SOFI Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-12-24 to present • 41 trades in period
-31.14%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,120.45
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$20,506.73
Period Start
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.
Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
14.6 oversold
20d Trend
-30.9%
5d Trend
-17.8%
EMA20 Dist
-19.9%
ATR%
6.6%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.
Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026
25
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.5/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
6.0/10
Raw Quality
26.0/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 25.5
30-Day Momentum
6
-0.3%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1
Conf: 0.81×
Declining (-20 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,830
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)
Market Closed (7 days)
2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$20,506.73
Current Value
$14,120.45
Period P&L
$-6,386.26
Max Drawdown
-35.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.18
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
13 /
28
Best Trade
+10.21%
Worst Trade
-12.04%
Avg Trade Return
-0.81%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,294,907.56
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-6,386.26
Net P&L (after fees)
$-6,386.26
Gross Return
-31.14%
Net Return (after fees)
-31.14%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SOFI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $20,506.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 1:30pm ET | $27.22 | 755 | $20,551.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 31, 2025 12:45pm ET | $26.36 | 755 | $19,905.20 | $19,928.74 |
$-646.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $29.25 | 681 | $19,919.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $28.24 | 681 | $19,230.76 | $19,240.25 |
$-688.49 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $26.57 | 724 | $19,236.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 12:45pm ET | $27.93 | 724 | $20,217.70 | $20,221.34 |
+$981.09 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:50pm ET | $27.84 | 726 | $20,211.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $26.78 | 726 | $19,442.28 | $19,451.78 |
$-769.56 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $26.52 | 733 | $19,435.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $25.70 | 733 | $18,834.44 | $18,850.72 |
$-601.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:10am ET | $25.58 | 736 | $18,826.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $24.75 | 736 | $18,216.00 | $18,239.84 |
$-610.88 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET | $23.32 | 782 | $18,232.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $22.58 | 782 | $17,661.31 | $17,668.83 |
$-571.02 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:55pm ET | $22.21 | 795 | $17,656.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET | $21.51 | 795 | $17,099.89 | $17,111.77 |
$-557.06 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $20.27 | 843 | $17,091.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:05am ET | $19.62 | 843 | $16,540.25 | $16,560.20 |
$-551.57 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:25pm ET | $20.87 | 793 | $16,549.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $21.25 | 793 | $16,855.21 | $16,865.50 |
+$305.30 (+1.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $19.27 | 875 | $16,861.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $18.64 | 875 | $16,306.32 | $16,310.57 |
$-554.93 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $18.30 | 891 | $16,300.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $19.22 | 891 | $17,120.57 | $17,130.29 |
+$819.72 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $19.15 | 894 | $17,120.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.12 | 894 | $16,201.07 | $16,211.26 |
$-919.03 (-5.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $18.07 | 897 | $16,204.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:25pm ET | $18.97 | 897 | $17,014.83 | $17,021.79 |
+$810.53 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:25pm ET | $18.73 | 908 | $17,006.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.93 | 908 | $16,280.44 | $16,295.48 |
$-726.31 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $18.07 | 901 | $16,281.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $17.51 | 901 | $15,775.70 | $15,790.11 |
$-505.37 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 2:00pm ET | $17.24 | 915 | $15,774.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:25pm ET | $16.67 | 915 | $15,248.57 | $15,264.17 |
$-525.94 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:55pm ET | $17.23 | 886 | $15,261.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $16.70 | 886 | $14,800.63 | $14,803.45 |
$-460.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:30pm ET | $17.16 | 862 | $14,791.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:25am ET | $16.62 | 862 | $14,326.44 | $14,337.97 |
$-465.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET | $16.88 | 849 | $14,326.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.25 | 849 | $13,796.25 | $13,807.35 |
$-530.63 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.68 | 880 | $13,798.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:00pm ET | $15.19 | 880 | $13,371.60 | $13,380.55 |
$-426.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.5h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 3:45pm ET | $15.81 | 846 | $13,371.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.18 | 846 | $12,842.28 | $12,851.80 |
$-528.75 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $16.07 | 799 | $12,835.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.70 | 799 | $14,146.29 | $14,162.16 |
+$1,310.36 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.97 | 886 | $14,149.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:50pm ET | $16.77 | 886 | $14,858.22 | $14,870.96 |
+$708.80 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:20pm ET | $17.68 | 840 | $14,855.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $18.58 | 840 | $15,611.40 | $15,626.96 |
+$756.00 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $19.05 | 820 | $15,620.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:30am ET | $20.09 | 820 | $16,477.90 | $16,483.94 |
+$856.98 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $19.23 | 857 | $16,477.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:55am ET | $18.61 | 857 | $15,953.05 | $15,959.71 |
$-524.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 11:00am ET | $18.74 | 851 | $15,943.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.48 | 851 | $14,024.48 | $14,040.70 |
$-1,919.01 (-12.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 12:30pm ET | $16.13 | 870 | $14,028.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $15.63 | 870 | $13,598.10 | $13,610.05 |
$-430.65 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $16.06 | 847 | $13,598.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 12:55pm ET | $15.56 | 847 | $13,183.55 | $13,195.02 |
$-415.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 1:55pm ET | $15.42 | 855 | $13,184.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 10:15am ET | $16.28 | 855 | $13,919.40 | $13,930.32 |
+$735.30 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 10:30am ET | $15.13 | 921 | $13,930.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.90 | 921 | $14,648.50 | $14,648.70 |
+$718.38 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | May 26, 2026 1:35pm ET | $15.95 | 918 | $14,642.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $16.78 | 918 | $15,399.54 | $15,406.14 |
+$757.44 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $18.32 | 840 | $15,388.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $17.74 | 840 | $14,903.20 | $14,920.54 |
$-485.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $18.06 | 826 | $14,913.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 3:00pm ET | $17.49 | 826 | $14,446.74 | $14,453.85 |
$-466.69 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 3:00pm ET | $16.69 | 865 | $14,441.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $16.11 | 865 | $13,939.47 | $13,952.15 |
$-501.70 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 2:00pm ET | $16.49 | 846 | $13,946.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $15.98 | 846 | $13,519.08 | $13,524.92 |
$-427.23 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $16.11 | 839 | $13,516.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.31 | 839 | $14,518.90 | $14,527.44 |
+$1,002.52 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:55am ET | $17.29 | 840 | $14,525.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $18.18 | 840 | $15,275.40 | $15,277.73 |
+$750.29 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $17.51 | 872 | $15,273.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.75 | 872 | $14,606.00 | $14,610.65 |
$-667.08 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $17.87 | 817 | $14,599.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:10pm ET | $17.27 | 817 | $14,109.59 | $14,120.45 |
$-490.20 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,120.45
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,120.45
Total Return:
+41.20%