ADBE Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 30 trades in period
-33.68%
Year to Date Return
$5,189.90
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$7,825.37
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
23.9 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-9.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
3.4%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality
3.7/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 3.6
30-Day Momentum
3
-10.9%
30d Return
17%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,724
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
123 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$7,825.37
Current Value
$5,189.90
Period P&L
$-2,635.45
Max Drawdown
-42.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.28
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
30
Winners / Losers
8 /
22
Best Trade
+6.97%
Worst Trade
-9.16%
Avg Trade Return
-1.22%
Avg Hold Time
5d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$373,775.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,635.45
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,635.45
Gross Return
-33.68%
Net Return (after fees)
-33.68%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ADBE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 123 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 30 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,825.37 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $345.68 | 22 | $7,604.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $335.00 | 22 | $7,370.00 | $7,499.76 |
$-234.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 10:55am ET | $328.68 | 22 | $7,230.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $318.44 | 22 | $7,005.57 | $7,274.48 |
$-225.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $306.80 | 23 | $7,056.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $297.52 | 23 | $6,842.96 | $7,061.04 |
$-213.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $290.13 | 24 | $6,963.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $304.97 | 24 | $7,319.16 | $7,417.08 |
+$356.04 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $300.05 | 24 | $7,201.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $290.59 | 24 | $6,974.04 | $7,189.92 |
$-227.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $292.84 | 24 | $7,028.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $282.01 | 24 | $6,768.24 | $6,930.00 |
$-259.92 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.94 | 26 | $6,888.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $278.35 | 26 | $7,237.10 | $7,278.66 |
+$348.66 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:40am ET | $273.85 | 26 | $7,120.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:05pm ET | $265.50 | 26 | $6,903.00 | $7,061.56 |
$-217.10 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:20pm ET | $267.12 | 26 | $6,945.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $266.64 | 26 | $6,932.64 | $7,049.08 |
$-12.48 (-0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
36m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $258.56 | 27 | $6,981.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $250.43 | 27 | $6,761.61 | $6,829.57 |
$-219.51 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET | $253.48 | 26 | $6,590.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $267.15 | 26 | $6,945.90 | $7,185.12 |
+$355.55 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $274.83 | 26 | $7,145.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $252.22 | 26 | $6,557.72 | $6,597.26 |
$-587.86 (-8.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $274.83 | 26 | $7,145.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $249.65 | 26 | $6,490.77 | $5,942.45 |
$-654.81 (-9.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $243.19 | 24 | $5,836.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $234.58 | 24 | $5,629.92 | $5,735.81 |
$-206.64 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $241.11 | 23 | $5,545.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $233.15 | 23 | $5,362.56 | $5,552.84 |
$-182.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:05pm ET | $240.56 | 23 | $5,532.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $231.26 | 23 | $5,318.89 | $5,338.85 |
$-213.99 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET | $226.25 | 23 | $5,203.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:25pm ET | $237.69 | 23 | $5,466.87 | $5,601.97 |
+$263.12 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $235.17 | 23 | $5,408.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $251.55 | 23 | $5,785.65 | $5,978.71 |
+$376.74 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $247.74 | 24 | $5,945.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $238.41 | 24 | $5,721.84 | $5,754.79 |
$-223.92 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $240.71 | 23 | $5,536.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $253.36 | 23 | $5,827.28 | $6,045.63 |
+$290.84 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 12:10pm ET | $253.10 | 23 | $5,821.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $245.45 | 23 | $5,645.35 | $5,869.68 |
$-175.95 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 1:10pm ET | $241.40 | 24 | $5,793.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 13, 2026 11:30am ET | $234.15 | 24 | $5,619.60 | $5,695.64 |
$-174.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $246.18 | 23 | $5,662.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $260.15 | 23 | $5,983.36 | $6,016.86 |
+$321.22 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $250.27 | 24 | $6,006.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $242.42 | 24 | $5,818.08 | $5,828.34 |
$-188.52 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 10:40am ET | $242.82 | 24 | $5,827.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $255.71 | 24 | $6,137.04 | $6,137.58 |
+$309.24 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 1, 2026 2:30pm ET | $272.80 | 22 | $6,001.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $264.17 | 22 | $5,811.63 | $5,947.72 |
$-189.86 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.34 | 23 | $5,895.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $246.51 | 23 | $5,669.73 | $5,721.63 |
$-226.09 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $241.70 | 23 | $5,559.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:40pm ET | $233.66 | 23 | $5,374.18 | $5,536.71 |
$-184.92 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 12:45pm ET | $235.62 | 23 | $5,419.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $227.99 | 23 | $5,243.66 | $5,361.11 |
$-175.60 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.40 | 26 | $5,262.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $195.82 | 26 | $5,091.19 | $5,189.90 |
$-171.21 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,189.90
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,810.10
Total Return:
-48.10%