Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:01:28

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

35
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.3/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
3.3/15
Profit Factor
3.2/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 37.1/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 35.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,906
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
127 days
Data Gaps
None (5 market holidays)

Market Closed (5 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,740.84
Current Value
$16,768.22
Period P&L
$4,027.37
Max Drawdown
-25.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.35

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
11 / 9
Best Trade
+6.59%
Worst Trade
-3.57%
Avg Trade Return
+1.52%
Avg Hold Time
7.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$628,918.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,027.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,027.37
Gross Return
+31.61%
Net Return (after fees)
+31.61%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 127 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,740.84 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:30am ET $136.39 92 $12,547.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $131.62 92 $12,109.27 $12,223.58 $-438.61
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET $129.00 94 $12,126.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:55am ET $135.55 94 $12,741.70 $12,839.28 +$615.70
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET $134.70 95 $12,796.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 95 $13,600.67 $13,643.45 +$804.17
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET $140.70 96 $13,507.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $147.74 96 $14,183.52 $14,319.77 +$676.32
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $151.16 94 $14,209.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:35am ET $159.02 94 $14,947.88 $15,058.14 +$738.37
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:45am ET $159.37 94 $14,980.78 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:35am ET $168.39 94 $15,828.66 $15,906.02 +$847.88
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
7 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $170.40 93 $15,847.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:35am ET $178.93 93 $16,640.49 $16,699.31 +$793.29
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 3:10pm ET $177.33 94 $16,669.02 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 2:50pm ET $172.00 94 $16,168.00 $16,198.29 $-501.02
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
9 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:25pm ET $175.64 92 $16,158.87 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 10:00am ET $184.49 92 $16,973.08 $17,012.50 +$814.21
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
10 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 11:05am ET $183.13 92 $16,847.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $193.02 92 $17,757.84 $17,922.38 +$909.88
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $195.71 91 $17,809.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $188.73 91 $17,174.43 $17,287.19 $-635.19
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $184.86 93 $17,191.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $178.74 93 $16,622.82 $16,718.03 $-569.16
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET $178.21 93 $16,573.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $189.95 93 $17,665.35 $17,809.85 +$1,091.82
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:30am ET $189.46 94 $17,809.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 9:30am ET $183.66 94 $17,264.04 $17,264.65 $-545.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2026 3:35pm ET $183.51 94 $17,249.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 7, 2026 10:15am ET $177.17 94 $16,653.98 $16,668.69 $-595.96
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 10:50am ET $177.94 93 $16,548.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:35am ET $171.90 93 $15,986.70 $16,106.97 $-561.72
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 10:50am ET $176.53 91 $16,064.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET $170.42 91 $15,508.22 $15,550.96 $-556.01
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:40am ET $168.16 92 $15,471.18 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $177.24 92 $16,306.08 $16,385.86 +$834.90
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2026 10:55am ET $186.28 87 $16,206.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 24, 2026 9:35am ET $180.54 87 $15,706.98 $15,886.48 $-499.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Aug 25, 2026 10:55am ET $181.51 87 $15,790.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET $191.64 87 $16,672.68 $16,768.22 +$881.74
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
26.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,768.22
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,768.22
Total Return: +67.68%
Back to Marcus Reversal