JPM Marcus Reversal's Analysis
2024-01-02 19:55:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 71 trades executed
+47.22%
2 Years Return
$19,867.20
Current Value
47%
Win Rate
$13,495.17
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.6 neutral
20d Trend
-0.6%
5d Trend
+1.6%
EMA20 Dist
+0.2%
ATR%
1.7%
Range Pos
42%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
44
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
16.6/35
Total Return
16.6/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
3.8/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality
47.7/100
× Confidence 0.93
= 44.3
30-Day Momentum
0
-6.6%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-44 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
52,372
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
530 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$13,495.17
Current Value
$19,867.20
Total P&L
$6,372.04
Max Drawdown
-20.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
55
Winners / Losers
26 /
29
Best Trade
+8.44%
Worst Trade
-4.75%
Avg Trade Return
+0.80%
Avg Hold Time
11d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,954,231.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,372.04
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,372.04
Gross Return
+47.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+47.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 JPM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 530 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,495.17 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2024 10:10am ET | $210.36 | 64 | $13,463.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 11, 2024 9:50am ET | $221.58 | 64 | $14,181.12 | $14,213.25 |
+$718.08 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2024 9:50am ET | $220.74 | 64 | $14,127.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $238.17 | 64 | $15,242.56 | $15,328.45 |
+$1,115.20 (+7.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2024 9:40am ET | $240.56 | 63 | $15,155.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 9:30am ET | $247.36 | 63 | $15,583.68 | $15,756.85 |
+$428.40 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
32d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 9:35am ET | $243.63 | 64 | $15,592.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 2:05pm ET | $235.94 | 64 | $15,100.16 | $15,264.69 |
$-492.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2024 2:45pm ET | $232.91 | 65 | $15,139.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2025 11:30am ET | $244.71 | 65 | $15,906.15 | $16,031.69 |
+$767.00 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2025 2:15pm ET | $244.10 | 65 | $15,866.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2025 10:00am ET | $256.48 | 65 | $16,670.88 | $16,836.07 |
+$804.38 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 17, 2025 11:00am ET | $252.18 | 66 | $16,643.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $265.02 | 66 | $17,491.32 | $17,683.68 |
+$847.61 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 24, 2025 2:15pm ET | $264.22 | 66 | $17,438.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $278.00 | 66 | $18,347.93 | $18,593.09 |
+$909.41 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2025 9:50am ET | $273.01 | 68 | $18,564.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 21, 2025 1:25pm ET | $264.64 | 68 | $17,995.52 | $18,024.27 |
$-568.82 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 9:50am ET | $257.01 | 70 | $17,990.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 10:05am ET | $249.17 | 70 | $17,441.93 | $17,475.50 |
$-548.77 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2025 11:45am ET | $248.83 | 70 | $17,418.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 10:35am ET | $241.10 | 70 | $16,877.00 | $16,934.33 |
$-541.17 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 10:35am ET | $234.03 | 72 | $16,850.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2025 1:25pm ET | $226.86 | 72 | $16,333.92 | $16,418.09 |
$-516.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2025 2:05pm ET | $229.21 | 71 | $16,273.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 2:50pm ET | $241.11 | 71 | $17,118.81 | $17,262.99 |
+$844.90 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 21, 2025 9:50am ET | $238.06 | 72 | $17,140.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2025 11:10am ET | $250.04 | 72 | $18,002.83 | $18,125.50 |
+$862.51 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2025 12:00pm ET | $251.69 | 72 | $18,121.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 28, 2025 10:30am ET | $244.11 | 72 | $17,575.92 | $17,579.74 |
$-545.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2025 10:10am ET | $240.93 | 72 | $17,346.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 9:45am ET | $233.32 | 72 | $16,799.04 | $17,031.81 |
$-547.93 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:45am ET | $214.63 | 79 | $16,955.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $204.44 | 79 | $16,150.76 | $16,226.80 |
$-805.01 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 11:05am ET | $223.92 | 72 | $16,122.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 3:05pm ET | $216.40 | 72 | $15,580.86 | $15,685.42 |
$-541.38 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $229.01 | 68 | $15,572.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 12:20pm ET | $221.77 | 68 | $15,080.36 | $15,193.44 |
$-491.98 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $234.24 | 64 | $14,991.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 1:45pm ET | $226.99 | 64 | $14,527.36 | $14,729.44 |
$-464.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2025 1:45pm ET | $233.27 | 63 | $14,696.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2025 9:45am ET | $245.72 | 63 | $15,480.36 | $15,513.68 |
+$784.24 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 25, 2025 10:25am ET | $243.42 | 63 | $15,335.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2025 1:15pm ET | $255.65 | 63 | $16,105.95 | $16,284.17 |
+$770.49 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 11:55am ET | $259.21 | 62 | $16,071.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 11:55am ET | $268.06 | 62 | $16,619.72 | $16,832.87 |
+$548.70 (+3.4%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $264.18 | 63 | $16,643.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 3:00pm ET | $277.62 | 63 | $17,490.06 | $17,679.59 |
