Compendium › Marcus Reversal › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2026-03-25 to present • 16 trades in period

-2.27%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,431.86
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$11,697.50
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:14:09

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
9.8/25
Win Rate
0.9/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 19.3/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 17.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,697.50
Current Value
$11,431.86
Period P&L
$-265.66
Max Drawdown
-24.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
6 / 10
Best Trade
+5.62%
Worst Trade
-4.56%
Avg Trade Return
-0.13%
Avg Hold Time
9.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$338,361.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-265.66
Net P&L (after fees)
$-265.66
Gross Return
-2.27%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.27%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,697.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 1:00pm ET $61.11 193 $11,794.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET $59.17 193 $11,420.77 $11,453.38 $-373.46
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET $59.51 192 $11,426.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $56.80 192 $10,905.60 $10,932.10 $-521.28
(-4.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET $58.59 186 $10,897.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:20am ET $56.68 186 $10,542.48 $10,576.84 $-355.26
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET $57.10 185 $10,564.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $55.39 185 $10,247.15 $10,259.56 $-317.28
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $56.47 181 $10,220.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $54.39 181 $9,844.95 $9,884.35 $-375.21
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $55.40 178 $9,860.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $58.51 178 $10,414.78 $10,438.82 +$554.47
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $59.37 175 $10,388.88 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $57.46 175 $10,055.50 $10,105.44 $-333.38
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
8 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:30am ET $55.74 181 $10,088.04 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $58.60 181 $10,605.70 $10,623.10 +$517.66
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
9 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:35am ET $58.76 180 $10,575.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $56.93 180 $10,247.42 $10,294.62 $-328.48
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9d held
10 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 12:30pm ET $57.08 180 $10,274.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $55.26 180 $9,945.90 $9,966.12 $-328.50
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:35am ET $55.19 180 $9,934.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:45am ET $53.37 180 $9,605.70 $9,637.62 $-328.50
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:50am ET $53.19 181 $9,626.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 8, 2026 11:15am ET $55.86 181 $10,110.66 $10,121.79 +$484.17
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
16.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 9, 2026 1:20pm ET $54.88 184 $10,097.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:30am ET $57.94 184 $10,660.96 $10,685.75 +$563.96
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 2:55pm ET $58.19 183 $10,649.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2026 2:20pm ET $61.10 183 $11,182.21 $11,218.28 +$532.53
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $61.85 181 $11,195.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 2, 2026 11:40am ET $65.04 181 $11,772.24 $11,794.77 +$576.49
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2026 12:20pm ET $65.11 181 $11,784.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:40am ET $63.10 181 $11,421.10 $11,431.86 $-362.91
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,431.86
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,431.86
Total Return: +14.32%
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