Compendium › Marcus Reversal › BLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 27 trades in period

+5.01%
Year to Date Return
$14,280.47
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$13,598.83
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Signals generated 2026-09-25 00:02:08

Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.

Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
36.8 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
-5.4%
EMA20 Dist
-4.3%
ATR%
2.6%
Range Pos
26%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.7/35
Total Return
13.6/25
Win Rate
3.0/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 33.5/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 30.8

30-Day Momentum

0
-7.2%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,927
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
186 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)

Market Closed (8 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,598.83
Current Value
$14,280.47
Period P&L
$681.64
Max Drawdown
-17.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
12 / 15
Best Trade
+6.68%
Worst Trade
-3.87%
Avg Trade Return
+0.27%
Avg Hold Time
9.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$714,772.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$681.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$681.64
Gross Return
+5.01%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.01%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 186 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,598.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 2:45pm ET $1,077.13 12 $12,925.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $1,099.07 12 $13,188.84 $13,887.79 +$263.34
(+2.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET $1,119.00 12 $13,427.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 10:15am ET $1,083.79 12 $13,005.42 $13,465.27 $-422.52
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET $1,081.14 12 $12,973.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,144.81 12 $13,737.72 $14,229.31 +$764.04
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 16, 2026 12:25pm ET $1,170.42 12 $14,045.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET $1,131.96 12 $13,583.52 $13,767.79 $-461.52
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET $1,122.23 12 $13,466.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:35am ET $1,087.23 12 $13,046.76 $13,347.79 $-420.00
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
13d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 1:20pm ET $1,065.48 12 $12,785.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $1,081.99 12 $12,983.94 $13,545.97 +$198.18
(+1.6%) 		📅 Sim Ended
5.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET $1,061.29 12 $12,735.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 11:10am ET $1,029.24 12 $12,350.88 $13,161.43 $-384.54
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 12:55pm ET $955.76 13 $12,424.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 9:50am ET $921.02 13 $11,973.26 $12,709.79 $-451.64
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $969.11 13 $12,598.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET $932.75 13 $12,125.75 $12,237.11 $-472.68
(-3.8%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 12:20pm ET $929.82 13 $12,087.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET $977.78 13 $12,711.14 $12,860.59 +$623.48
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
9.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET $959.80 13 $12,477.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:35am ET $1,010.40 13 $13,135.20 $13,518.42 +$657.83
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
15d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:45am ET $992.30 13 $12,899.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $1,045.00 13 $13,585.00 $14,203.46 +$685.04
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 1:45pm ET $1,050.53 13 $13,656.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 12:35pm ET $1,017.30 13 $13,224.90 $13,771.47 $-431.99
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET $1,059.78 12 $12,717.30 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $1,079.84 12 $12,958.09 $14,012.26 +$240.79
(+1.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held
15 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:35am ET $1,067.14 13 $13,872.82 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $1,030.39 13 $13,395.07 $13,534.51 $-477.75
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
16 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 11:35am ET $1,049.16 12 $12,589.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 3:10pm ET $1,016.07 12 $12,192.84 $13,137.43 $-397.08
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:30am ET $1,001.00 13 $13,013.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,058.68 13 $13,762.84 $13,887.27 +$749.84
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 2:20pm ET $1,051.73 13 $13,672.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 12:55pm ET $1,011.03 13 $13,143.39 $13,358.17 $-529.10
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 3:25pm ET $981.67 13 $12,761.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 29, 2026 10:15am ET $950.99 13 $12,362.93 $12,959.40 $-398.77
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 30, 2026 2:00pm ET $959.80 13 $12,477.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 6, 2026 3:00pm ET $1,007.99 13 $13,103.93 $13,585.94 +$626.54
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
21 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2026 9:35am ET $995.73 13 $12,944.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 10, 2026 9:45am ET $1,046.78 13 $13,608.14 $14,249.53 +$663.59
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
22 🟢 BUY Jul 13, 2026 9:45am ET $1,027.99 13 $13,363.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2026 9:30am ET $1,096.66 13 $14,256.58 $15,142.24 +$892.71
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
23 🟢 BUY Jul 16, 2026 11:40am ET $1,095.48 13 $14,241.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 20, 2026 9:50am ET $1,059.89 13 $13,778.57 $14,679.57 $-462.67
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held
24 🟢 BUY Jul 21, 2026 11:10am ET $1,055.27 13 $13,718.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 3, 2026 9:55am ET $1,110.09 13 $14,431.17 $15,392.23 +$712.66
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.9d held
25 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2026 10:45am ET $1,135.28 13 $14,758.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 3, 2026 10:45am ET $1,116.99 13 $14,520.87 $15,154.46 $-237.77
(-1.6%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
26 🟢 BUY Sep 4, 2026 3:50pm ET $1,121.37 13 $14,577.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 9, 2026 9:35am ET $1,086.12 13 $14,119.56 $14,696.21 $-458.25
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
27 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2026 9:35am ET $1,064.91 13 $13,843.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 16, 2026 2:55pm ET $1,032.93 13 $13,428.09 $14,280.47 $-415.74
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,280.47
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,280.47
Total Return: +42.80%
Back to Marcus Reversal