+$846.72 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.2d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 3:00pm ET | $281.50 | 62 | $17,453.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2025 10:50am ET | $295.73 | 62 | $18,335.26 | $18,561.85 |
+$882.26 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $285.96 | 64 | $18,301.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 9:35am ET | $300.32 | 64 | $19,220.48 | $19,480.89 |
+$919.04 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 3:00pm ET | $297.86 | 65 | $19,360.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $287.87 | 65 | $18,711.55 | $18,831.87 |
$-649.03 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 12:20pm ET | $292.32 | 64 | $18,708.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2025 12:20pm ET | $298.00 | 64 | $19,071.68 | $19,195.39 |
+$363.52 (+1.9%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 5, 2025 9:40am ET | $300.83 | 63 | $18,952.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2025 1:50pm ET | $291.70 | 63 | $18,377.10 | $18,620.20 |
$-575.19 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 3:20pm ET | $297.52 | 62 | $18,446.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 11:05am ET | $312.76 | 62 | $19,390.81 | $19,564.77 |
+$944.57 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2025 11:15am ET | $310.59 | 62 | $19,256.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 3:50pm ET | $301.23 | 62 | $18,676.26 | $18,984.45 |
$-580.32 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $299.06 | 63 | $18,840.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 2:25pm ET | $314.06 | 63 | $19,785.79 | $19,929.45 |
+$945.01 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.2d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 10, 2025 10:40am ET | $314.87 | 63 | $19,836.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $301.87 | 63 | $19,017.81 | $19,110.45 |
$-819.00 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 17, 2025 9:40am ET | $303.21 | 63 | $19,102.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 10:35am ET | $293.24 | 63 | $18,473.81 | $18,482.03 |
$-628.42 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 12:00pm ET | $297.43 | 62 | $18,440.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 10:15am ET | $312.40 | 62 | $19,368.80 | $19,410.17 |
+$928.14 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 2:20pm ET | $309.16 | 62 | $19,167.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 9:45am ET | $299.32 | 62 | $18,557.84 | $18,800.09 |
$-610.08 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $318.55 | 59 | $18,794.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $334.50 | 59 | $19,735.50 | $19,741.14 |
+$941.05 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $333.15 | 59 | $19,655.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $322.47 | 59 | $19,025.44 | $19,110.72 |
$-630.42 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $320.55 | 59 | $18,912.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $310.89 | 59 | $18,342.51 | $18,540.93 |
$-569.79 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:20am ET | $310.14 | 59 | $18,297.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $300.24 | 59 | $17,714.16 | $17,957.13 |
$-583.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $299.89 | 59 | $17,693.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $315.36 | 59 | $18,606.53 | $18,870.15 |
+$913.02 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.9d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:20pm ET | $316.81 | 59 | $18,691.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET | $306.01 | 59 | $18,054.47 | $18,232.86 |
$-637.29 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $322.70 | 56 | $18,071.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $322.06 | 56 | $18,035.36 | $18,197.01 |
$-35.84 (-0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.3h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:20pm ET | $305.15 | 59 | $18,004.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $295.92 | 59 | $17,459.28 | $17,652.15 |
$-544.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 2:45pm ET | $297.52 | 59 | $17,553.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $285.89 | 59 | $16,867.51 | $16,965.98 |
$-686.17 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $284.70 | 59 | $16,797.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $308.72 | 59 | $18,214.48 | $18,383.45 |
+$1,417.47 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
30d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $308.99 | 59 | $18,230.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.21 | 59 | $17,830.39 | $17,983.48 |
$-399.97 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $297.68 | 60 | $17,861.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $312.76 | 60 | $18,765.30 | $18,887.68 |
+$904.20 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.1d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 3:05pm ET | $311.59 | 60 | $18,695.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2026 10:15am ET | $327.42 | 60 | $19,645.20 | $19,837.48 |
+$949.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
10.8d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2026 12:40pm ET | $335.92 | 59 | $19,819.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $324.50 | 59 | $19,145.50 | $19,163.70 |
$-673.78 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $328.87 | 58 | $19,074.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $347.57 | 58 | $20,158.77 | $20,248.01 |
+$1,084.31 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $343.26 | 58 | $19,909.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $360.87 | 58 | $20,930.46 | $21,269.39 |
+$1,021.38 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $359.40 | 59 | $21,204.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 11:55am ET | $357.19 | 59 | $21,074.21 | $21,139.00 |
$-130.39 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 12:35pm ET | $355.43 | 59 | $20,970.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 11:45am ET | $344.57 | 59 | $20,329.61 | $20,498.24 |
$-640.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 1:05pm ET | $350.12 | 58 | $20,306.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $339.24 | 58 | $19,675.92 | $19,867.20 |
$-631.04 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,867.20
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,867.20
Total Return:
+98.67%