SOLUSD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Era 2: Feb 6, 2026 to 2026-03-04 22:40:00+00 • 27 trades (1 prior era crashed)
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026
Quality Components
30-Day Momentum
Data Transparency
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Era 2)
Trade Statistics (Era 2)
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Era 2)
⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker).
This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
💸 Capital Refund History
When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.
| # | Date | Capital Before | Trades Before | Era Fees Paid | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 6, 2026 | $91.87 | 793 | $15,391.38 | CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED |
⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.
📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures
Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.
📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time (Era 2)
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
Price Action + Equity Overlay (Era 2)
📈 SOLUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🔄 Era 2 Trade History (Current) (since refund on Feb 6, 2026 - 27 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,091.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET | $67.76 | 149 | $10,091.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET | $73.25 | 149 | $10,909.53 | $10,857.03 |
+$765.15 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:55pm ET | $76.84 | 141 | $10,857.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET | $81.53 | 141 | $11,520.71 | $11,464.77 |
+$607.74 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET | $79.15 | 145 | $11,464.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 8:20am ET | $83.18 | 145 | $12,048.51 | $11,989.72 |
+$524.96 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 6:45pm ET | $87.69 | 137 | $11,989.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 7, 2026 2:10am ET | $84.79 | 137 | $11,593.21 | $11,534.25 |
$-455.47 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.4h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 7, 2026 2:15am ET | $84.69 | 136 | $11,534.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET | $86.05 | 136 | $11,719.61 | $11,661.48 |
+$127.23 (+1.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:00am ET | $85.93 | 136 | $11,661.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $83.26 | 136 | $11,298.86 | $11,298.86 |
$-420.02 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET | $83.38 | 136 | $11,298.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:15am ET | $80.77 | 136 | $10,945.38 | $10,945.38 |
$-409.09 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:20am ET | $81.22 | 135 | $10,945.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 12:00pm ET | $78.17 | 135 | $10,534.20 | $10,534.20 |
$-464.88 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 16, 2026 10:50pm ET | $86.48 | 122 | $10,534.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $83.36 | 122 | $10,154.41 | $10,154.41 |
$-431.51 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:50am ET | $83.55 | 122 | $10,154.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:25pm ET | $80.97 | 122 | $9,841.43 | $9,841.43 |
$-362.97 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 2:35pm ET | $80.69 | 122 | $9,841.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $84.94 | 122 | $10,359.79 | $10,359.79 |
+$467.85 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 4:20pm ET | $84.43 | 123 | $10,359.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 7:40pm ET | $81.83 | 123 | $10,040.76 | $10,040.76 |
$-370.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:00pm ET | $81.35 | 123 | $10,040.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 22, 2026 8:20pm ET | $78.65 | 123 | $9,707.51 | $9,707.51 |
$-382.62 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 22, 2026 8:25pm ET | $78.32 | 124 | $9,707.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $75.91 | 124 | $9,408.80 | $9,408.80 |
$-346.50 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 1:15pm ET | $77.63 | 121 | $9,408.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 8:20pm ET | $82.05 | 121 | $9,944.51 | $9,944.51 |
+$487.32 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:30pm ET | $81.81 | 122 | $9,944.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:40am ET | $85.96 | 122 | $10,448.97 | $10,448.97 |
+$453.47 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 5:45pm ET | $88.94 | 117 | $10,448.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $85.73 | 117 | $10,071.85 | $10,071.85 |
$-428.42 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16.6h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $85.80 | 117 | $10,071.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 7:40am ET | $83.05 | 117 | $9,749.03 | $9,749.03 |
$-372.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 7:45am ET | $82.85 | 118 | $9,749.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:20am ET | $80.19 | 118 | $9,436.03 | $9,436.03 |
$-360.97 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 1:25am ET | $80.36 | 117 | $9,436.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:55am ET | $77.66 | 117 | $9,118.99 | $9,118.99 |
$-363.43 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 2:00am ET | $77.59 | 118 | $9,118.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $81.64 | 118 | $9,594.98 | $9,594.98 |
+$429.20 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2026 6:40pm ET | $84.00 | 114 | $9,594.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2026 9:05pm ET | $88.39 | 114 | $10,096.43 | $10,096.43 |
+$452.22 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 1:10am ET | $86.64 | 117 | $10,096.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 1, 2026 12:00pm ET | $84.01 | 117 | $9,789.95 | $9,789.95 |
$-356.20 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 1, 2026 12:05pm ET | $84.07 | 116 | $9,789.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $88.53 | 116 | $10,309.32 | $10,309.32 |
+$469.12 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $86.91 | 119 | $10,309.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:45am ET | $84.30 | 119 | $9,999.72 | $9,999.72 |
$-360.37 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 3:50am ET | $84.16 | 119 | $9,999.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 3:50am ET | $88.90 | 119 | $10,562.92 | $10,562.92 |
+$511.79 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 7:20am ET | $89.31 | 118 | $10,562.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:45pm ET | $93.83 | 118 | $11,097.51 | $11,097.51 |
+$480.44 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.4h held |
+ 1 refund ($10,000)