TLT Marcus Reversal's Analysis
2024-01-02 17:45:00+00 to 2026-09-24 19:55:00+00 • 44 trades executed
-30.81%
2 Years Return
$6,468.28
Current Value
30%
Win Rate
$9,348.83
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality
4.4/100
× Confidence 0.79
= 3.5
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
75,015
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-09-25 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed) ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,348.83
Current Value
$6,468.28
Total P&L
$-2,880.56
Max Drawdown
-27.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.42
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
33
Winners / Losers
10 /
23
Best Trade
+5.02%
Worst Trade
-4.15%
Avg Trade Return
-1.13%
Avg Hold Time
21.4d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$509,018.61
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,880.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,880.56
Gross Return
-30.81%
Net Return (after fees)
-30.81%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,348.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2024 11:40am ET | $100.74 | 94 | $9,469.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2024 10:20am ET | $97.71 | 94 | $9,184.27 | $9,248.73 |
$-285.29 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 27, 2024 10:45am ET | $98.24 | 94 | $9,234.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 7, 2024 9:30am ET | $95.07 | 94 | $8,937.04 | $8,951.21 |
$-297.52 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2024 9:30am ET | $94.50 | 94 | $8,883.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2024 11:45am ET | $91.61 | 94 | $8,611.21 | $8,679.42 |
$-271.79 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 30, 2024 10:50am ET | $92.53 | 93 | $8,605.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2024 9:30am ET | $89.75 | 93 | $8,346.75 | $8,420.88 |
$-258.54 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2024 1:45pm ET | $90.97 | 92 | $8,369.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2024 9:30am ET | $93.92 | 92 | $8,640.66 | $8,692.30 |
+$271.42 (+3.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2024 9:30am ET | $93.08 | 93 | $8,656.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 13, 2024 12:25pm ET | $90.26 | 93 | $8,394.18 | $8,430.06 |
$-262.24 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2024 1:10pm ET | $90.59 | 93 | $8,424.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 9:45am ET | $87.84 | 93 | $8,169.12 | $8,174.30 |
$-255.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 1:05pm ET | $88.64 | 92 | $8,154.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2025 10:35am ET | $85.93 | 92 | $7,905.31 | $7,925.19 |
$-249.11 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2025 12:30pm ET | $85.64 | 92 | $7,878.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2025 1:00pm ET | $89.92 | 92 | $8,272.64 | $8,319.41 |
+$394.22 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2025 3:05pm ET | $89.88 | 92 | $8,268.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 12, 2025 9:40am ET | $87.13 | 92 | $8,015.96 | $8,066.41 |
$-253.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 14, 2025 12:15pm ET | $89.32 | 90 | $8,038.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $90.64 | 90 | $8,157.52 | $8,185.13 |
+$118.72 (+1.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $90.71 | 90 | $8,163.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.02 | 90 | $7,831.79 | $7,853.47 |
$-331.66 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 10:35am ET | $87.85 | 89 | $7,818.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 11, 2025 11:00am ET | $85.13 | 89 | $7,576.13 | $7,610.95 |
$-242.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $87.09 | 87 | $7,576.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.63 | 87 | $7,449.93 | $7,484.06 |
$-126.90 (-1.7%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 10:40am ET | $86.42 | 86 | $7,431.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $83.44 | 86 | $7,176.24 | $7,228.60 |
$-255.45 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | May 23, 2025 2:25pm ET | $84.58 | 85 | $7,188.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.97 | 85 | $7,392.45 | $7,432.18 |
+$203.58 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.57 | 85 | $7,358.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.57 | 85 | $7,273.45 | $7,347.60 |
$-84.58 (-1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $85.79 | 85 | $7,291.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.71 | 85 | $7,370.34 | $7,426.22 |
+$78.62 (+1.1%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $86.54 | 85 | $7,356.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2025 2:15pm ET | $90.89 | 85 | $7,725.75 | $7,795.66 |
+$369.44 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2025 3:55pm ET | $89.19 | 87 | $7,759.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $91.44 | 87 | $7,955.26 | $7,991.39 |
+$195.73 (+2.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.7d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 22, 2025 9:50am ET | $91.88 | 86 | $7,901.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2025 11:00am ET | $89.08 | 86 | $7,660.88 | $7,750.90 |
$-240.50 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 6, 2025 12:45pm ET | $89.71 | 86 | $7,715.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.13 | 86 | $7,579.27 | $7,615.10 |
$-135.79 (-1.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 9, 2025 10:50am ET | $87.94 | 86 | $7,562.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 10:50am ET | $87.39 | 86 | $7,515.54 | $7,568.23 |
$-46.87 (-0.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.44 | 86 | $7,519.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $87.51 | 86 | $7,525.86 | $7,574.25 |
+$6.02 (+0.1%) |
📅 Sim Ended
28.3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $89.91 | 84 | $7,552.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $87.21 | 84 | $7,325.72 | $7,347.51 |
$-226.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $89.91 | 84 | $7,552.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.18 | 84 | $7,238.70 | $7,033.74 |
$-313.77 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
33.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.69 | 82 | $7,026.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.85 | 82 | $7,121.29 | $7,128.04 |
+$94.30 (+1.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $86.59 | 82 | $7,100.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.86 | 82 | $6,876.52 | $6,904.18 |
$-223.86 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 10:55am ET | $83.57 | 82 | $6,852.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 10:55am ET | $86.29 | 82 | $7,075.78 | $7,127.22 |
+$223.04 (+3.3%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 12:15pm ET | $86.84 | 82 | $7,120.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $84.23 | 82 | $6,906.86 | $6,913.20 |
$-214.02 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $84.49 | 81 | $6,843.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 1:35pm ET | $81.94 | 81 | $6,637.54 | $6,707.06 |
$-206.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2026 1:30pm ET | $82.70 | 81 | $6,698.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2026 1:30pm ET | $82.25 | 81 | $6,662.65 | $6,671.06 |
$-36.00 (-0.5%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2026 1:40pm ET | $82.30 | 81 | $6,666.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $79.80 | 81 | $6,463.80 | $6,468.28 |
$-202.78 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$6,468.28
Net Profit/Loss:
$-3,531.72
Total Return:
-35.32%