TSLA Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2026-03-24 to present • 32 trades in period
+23.76%
Last 6 Months Return
$15,506.52
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$12,529.59
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
28
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
5.7/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
1.3/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
27.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 27.8
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,984
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
128 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)
Market Closed (5 days)
2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$12,529.59
Current Value
$15,506.52
Period P&L
$2,976.90
Max Drawdown
-34.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
32
Winners / Losers
16 /
16
Best Trade
+7.35%
Worst Trade
-9.38%
Avg Trade Return
+0.87%
Avg Hold Time
3.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$916,876.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,976.90
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,976.90
Gross Return
+23.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+23.76%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 128 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 32 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,529.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $374.24 | 32 | $11,975.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $394.00 | 32 | $12,608.00 | $12,874.58 |
+$632.32 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $380.83 | 33 | $12,567.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.52 | 33 | $12,161.32 | $12,468.68 |
$-405.90 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 12:40pm ET | $359.92 | 34 | $12,237.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $378.69 | 34 | $12,875.46 | $13,106.69 |
+$638.01 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $364.39 | 35 | $12,753.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $353.29 | 35 | $12,365.15 | $12,718.20 |
$-388.49 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:30am ET | $338.92 | 37 | $12,540.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $363.84 | 37 | $13,462.08 | $13,640.24 |
+$922.04 (+7.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $344.43 | 39 | $13,432.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:25am ET | $361.87 | 39 | $14,113.00 | $14,320.47 |
+$680.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 1:30pm ET | $387.96 | 36 | $13,966.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $408.67 | 36 | $14,712.17 | $15,066.20 |
+$745.73 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:25pm ET | $388.60 | 38 | $14,766.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.69 | 38 | $14,200.22 | $14,499.62 |
$-566.58 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:05pm ET | $373.80 | 38 | $14,204.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:10am ET | $392.88 | 38 | $14,929.25 | $15,224.28 |
+$724.66 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $392.89 | 38 | $14,929.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $413.73 | 38 | $15,721.74 | $16,016.39 |
+$792.11 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 3:30pm ET | $425.17 | 37 | $15,731.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 2:25pm ET | $447.24 | 37 | $16,547.79 | $16,832.89 |
+$816.50 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET | $445.35 | 37 | $16,477.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $429.74 | 37 | $15,900.38 | $16,255.51 |
$-577.38 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $419.17 | 38 | $15,928.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 2:20pm ET | $406.01 | 38 | $15,428.43 | $15,755.67 |
$-499.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 10:40am ET | $414.72 | 37 | $15,344.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $442.62 | 37 | $16,376.85 | $16,787.99 |
+$1,032.32 (+6.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $436.70 | 38 | $16,594.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $422.20 | 38 | $16,043.55 | $16,236.75 |
$-551.24 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $420.90 | 38 | $15,994.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $406.31 | 38 | $15,439.78 | $15,682.33 |
$-554.42 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:25pm ET | $409.26 | 38 | $15,551.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $396.89 | 38 | $15,081.82 | $15,212.27 |
$-470.06 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:25am ET | $385.61 | 39 | $15,038.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $405.30 | 39 | $15,806.70 | $15,980.18 |
+$767.91 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $404.05 | 39 | $15,758.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $391.77 | 39 | $15,279.03 | $15,501.06 |
$-479.12 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 22, 2026 12:30pm ET | $406.96 | 38 | $15,464.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $391.91 | 38 | $14,892.58 | $14,929.16 |
$-571.90 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2026 12:35pm ET | $380.76 | 39 | $14,849.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 11:45am ET | $400.14 | 39 | $15,605.32 | $15,684.84 |
+$755.68 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2026 12:30pm ET | $427.88 | 36 | $15,403.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $413.79 | 36 | $14,896.44 | $15,177.78 |
$-507.06 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 2:10pm ET | $414.96 | 36 | $14,938.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2026 3:10pm ET | $402.26 | 36 | $14,481.36 | $14,720.40 |
$-457.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 1:55pm ET | $408.73 | 36 | $14,714.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $395.40 | 36 | $14,234.58 | $14,240.70 |
$-479.70 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 12:15pm ET | $395.90 | 35 | $13,856.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $381.29 | 35 | $13,345.15 | $13,729.35 |
$-511.35 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 20, 2026 10:00am ET | $375.36 | 36 | $13,512.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.16 | 36 | $12,245.76 | $12,462.15 |
$-1,267.20 (-9.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $311.00 | 40 | $12,440.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $301.56 | 40 | $12,062.40 | $12,084.39 |
$-377.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:45am ET | $302.61 | 39 | $11,801.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $318.12 | 39 | $12,406.68 | $12,689.47 |
+$605.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $321.95 | 39 | $12,556.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 13, 2026 2:25pm ET | $338.40 | 39 | $13,197.60 | $13,331.02 |
+$641.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 17, 2026 1:00pm ET | $339.64 | 39 | $13,245.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $357.03 | 39 | $13,924.26 | $14,009.32 |
+$678.30 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 10:05am ET | $353.56 | 39 | $13,788.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $372.76 | 39 | $14,537.64 | $14,758.12 |
+$748.80 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $360.98 | 40 | $14,439.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 2:00pm ET | $379.69 | 40 | $15,187.80 | $15,506.52 |
+$748.40 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,506.52
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,506.52
Total Return:
+55.07%