Compendium › Marcus Reversal › AMGN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMGN
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 21 trades in period

+17.04%
Year to Date Return
$11,281.43
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$9,638.75
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-09-26 01:40:32

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.18%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.36%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 2.8
Storm
⛈️ 1 storm day in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+13.8%
5d Trend
+8.9%
EMA20 Dist
+7.0%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
95%
Bounce Ratio
3.1×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Sep 25, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.6/35
Total Return
9.5/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.9/10
Raw Quality 17.2/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 16.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-4.5%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,792
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-25
Trading Days
187 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$9,638.75
Current Value
$11,281.43
Period P&L
$1,642.68
Max Drawdown
-28.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.21

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
21
Winners / Losers
11 / 10
Best Trade
+7.83%
Worst Trade
-7.74%
Avg Trade Return
+1.04%
Avg Hold Time
11.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$421,539.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,642.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,642.68
Gross Return
+17.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+17.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMGN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 187 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 21 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,638.75 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 9, 2025 9:55am ET $319.00 29 $9,251.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $335.10 29 $9,717.90 $9,871.53 +$466.90
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
29d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 9:45am ET $338.13 29 $9,805.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $327.45 29 $9,496.05 $9,561.81 $-309.72
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 12:55pm ET $323.53 29 $9,382.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $339.71 29 $9,851.59 $10,031.18 +$469.37
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 3:20pm ET $346.90 28 $9,713.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:00pm ET $364.48 28 $10,205.30 $10,523.28 +$492.10
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:30pm ET $365.79 28 $10,242.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $384.13 28 $10,755.64 $11,036.80 +$513.52
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 3:20pm ET $373.26 29 $10,824.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 2:30pm ET $361.84 29 $10,493.34 $10,705.60 $-331.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 2:55pm ET $367.05 29 $10,644.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:40am ET $355.11 29 $10,298.19 $10,359.48 $-346.12
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.7d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 12:20pm ET $350.75 29 $10,171.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $336.25 29 $9,751.25 $9,938.98 $-420.50
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $348.46 28 $9,756.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $335.79 28 $9,402.12 $9,584.22 $-354.76
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 1:35pm ET $347.56 27 $9,384.12 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $326.61 27 $8,818.34 $9,018.44 $-565.78
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held
11 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 9:35am ET $324.42 27 $8,759.34 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $343.27 27 $9,268.29 $9,527.39 +$508.95
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18d held
12 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 1:00pm ET $336.38 28 $9,418.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:50am ET $324.62 28 $9,089.36 $9,198.11 $-329.28
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 11:25am ET $344.13 26 $8,947.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2026 10:00am ET $361.40 26 $9,396.53 $9,647.26 +$449.15
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 29, 2026 11:30am ET $359.75 26 $9,353.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2026 9:50am ET $378.52 26 $9,841.52 $10,135.28 +$488.02
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
17.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 20, 2026 1:55pm ET $364.86 27 $9,851.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 28, 2026 9:30am ET $388.24 27 $10,482.48 $10,766.41 +$631.13
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 29, 2026 10:55am ET $392.09 27 $10,586.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 30, 2026 9:30am ET $379.74 27 $10,253.11 $10,433.09 $-333.32
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.6h held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2026 9:30am ET $382.00 27 $10,314.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2026 9:35am ET $411.89 27 $11,121.16 $11,240.25 +$807.16
(+7.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 10:40am ET $402.25 27 $10,860.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 18, 2026 9:30am ET $423.54 27 $11,435.58 $11,815.08 +$574.83
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12d held
19 🟢 BUY Aug 19, 2026 11:40am ET $437.13 27 $11,802.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET $403.29 27 $10,888.83 $10,901.40 $-913.68
(-7.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $390.93 27 $10,555.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2026 10:05am ET $378.92 27 $10,230.71 $10,576.86 $-324.54
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Sep 14, 2026 10:40am ET $378.01 27 $10,206.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 22, 2026 9:30am ET $404.10 27 $10,910.70 $11,281.43 +$704.57
(+6.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,281.43
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,281.43
Total Return: +12.81%
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