Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-09-24 21:34:14

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
59.7 neutral
20d Trend
+0.8%
5d Trend
+3.3%
EMA20 Dist
+2.2%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
64%
Bounce Ratio
2.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.9/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
2.3/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
5.8/10
Raw Quality 30.4/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 28.3

30-Day Momentum

1
-12.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,893
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,141.51
Current Value
$14,252.71
Period P&L
$1,111.22
Max Drawdown
-21.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
8 / 9
Best Trade
+5.90%
Worst Trade
-4.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.55%
Avg Hold Time
14.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$472,918.70
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,111.22
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,111.22
Gross Return
+8.46%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.46%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BAC Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,141.51 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET $55.21 238 $13,139.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $52.53 238 $12,500.95 $12,545.30 $-639.03
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
29d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 2:50pm ET $52.68 238 $12,536.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 9:35am ET $55.44 238 $13,194.72 $13,203.37 +$658.07
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $54.69 241 $13,181.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $56.37 241 $13,583.97 $13,605.84 +$402.47
(+3.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:20pm ET $52.76 257 $13,560.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 11:15am ET $51.15 257 $13,146.83 $13,192.07 $-413.77
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 2:25pm ET $50.40 261 $13,155.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $48.75 261 $12,723.75 $12,760.12 $-431.95
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET $49.61 257 $12,749.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $48.06 257 $12,351.42 $12,361.77 $-398.35
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $47.47 260 $12,342.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $49.90 260 $12,972.70 $12,992.27 +$630.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
28d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:40am ET $49.63 261 $12,953.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:50am ET $52.12 261 $13,602.02 $13,640.86 +$648.59
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 3:20pm ET $52.65 259 $13,635.06 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 9:30am ET $50.70 259 $13,131.30 $13,137.11 $-503.75
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
31.8d held
10 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:40am ET $50.24 261 $13,111.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $52.97 261 $13,826.47 $13,852.25 +$715.14
(+5.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
23d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $53.62 258 $13,833.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $56.78 258 $14,650.53 $14,668.82 +$816.57
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
10d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 2:00pm ET $56.85 258 $14,667.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 9:45am ET $59.76 258 $15,418.08 $15,419.63 +$750.81
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2026 10:40am ET $60.12 256 $15,390.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 4, 2026 10:15am ET $63.22 256 $16,183.04 $16,211.95 +$792.32
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
28d held
14 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2026 10:40am ET $63.26 256 $16,195.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 27, 2026 10:10am ET $61.29 256 $15,690.24 $15,706.35 $-505.60
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
15 🟢 BUY Aug 31, 2026 9:30am ET $62.20 252 $15,674.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 14, 2026 1:25pm ET $60.12 252 $15,150.24 $15,182.19 $-524.16
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.2d held
16 🟢 BUY Sep 16, 2026 9:30am ET $59.33 255 $15,129.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 3:15pm ET $57.44 255 $14,648.47 $14,701.51 $-480.68
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
17 🟢 BUY Sep 18, 2026 9:30am ET $57.52 255 $14,667.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 23, 2026 11:50am ET $55.76 255 $14,218.80 $14,252.71 $-448.80
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,252.71
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,252.71
Total Return: +42.53%
Back to Marcus Reversal