SMCI Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 54 trades in period
-29.82%
Last 6 Months Return
$1,153.85
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$1,644.02
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality
3.9/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 3.9
30-Day Momentum
20
+3.3%
30d Return
43%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.2
Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$1,644.02
Current Value
$1,153.85
Period P&L
$-490.23
Max Drawdown
-88.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.11
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
54
Winners / Losers
17 /
37
Best Trade
+13.19%
Worst Trade
-8.90%
Avg Trade Return
-0.53%
Avg Hold Time
1.5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$163,302.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-490.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$-490.23
Gross Return
-29.82%
Net Return (after fees)
-29.82%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 54 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $1,644.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:30pm ET | $21.73 | 74 | $1,607.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $23.06 | 74 | $1,706.44 | $1,724.74 |
+$98.79 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 10:05am ET | $23.43 | 73 | $1,710.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET | $22.65 | 73 | $1,653.45 | $1,667.44 |
$-57.30 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
45m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $21.66 | 76 | $1,646.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 2:55pm ET | $21.00 | 76 | $1,596.38 | $1,617.65 |
$-49.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET | $22.75 | 71 | $1,615.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.99 | 71 | $1,561.29 | $1,563.34 |
$-54.31 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $22.69 | 68 | $1,542.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $21.91 | 68 | $1,489.88 | $1,510.31 |
$-53.03 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $22.95 | 65 | $1,491.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.22 | 65 | $1,574.30 | $1,592.86 |
+$82.55 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $24.58 | 64 | $1,573.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:30pm ET | $25.85 | 64 | $1,654.40 | $1,674.14 |
+$81.28 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:55pm ET | $27.41 | 61 | $1,672.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.00 | 61 | $1,769.00 | $1,771.13 |
+$96.99 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $27.83 | 63 | $1,752.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $29.35 | 63 | $1,849.05 | $1,867.20 |
+$96.07 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:20pm ET | $29.10 | 64 | $1,862.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.51 | 64 | $1,696.64 | $1,701.44 |
$-165.76 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:10pm ET | $28.63 | 59 | $1,689.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 11:20am ET | $27.66 | 59 | $1,631.65 | $1,643.92 |
$-57.52 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:35pm ET | $27.29 | 60 | $1,637.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $26.28 | 60 | $1,576.80 | $1,583.09 |
$-60.83 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.1h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 12:25pm ET | $27.70 | 57 | $1,579.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.36 | 57 | $1,787.52 | $1,791.43 |
+$208.34 (+13.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $34.30 | 52 | $1,783.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 1:20pm ET | $33.16 | 52 | $1,724.32 | $1,732.14 |
$-59.29 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 12:25pm ET | $35.11 | 49 | $1,720.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 3:25pm ET | $33.97 | 49 | $1,664.77 | $1,676.52 |
$-55.62 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 10:10am ET | $32.24 | 51 | $1,644.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $31.25 | 51 | $1,593.75 | $1,625.78 |
$-50.74 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $30.43 | 53 | $1,612.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $32.21 | 53 | $1,707.13 | $1,720.12 |
+$94.34 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $32.75 | 52 | $1,702.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:40am ET | $34.54 | 52 | $1,796.08 | $1,813.45 |
+$93.33 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 3:10pm ET | $37.06 | 48 | $1,778.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $39.53 | 48 | $1,897.20 | $1,931.83 |
+$118.38 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $45.88 | 42 | $1,927.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.66 | 42 | $2,043.72 | $2,048.38 |
+$116.55 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET | $48.42 | 42 | $2,033.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $46.69 | 42 | $1,960.98 | $1,975.73 |
$-72.65 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $47.32 | 41 | $1,940.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.97 | 41 | $1,843.85 | $1,879.46 |
$-96.27 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $44.08 | 42 | $1,851.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $42.59 | 42 | $1,788.94 | $1,817.04 |
$-62.42 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $35.90 | 50 | $1,795.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2026 10:40am ET | $34.58 | 50 | $1,729.25 | $1,751.28 |
$-65.76 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 11:50am ET | $30.25 | 57 | $1,724.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $31.87 | 57 | $1,816.59 | $1,843.62 |
