Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-07-26 19:33:12

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
26
Fear
VIX
18.7
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.71%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.4
Unsettled
⛈️ 2 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jul 26, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 4.5/100
× Confidence 0.79 = 3.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,780
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-26 → 2026-07-24
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed)
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,637.02
Current Value
$6,913.20
Period P&L
$-723.83
Max Drawdown
-27.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.48

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
3 / 4
Best Trade
+3.25%
Worst Trade
-4.15%
Avg Trade Return
-1.23%
Avg Hold Time
26.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$100,796.49
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-723.83
Net P&L (after fees)
$-723.83
Gross Return
-9.48%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,637.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $87.44 86 $7,519.84
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $87.51 86 $7,525.86 $7,574.25 +$6.02
(+0.1%)
📅 Sim Ended
28.3d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $89.91 84 $7,552.47
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET $87.21 84 $7,325.72 $7,347.51 $-226.74
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $89.91 84 $7,552.47
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $86.18 84 $7,238.70 $7,033.74 $-313.77
(-4.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
33.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $85.69 82 $7,026.99
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $86.85 82 $7,121.29 $7,128.04 +$94.30
(+1.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 11:25am ET $86.59 82 $7,100.38
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $83.86 82 $6,876.52 $6,904.18 $-223.86
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held
6 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 10:55am ET $83.57 82 $6,852.74
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 10:55am ET $86.29 82 $7,075.78 $7,127.22 +$223.04
(+3.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 12:15pm ET $86.84 82 $7,120.88
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 10:20am ET $84.23 82 $6,906.86 $6,913.20 $-214.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,913.20
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,086.80
Total Return: -30.87%
Back to Marcus Reversal