Compendium › Marcus Reversal › SPXU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SPXU
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 26 trades in period

-3.61%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,689.47
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$10,052.45
Period Start
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PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:42:34

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.9/10
Raw Quality 3.9/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,052.45
Current Value
$9,689.47
Period P&L
$-362.98
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
10 / 16
Best Trade
+6.65%
Worst Trade
-8.61%
Avg Trade Return
-0.11%
Avg Hold Time
5.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$489,451.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-362.98
Net P&L (after fees)
$-362.98
Gross Return
-3.61%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,052.45 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $55.55 183 $10,165.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $58.36 183 $10,679.88 $10,733.21 +$514.23
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.3d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $59.91 179 $10,723.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $57.79 179 $10,344.41 $10,353.73 $-379.48
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 3:30pm ET $55.18 187 $10,318.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $58.00 187 $10,845.81 $10,880.88 +$527.15
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET $54.92 198 $10,873.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $50.19 198 $9,937.82 $9,944.93 $-935.95
(-8.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET $50.10 198 $9,919.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $48.55 198 $9,612.39 $9,637.71 $-307.22
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $46.56 206 $9,592.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET $45.08 206 $9,285.45 $9,330.77 $-306.94
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $43.16 216 $9,322.49 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $41.77 216 $9,022.32 $9,030.60 $-300.17
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:40am ET $41.60 217 $9,027.22 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:55am ET $40.29 217 $8,742.93 $8,746.31 $-284.29
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
9 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:55am ET $39.26 222 $8,715.72 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 9:30am ET $38.03 222 $8,442.66 $8,473.25 $-273.06
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
10 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $38.31 221 $8,466.51 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:45am ET $37.10 221 $8,199.10 $8,205.84 $-267.41
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held
11 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:50pm ET $37.17 220 $8,178.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $36.06 220 $7,932.10 $7,959.44 $-246.40
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $36.51 217 $7,923.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $38.38 217 $8,329.54 $8,365.23 +$405.79
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET $37.95 220 $8,349.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $40.20 220 $8,844.00 $8,860.23 +$495.00
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:55am ET $40.22 220 $8,848.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:30pm ET $38.88 220 $8,553.60 $8,565.47 $-294.76
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $36.90 232 $8,559.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $38.74 232 $8,987.68 $8,993.51 +$428.04
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET $36.99 243 $8,988.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $39.45 243 $9,586.35 $9,591.29 +$597.78
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 9:35am ET $38.50 249 $9,586.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 30, 2026 10:30am ET $37.33 249 $9,296.41 $9,300.96 $-290.33
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 1, 2026 10:40am ET $37.06 251 $9,300.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 23, 2026 11:30am ET $38.93 251 $9,771.43 $9,771.59 +$470.63
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22d held
19 🟢 BUY Jul 24, 2026 11:40am ET $37.84 258 $9,762.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 29, 2026 3:40pm ET $39.74 258 $10,252.92 $10,261.79 +$490.20
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held
20 🟢 BUY Jul 30, 2026 3:40pm ET $38.01 269 $10,224.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:30am ET $36.81 269 $9,901.89 $9,939.02 $-322.77
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held
21 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 9:30am ET $35.21 282 $9,929.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 11:50am ET $34.11 282 $9,619.02 $9,628.82 $-310.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $34.05 282 $9,602.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 13, 2026 10:00am ET $33.01 282 $9,308.96 $9,335.68 $-293.14
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
23 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 2:45pm ET $33.26 280 $9,314.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2026 2:10pm ET $34.97 280 $9,793.00 $9,814.48 +$478.80
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
24 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2026 3:35pm ET $34.67 283 $9,811.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2026 10:55am ET $33.60 283 $9,510.21 $9,513.09 $-301.39
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 3:45pm ET $34.63 274 $9,489.52 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $36.40 274 $9,973.60 $9,997.17 +$484.08
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
16d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 1:30pm ET $35.57 281 $9,995.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:55am ET $34.47 281 $9,687.47 $9,689.47 $-307.70
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,689.47
Net Profit/Loss: $-310.53
Total Return: -3.11%
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