+$92.34 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:00am ET | $30.30 | 60 | $1,818.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET | $29.39 | 60 | $1,763.10 | $1,788.72 |
$-54.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $29.16 | 61 | $1,778.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $28.24 | 61 | $1,722.34 | $1,732.60 |
$-56.12 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 3:05pm ET | $35.88 | 48 | $1,722.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $33.16 | 48 | $1,591.68 | $1,602.04 |
$-130.56 (-7.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $32.88 | 48 | $1,578.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 1:20pm ET | $31.88 | 48 | $1,530.24 | $1,554.04 |
$-48.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 1:20pm ET | $31.82 | 48 | $1,527.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 12:10pm ET | $30.86 | 48 | $1,481.28 | $1,508.06 |
$-45.98 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 29, 2026 2:00pm ET | $28.52 | 52 | $1,483.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 10:45am ET | $27.55 | 52 | $1,432.60 | $1,457.62 |
$-50.44 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $27.71 | 52 | $1,440.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $26.86 | 52 | $1,396.98 | $1,413.68 |
$-43.94 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 2:50pm ET | $26.17 | 54 | $1,413.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 2:05pm ET | $27.57 | 54 | $1,488.51 | $1,489.01 |
+$75.33 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $28.47 | 52 | $1,480.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.52 | 52 | $1,431.04 | $1,439.87 |
$-49.14 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 3:10pm ET | $27.57 | 52 | $1,433.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:05pm ET | $26.65 | 52 | $1,385.54 | $1,391.77 |
$-48.10 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 12:05pm ET | $25.12 | 55 | $1,381.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $24.18 | 55 | $1,329.90 | $1,340.07 |
$-51.70 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:10am ET | $23.98 | 55 | $1,318.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $25.23 | 55 | $1,387.38 | $1,408.55 |
+$68.48 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 1:15pm ET | $31.25 | 45 | $1,406.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.24 | 45 | $1,360.80 | $1,363.32 |
$-45.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 9:55am ET | $29.90 | 45 | $1,345.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $28.98 | 45 | $1,304.10 | $1,322.14 |
$-41.18 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 10:30am ET | $27.49 | 48 | $1,319.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 11:40am ET | $26.65 | 48 | $1,278.96 | $1,281.58 |
$-40.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET | $27.81 | 46 | $1,279.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $29.61 | 46 | $1,362.06 | $1,364.38 |
+$82.80 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $30.75 | 44 | $1,353.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $29.57 | 44 | $1,301.08 | $1,312.46 |
$-51.92 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $32.37 | 40 | $1,294.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2026 1:15pm ET | $31.40 | 40 | $1,255.80 | $1,273.46 |
$-39.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $40.72 | 31 | $1,262.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 3:35pm ET | $39.40 | 31 | $1,221.25 | $1,232.54 |
$-40.92 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $38.01 | 32 | $1,216.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $36.81 | 32 | $1,177.92 | $1,194.30 |
$-38.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 1:10pm ET | $37.22 | 32 | $1,191.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 11:25am ET | $36.10 | 32 | $1,155.04 | $1,158.14 |
$-36.16 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 21, 2026 1:30pm ET | $36.86 | 31 | $1,142.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $35.54 | 31 | $1,101.74 | $1,117.22 |
$-40.92 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 3:45pm ET | $37.94 | 29 | $1,100.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.56 | 29 | $1,060.24 | $1,077.06 |
$-40.16 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.7d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.43 | 29 | $1,056.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $38.71 | 29 | $1,122.59 | $1,143.18 |
+$66.12 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 12:10pm ET | $40.72 | 28 | $1,140.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $39.43 | 28 | $1,104.04 | $1,107.06 |
$-36.12 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 12:20pm ET | $38.29 | 28 | $1,072.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2026 10:30am ET | $40.32 | 28 | $1,128.96 | $1,163.90 |
+$56.84 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 14, 2026 10:30am ET | $37.60 | 30 | $1,128.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $36.46 | 30 | $1,093.80 | $1,129.70 |
$-34.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 3:05pm ET | $36.10 | 31 | $1,119.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.05 | 31 | $1,179.55 | $1,190.15 |
+$60.45 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $39.65 | 30 | $1,189.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 18, 2026 12:25pm ET | $38.44 | 30 | $1,153.20 | $1,153.85 |
$-36.30 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$1,153.85
Net Profit/Loss:
$-8,846.15
Total Return:
-88.46%