Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:20:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

23
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.6/35
Total Return
12.2/25
Win Rate
1.6/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 24.4/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 22.6

30-Day Momentum

1
-10.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,933
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
188 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$15,242.31
Current Value
$12,834.47
Period P&L
$-2,407.84
Max Drawdown
-27.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
20
Winners / Losers
6 / 14
Best Trade
+8.69%
Worst Trade
-6.43%
Avg Trade Return
-0.76%
Avg Hold Time
10.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$567,653.95
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,407.84
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,407.84
Gross Return
-15.80%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 188 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 20 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,242.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 11:35am ET $380.53 40 $15,221.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $359.55 40 $14,382.00 $14,403.09 $-839.20
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:15am ET $357.07 40 $14,282.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:05am ET $345.61 40 $13,824.40 $13,944.89 $-458.20
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 11:35am ET $352.82 39 $13,759.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $360.03 39 $14,041.17 $14,226.27 +$281.38
(+2.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
6.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $344.41 41 $14,120.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:55am ET $333.54 41 $13,674.94 $13,780.40 $-445.88
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:30am ET $317.76 43 $13,663.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET $334.05 43 $14,364.15 $14,481.08 +$700.68
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET $319.05 45 $14,357.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $309.18 45 $13,913.10 $14,036.71 $-444.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 2:15pm ET $308.64 45 $13,888.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $297.35 45 $13,380.75 $13,528.66 $-508.05
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $294.11 45 $13,235.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $319.66 45 $14,384.70 $14,678.19 +$1,149.53
(+8.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
30d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET $313.11 46 $14,402.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $329.18 46 $15,142.28 $15,417.64 +$739.45
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $328.86 46 $15,127.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $318.11 46 $14,633.29 $14,923.37 $-494.27
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $314.14 47 $14,764.58 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $303.41 47 $14,260.27 $14,419.06 $-504.31
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
25.8d held
12 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 2:35pm ET $312.64 46 $14,381.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:20am ET $303.21 46 $13,947.66 $13,985.28 $-433.78
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:55pm ET $313.57 44 $13,797.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $335.54 44 $14,763.76 $14,951.96 +$966.68
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
10.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $343.89 43 $14,787.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 10:30am ET $361.62 43 $15,549.66 $15,714.35 +$762.39
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
27.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 12:20pm ET $360.08 43 $15,483.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 21, 2026 9:45am ET $349.17 43 $15,014.52 $15,245.44 $-468.91
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
16 🟢 BUY Jul 22, 2026 9:45am ET $348.60 43 $14,989.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 24, 2026 9:30am ET $326.17 43 $14,025.31 $14,280.95 $-964.49
(-6.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Jul 28, 2026 1:45pm ET $334.79 42 $14,060.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 1:45pm ET $332.96 42 $13,984.32 $14,204.30 $-76.65
(-0.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
18 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:35am ET $331.39 42 $13,918.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2026 9:30am ET $320.43 42 $13,458.06 $13,744.19 $-460.11
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
19 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2026 2:05pm ET $324.87 42 $13,644.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $313.46 42 $13,165.53 $13,265.18 $-479.01
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
20 🟢 BUY Sep 17, 2026 3:10pm ET $312.95 42 $13,143.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 10:05am ET $302.70 42 $12,713.19 $12,834.47 $-430.71
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,834.47
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,834.47
Total Return: +28.34%
Back to Marcus Reversal