | 306 | $4,727.70 | $4,727.88 |
$-203.49 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $15.55 | 304 | $4,725.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 12:50pm ET | $16.35 | 304 | $4,971.92 | $4,974.12 |
+$246.24 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $16.12 | 308 | $4,964.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.38 | 308 | $4,736.52 | $4,745.65 |
$-228.47 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.52 | 305 | $4,732.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 2:45pm ET | $15.05 | 305 | $4,588.73 | $4,602.30 |
$-143.35 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2h held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 3:10pm ET | $15.65 | 294 | $4,599.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.10 | 294 | $4,439.40 | $4,442.07 |
$-160.23 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 21, 2026 10:45am ET | $15.35 | 289 | $4,437.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.88 | 289 | $4,298.88 | $4,303.35 |
$-138.72 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$4,303.35
Net Profit/Loss:
$-5,696.65
Total Return:
-56.97%