CRM Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 47 trades in period
-17.59%
Year to Date Return
$7,795.45
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$9,459.85
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
18.8 oversold
20d Trend
-22.1%
5d Trend
-11.2%
EMA20 Dist
-13.2%
ATR%
4.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
5.2/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 5.1
30-Day Momentum
3
-4.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,718
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,459.85
Current Value
$7,795.45
Period P&L
$-1,664.41
Max Drawdown
-48.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
47
Winners / Losers
18 /
29
Best Trade
+6.37%
Worst Trade
-5.52%
Avg Trade Return
-0.29%
Avg Hold Time
4.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$743,146.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,664.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,664.41
Gross Return
-17.59%
Net Return (after fees)
-17.59%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 CRM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 47 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,459.85 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 8, 2025 10:50am ET | $258.94 | 35 | $9,062.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $266.27 | 35 | $9,319.45 | $9,513.06 |
+$256.55 (+2.8%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:10pm ET | $262.11 | 36 | $9,435.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:55am ET | $253.94 | 36 | $9,141.75 | $9,218.85 |
$-294.21 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:55am ET | $238.64 | 38 | $9,068.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $228.89 | 38 | $8,697.82 | $8,848.54 |
$-370.31 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $227.70 | 38 | $8,652.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:45pm ET | $220.49 | 38 | $8,378.43 | $8,574.37 |
$-274.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:40am ET | $227.63 | 37 | $8,422.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $215.08 | 37 | $7,957.78 | $8,109.83 |
$-464.54 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 11:50am ET | $212.90 | 38 | $8,090.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.56 | 38 | $7,735.28 | $7,754.91 |
$-354.92 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $189.46 | 40 | $7,578.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:55pm ET | $199.36 | 40 | $7,974.40 | $8,151.11 |
+$396.20 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $189.24 | 43 | $8,137.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $193.79 | 43 | $8,332.97 | $8,346.76 |
+$195.65 (+2.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
4d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $193.38 | 43 | $8,315.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:40am ET | $187.29 | 43 | $8,053.47 | $8,084.89 |
$-261.87 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $184.89 | 43 | $7,950.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:40am ET | $177.88 | 43 | $7,648.73 | $7,783.35 |
$-301.54 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 11:25am ET | $184.93 | 42 | $7,767.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $194.52 | 42 | $8,169.84 | $8,186.13 |
+$402.78 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.42 | 42 | $8,039.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $202.00 | 42 | $8,484.00 | $8,630.49 |
+$444.36 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $198.16 | 43 | $8,521.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $191.84 | 43 | $8,249.12 | $8,358.52 |
$-271.97 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.42 | 42 | $8,039.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 10:15am ET | $185.21 | 42 | $7,778.82 | $8,097.70 |
$-260.82 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 10:40am ET | $183.63 | 44 | $8,079.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 3:20pm ET | $177.24 | 44 | $7,798.56 | $7,816.54 |
$-281.16 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $167.74 | 46 | $7,716.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $176.63 | 46 | $8,124.98 | $8,225.48 |
+$408.94 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $177.53 | 46 | $8,166.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $187.51 | 46 | $8,625.23 | $8,684.33 |
+$458.85 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.7d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $185.28 | 46 | $8,522.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $177.09 | 46 | $8,146.14 | $8,307.59 |
$-376.74 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $175.13 | 47 | $8,231.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $183.97 | 47 | $8,646.59 | $8,723.07 |
+$415.48 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $182.13 | 47 | $8,560.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $174.76 | 47 | $8,213.72 | $8,376.68 |
$-346.39 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:30am ET | $187.12 | 44 | $8,233.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $181.19 | 44 | $7,972.36 | $8,115.76 |
$-260.92 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $185.93 | 43 | $7,994.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $179.68 | 43 | $7,726.24 | $7,847.01 |
$-268.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 11, 2026 10:00am ET | $180.01 | 43 | $7,740.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 9:50am ET | $174.20 | 43 | $7,490.39 | $7,596.86 |
$-250.15 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $167.60 | 45 | $7,541.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:40am ET | $176.19 | 45 | $7,928.55 | $7,983.64 |
+$386.78 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 11:00am ET | $184.40 | 43 | $7,929.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $176.04 | 43 | $7,569.93 | $7,624.16 |
$-359.48 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.14 | 43 | $7,531.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $184.41 | 43 | $7,929.84 | $8,022.98 |
+$398.82 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $202.54 | 39 | $7,899.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 2, 2026 11:10am ET | $196.23 | 39 | $7,653.08 | $7,777.00 |
$-245.98 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2026 11:20am ET | $191.62 | 40 | $7,664.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $185.84 | 40 | $7,433.67 | $7,545.87 |
$-231.13 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 12:05pm ET | $182.07 | 41 | $7,464.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $176.57 | 41 | $7,239.57 | $7,320.78 |
$-225.09 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 1:00pm ET | $173.88 | 42 | $7,302.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.06 | 42 | $7,016.52 | $7,034.55 |
$-286.23 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.44 | 42 | $6,906.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $158.25 | 42 | $6,646.50 | $6,774.57 |
$-259.98 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $150.93 | 44 | $6,640.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.49 | 44 | $7,017.34 | $7,151.21 |
+$376.64 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.30 | 45 | $7,078.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $165.48 | 45 | $7,446.38 | $7,519.09 |
+$367.88 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $163.93 | 45 | $7,376.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $157.91 | 45 | $7,105.95 | $7,248.42 |
$-270.67 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2026 10:45am ET | $163.66 | 44 | $7,201.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $172.03 | 44 | $7,569.32 | $7,616.70 |
+$368.28 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 14, 2026 1:40pm ET | $170.26 | 44 | $7,491.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $165.00 | 44 | $7,260.00 | $7,385.26 |
$-231.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2026 10:30am ET | $158.59 | 46 | $7,295.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $168.69 | 46 | $7,759.74 | $7,849.86 |
+$464.60 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $182.84 | 42 | $7,679.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2026 10:20am ET | $177.24 | 42 | $7,444.29 | $7,614.87 |
$-234.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 3, 2026 10:50am ET | $188.11 | 40 | $7,524.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $197.91 | 40 | $7,916.40 | $8,006.87 |
+$392.00 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 2:20pm ET | $196.40 | 40 | $7,855.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 10:00am ET | $190.34 | 40 | $7,613.60 | $7,764.67 |
$-242.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 3:30pm ET | $198.16 | 39 | $7,728.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $208.50 | 39 | $8,131.50 | $8,167.93 |
+$403.26 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $205.91 | 39 | $8,030.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $199.45 | 39 | $7,778.55 | $7,915.80 |
$-252.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 27, 2026 11:50am ET | $244.69 | 32 | $7,830.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $257.47 | 32 | $8,239.04 | $8,324.76 |
+$408.96 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.8h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 1:25pm ET | $260.67 | 31 | $8,080.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.48 | 31 | $7,702.90 | $7,946.89 |
$-377.87 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $248.68 | 31 | $7,709.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 15, 2026 12:00pm ET | $261.29 | 31 | $8,099.84 | $8,337.64 |
+$390.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $250.79 | 33 | $8,276.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $242.69 | 33 | $8,008.77 | $8,070.34 |
$-267.30 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $240.62 | 33 | $7,940.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2026 10:30am ET | $232.29 | 33 | $7,665.57 | $7,795.45 |
$-274.89 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,795.45
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,204.55
Total Return:
-22.05%