TQQQ Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 49 trades in period
-23.65%
Last 6 Months Return
$6,591.53
Current Value
37%
Win Rate
$8,633.23
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
5.5/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 5.4
30-Day Momentum
14
+2.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
6
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 19.2
Conf: 0.74×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$8,633.23
Current Value
$6,591.53
Period P&L
$-2,041.70
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
49
Winners / Losers
18 /
31
Best Trade
+7.32%
Worst Trade
-9.44%
Avg Trade Return
-0.47%
Avg Hold Time
1.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$827,812.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,041.70
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,041.70
Gross Return
-23.65%
Net Return (after fees)
-23.65%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 49 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,633.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $44.83 | 195 | $8,741.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:50am ET | $43.31 | 195 | $8,446.42 | $8,480.17 |
$-295.44 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $44.20 | 191 | $8,442.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $42.82 | 191 | $8,178.62 | $8,216.59 |
$-263.58 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $40.22 | 204 | $8,203.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $39.01 | 204 | $7,957.02 | $7,969.75 |
$-246.84 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:15pm ET | $38.16 | 208 | $7,937.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $40.85 | 208 | $8,496.80 | $8,529.27 |
+$559.52 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $43.54 | 195 | $8,491.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.02 | 195 | $7,998.90 | $8,036.90 |
$-492.37 (-5.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 11:30am ET | $43.69 | 183 | $7,995.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET | $42.33 | 183 | $7,746.37 | $7,787.98 |
$-248.92 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $47.81 | 162 | $7,745.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $50.22 | 162 | $8,134.83 | $8,177.61 |
+$389.63 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $54.13 | 151 | $8,174.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:15pm ET | $56.86 | 151 | $8,585.86 | $8,589.09 |
+$411.48 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 1:35pm ET | $58.24 | 147 | $8,561.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $61.36 | 147 | $9,019.92 | $9,047.51 |
+$458.42 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET | $62.30 | 145 | $9,033.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET | $59.99 | 145 | $8,699.27 | $8,713.28 |
$-334.23 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET | $60.71 | 143 | $8,681.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $63.88 | 143 | $9,134.84 | $9,166.60 |
+$453.32 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $64.87 | 141 | $9,146.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.05 | 141 | $9,736.05 | $9,755.97 |
+$589.37 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET | $71.93 | 135 | $9,710.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 1:00pm ET | $75.54 | 135 | $10,197.23 | $10,242.63 |
+$486.66 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $76.80 | 133 | $10,214.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:00am ET | $74.49 | 133 | $9,906.51 | $9,934.73 |
$-307.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $78.89 | 125 | $9,861.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.66 | 125 | $9,457.50 | $9,530.36 |
$-404.37 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:45am ET | $74.77 | 127 | $9,495.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 12:30pm ET | $72.35 | 127 | $9,188.46 | $9,223.13 |
$-307.23 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 2:55pm ET | $73.24 | 125 | $9,155.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 1:35pm ET | $77.01 | 125 | $9,626.87 | $9,695.01 |
+$471.88 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 2:35pm ET | $78.51 | 123 | $9,657.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.79 | 123 | $10,183.17 | $10,220.84 |
+$525.83 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $81.09 | 126 | $10,217.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $85.27 | 126 | $10,744.27 | $10,747.77 |
+$526.93 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 3:00pm ET | $86.44 | 124 | $10,718.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.37 | 124 | $10,337.88 | $10,367.09 |
$-380.68 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $81.37 | 127 | $10,333.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:25am ET | $78.80 | 127 | $10,007.60 | $10,040.70 |
$-326.39 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $76.86 | 130 | $9,991.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $73.54 | 130 | $9,560.20 | $9,609.75 |
$-430.95 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET | $70.61 | 136 | $9,602.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET | $74.66 | 136 | $10,153.76 | $10,160.65 |
+$550.90 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $77.23 | 131 | $10,117.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $82.88 | 131 | $10,857.28 | $10,900.80 |
+$740.15 (+7.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $82.73 | 131 | $10,837.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET | $78.71 | 131 | $10,311.01 | $10,374.18 |
$-526.62 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $82.77 | 125 | $10,346.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.96 | 125 | $9,370.00 | $9,397.93 |
$-976.25 (-9.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $74.13 | 126 | $9,340.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2026 3:00pm ET | $71.82 | 126 | $9,049.31 | $9,106.96 |
$-290.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2026 3:35pm ET | $74.21 | 122 | $9,053.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $71.53 | 122 | $8,726.65 | $8,779.99 |
$-326.97 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.51 | 111 | $8,715.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 10:35am ET | $75.99 | 111 | $8,434.92 | $8,499.75 |
$-280.24 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 1:05pm ET | $76.76 | 110 | $8,444.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.53 | 110 | $8,088.30 | $8,143.90 |
$-355.85 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $70.57 | 115 | $8,115.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.74 | 115 | $8,595.10 | $8,623.45 |
+$479.55 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 11:00am ET | $75.23 | 114 | $8,576.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 12:35pm ET | $72.92 | 114 | $8,312.88 | $8,360.11 |
$-263.34 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $75.09 | 111 | $8,335.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $72.67 | 111 | $8,066.36 | $8,091.47 |
$-268.64 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 12:40pm ET | $71.36 | 113 | $8,063.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $66.54 | 113 | $7,519.03 | $7,547.39 |
$-544.08 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $68.72 | 109 | $7,490.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $66.63 | 109 | $7,262.66 | $7,319.57 |
$-227.82 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $63.99 | 114 | $7,294.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $62.00 | 114 | $7,068.00 | $7,093.28 |
$-226.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 9:55am ET | $60.12 | 117 | $7,034.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $58.30 | 117 | $6,821.09 | $6,880.33 |
$-212.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 31, 2026 10:40am ET | $63.72 | 107 | $6,818.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 10:55am ET | $67.24 | 107 | $7,194.68 | $7,256.43 |
+$376.10 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $74.62 | 97 | $7,238.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.07 | 97 | $6,893.79 | $6,912.07 |
$-344.36 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 12:30pm ET | $73.36 | 94 | $6,895.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $77.04 | 94 | $7,241.76 | $7,257.98 |
+$345.91 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 14, 2026 10:50am ET | $76.89 | 94 | $7,227.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $73.27 | 94 | $6,887.38 | $6,918.17 |
$-339.81 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 19, 2026 1:10pm ET | $72.29 | 95 | $6,867.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2026 2:10pm ET | $69.95 | 95 | $6,644.99 | $6,695.62 |
$-222.55 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.86 | 95 | $6,636.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:45am ET | $73.68 | 95 | $6,999.13 | $7,058.05 |
+$362.43 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.14 | 102 | $7,052.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.75 | 102 | $7,421.01 | $7,426.78 |
+$368.73 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 2:40pm ET | $72.49 | 102 | $7,393.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $68.93 | 102 | $7,030.86 | $7,063.67 |
$-363.11 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2026 12:40pm ET | $71.07 | 99 | $7,035.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $67.60 | 99 | $6,692.40 | $6,720.63 |
$-343.04 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $69.05 | 97 | $6,697.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $66.93 | 97 | $6,492.69 | $6,515.47 |
$-205.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $71.16 | 91 | $6,475.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $74.89 | 91 | $6,814.99 | $6,854.61 |
+$339.14 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 11:40am ET | $79.79 | 85 | $6,782.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $76.70 | 85 | $6,519.50 | $6,591.53 |
$-263.08 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,591.53
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,408.47
Total Return:
-34.08%