SOFI Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 42 trades in period
-8.06%
Last 6 Months Return
$13,420.73
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$14,596.60
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
24
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.8/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
0.8/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality
24.1/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 24.0
30-Day Momentum
7
+1.1%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 9.7
Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$14,596.60
Current Value
$13,420.73
Period P&L
$-1,175.85
Max Drawdown
-35.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
16 /
26
Best Trade
+10.21%
Worst Trade
-12.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.11%
Avg Hold Time
2.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,186,546.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,175.85
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,175.85
Gross Return
-8.06%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.06%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,596.60 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:30pm ET | $17.16 | 862 | $14,791.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.62 | 862 | $14,326.44 | $14,337.97 |
$-465.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $16.88 | 849 | $14,326.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.25 | 849 | $13,796.25 | $13,807.35 |
$-530.63 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.68 | 880 | $13,798.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:00pm ET | $15.19 | 880 | $13,371.60 | $13,380.55 |
$-426.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.81 | 846 | $13,371.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.18 | 846 | $12,842.28 | $12,851.80 |
$-528.75 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $16.07 | 799 | $12,835.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.70 | 799 | $14,146.29 | $14,162.16 |
+$1,310.36 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.97 | 886 | $14,149.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:50pm ET | $16.77 | 886 | $14,858.22 | $14,870.96 |
+$708.80 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $17.68 | 840 | $14,855.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $18.58 | 840 | $15,611.40 | $15,626.96 |
+$756.00 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $19.05 | 820 | $15,620.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $20.09 | 820 | $16,477.90 | $16,483.94 |
+$856.98 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $19.23 | 857 | $16,477.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $18.61 | 857 | $15,953.05 | $15,959.71 |
$-524.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $18.74 | 851 | $15,943.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.48 | 851 | $14,024.48 | $14,040.70 |
$-1,919.01 (-12.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:30pm ET | $16.13 | 870 | $14,028.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $15.63 | 870 | $13,598.10 | $13,610.05 |
$-430.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $16.06 | 847 | $13,598.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $15.56 | 847 | $13,183.55 | $13,195.02 |
$-415.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 1:55pm ET | $15.42 | 855 | $13,184.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.28 | 855 | $13,919.40 | $13,930.32 |
+$735.30 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.13 | 921 | $13,930.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.90 | 921 | $14,648.50 | $14,648.70 |
+$718.38 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $15.95 | 918 | $14,642.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $16.78 | 918 | $15,399.54 | $15,406.14 |
+$757.44 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $18.32 | 840 | $15,388.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.74 | 840 | $14,903.20 | $14,920.54 |
$-485.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $18.06 | 826 | $14,913.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:00pm ET | $17.49 | 826 | $14,446.74 | $14,453.85 |
$-466.69 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 3:00pm ET | $16.69 | 865 | $14,441.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $16.11 | 865 | $13,939.47 | $13,952.15 |
$-501.70 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 2:00pm ET | $16.49 | 846 | $13,946.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.98 | 846 | $13,519.08 | $13,524.92 |
$-427.23 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $16.11 | 839 | $13,516.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.31 | 839 | $14,518.90 | $14,527.44 |
+$1,002.52 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.29 | 840 | $14,525.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $18.18 | 840 | $15,275.40 | $15,277.73 |
+$750.29 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.51 | 872 | $15,273.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.75 | 872 | $14,606.00 | $14,610.65 |
$-667.08 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $17.87 | 817 | $14,599.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $17.27 | 817 | $14,109.59 | $14,120.45 |
$-490.20 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 26, 2026 2:10pm ET | $17.76 | 794 | $14,105.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 12:50pm ET | $18.65 | 794 | $14,810.96 | $14,826.00 |
+$705.55 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $18.54 | 799 | $14,813.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $17.88 | 799 | $14,286.12 | $14,298.42 |
$-527.58 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:15am ET | $17.34 | 824 | $14,289.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $18.27 | 824 | $15,056.62 | $15,065.24 |
+$766.82 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $18.93 | 795 | $15,053.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $18.32 | 795 | $14,564.40 | $14,576.32 |
$-488.92 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 11:40am ET | $18.36 | 793 | $14,563.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.81 | 793 | $14,119.37 | $14,132.24 |
$-444.08 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $17.27 | 818 | $14,130.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.51 | 818 | $13,505.18 | $13,506.47 |
$-625.77 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $17.08 | 790 | $13,493.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $16.57 | 790 | $13,086.35 | $13,099.54 |
$-406.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 1:10pm ET | $16.53 | 792 | $13,091.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $17.40 | 792 | $13,780.80 | $13,788.58 |
+$689.04 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $16.42 | 839 | $13,780.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.73 | 839 | $13,197.47 | $13,205.48 |
$-583.10 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.26 | 865 | $13,201.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 12:05pm ET | $16.13 | 865 | $13,948.13 | $13,951.80 |
+$746.32 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:20am ET | $18.65 | 748 | $13,946.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.93 | 748 | $13,415.38 | $13,420.72 |
$-531.08 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 11:25am ET | $18.23 | 736 | $13,413.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 12, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.67 | 736 | $13,008.80 | $13,015.92 |
$-404.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2026 11:15am ET | $17.98 | 723 | $12,999.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.94 | 723 | $13,693.62 | $13,710.07 |
+$694.15 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.58 | 737 | $13,697.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.73 | 737 | $13,067.01 | $13,079.94 |
$-630.13 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.52 | 746 | $13,069.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.59 | 746 | $13,870.97 | $13,880.99 |
+$801.05 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $18.02 | 770 | $13,875.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $17.47 | 770 | $13,451.90 | $13,457.49 |
$-423.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 10, 2026 2:40pm ET | $17.24 | 780 | $13,443.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:00pm ET | $16.66 | 780 | $12,994.80 | $13,008.99 |
$-448.50 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 17, 2026 3:00pm ET | $16.76 | 775 | $12,992.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.85 | 775 | $13,837.62 | $13,853.74 |
+$844.75 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.94 | 817 | $13,844.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.42 | 817 | $13,411.06 | $13,420.73 |
$-433.01 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,420.73
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,420.73
Total Return:
+34.21%