CRWD Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 55 trades in period
-70.75%
Year to Date Return
$7,323.94
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$25,043.30
Period Start
PHASE 1: COMPLACENT DECLINE
😴 Complacent Bear (strategies struggle)
Price declining but no fear. Strategies historically underperform. Wait for fear to build.
Fear & Greed
71
Greed
VIX
14.2
LOW
10Y Yield
5.11%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.31%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.68
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
RSI(14)
19.8 oversold
20d Trend
-20.5%
5d Trend
-15.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.5%
ATR%
4.6%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored Sep 24, 2026
8
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
2.7/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
8.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 8.1
30-Day Momentum
39
+12.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 47.9
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,761
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-24
Trading Days
189 days
Data Gaps
None (8 market holidays)
Market Closed (8 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2026-07-03 — Independence Day (observed), 2026-09-07 — Labor Day
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$25,043.30
Current Value
$7,323.94
Period P&L
$-17,719.36
Max Drawdown
-24.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
55
Winners / Losers
24 /
31
Best Trade
+10.20%
Worst Trade
-74.79%
Avg Trade Return
-1.03%
Avg Hold Time
2.9d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,986,045.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-17,719.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$-17,719.36
Gross Return
-70.75%
Net Return (after fees)
-70.75%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 CRWD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 189 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 55 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $25,043.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 10:15am ET | $482.56 | 53 | $25,575.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $466.66 | 53 | $24,732.98 | $24,882.67 |
$-842.70 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $463.68 | 53 | $24,575.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $447.14 | 53 | $23,698.16 | $24,005.79 |
$-876.89 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:45am ET | $445.49 | 53 | $23,610.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 12:35pm ET | $467.90 | 53 | $24,798.70 | $25,193.52 |
+$1,187.73 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 12:55pm ET | $477.51 | 52 | $24,830.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $447.43 | 52 | $23,266.10 | $23,629.36 |
$-1,564.16 (-6.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:00pm ET | $440.50 | 53 | $23,346.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $424.29 | 53 | $22,487.37 | $22,770.23 |
$-859.13 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:50am ET | $405.24 | 56 | $22,693.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:25pm ET | $392.85 | 56 | $21,999.60 | $22,076.39 |
$-693.84 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.11 | 52 | $21,949.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $409.42 | 52 | $21,289.58 | $21,416.25 |
$-660.14 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
25m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $424.16 | 50 | $21,208.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $402.72 | 50 | $20,136.00 | $20,344.25 |
$-1,072.00 (-5.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 2:20pm ET | $345.13 | 58 | $20,017.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $362.60 | 58 | $21,030.80 | $21,357.26 |
+$1,013.01 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $368.35 | 57 | $20,995.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $387.15 | 57 | $22,067.61 | $22,428.92 |
+$1,071.66 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:00am ET | $420.15 | 53 | $22,267.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET | $445.55 | 53 | $23,614.15 | $23,775.12 |
+$1,346.20 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:50am ET | $438.63 | 54 | $23,686.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $424.82 | 54 | $22,940.40 | $23,029.50 |
$-745.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.2d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 11:00am ET | $433.75 | 53 | $22,988.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $416.44 | 53 | $22,071.32 | $22,112.07 |
$-917.43 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 12:25pm ET | $411.16 | 53 | $21,791.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $394.80 | 53 | $20,924.40 | $21,244.99 |
$-867.08 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $389.14 | 54 | $21,013.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $370.43 | 54 | $20,003.22 | $20,234.92 |
$-1,010.07 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $385.16 | 52 | $20,028.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $405.98 | 52 | $21,110.96 | $21,317.56 |
+$1,082.64 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $415.58 | 51 | $21,194.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $403.01 | 51 | $20,553.52 | $20,676.24 |
$-641.32 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:05am ET | $365.91 | 56 | $20,490.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $387.05 | 56 | $21,675.08 | $21,860.36 |
+$1,184.12 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 10:45am ET | $400.92 | 54 | $21,649.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $422.51 | 54 | $22,815.32 | $23,025.74 |
+$1,165.38 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $423.57 | 54 | $22,872.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $446.24 | 54 | $24,096.96 | $24,249.92 |
+$1,224.18 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $448.74 | 54 | $24,231.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:50am ET | $471.34 | 54 | $25,452.36 | $25,470.31 |
+$1,220.39 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $465.85 | 54 | $25,155.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $491.83 | 54 | $26,558.82 | $26,873.23 |
+$1,402.92 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $495.69 | 54 | $26,767.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $522.13 | 54 | $28,195.02 | $28,300.99 |
+$1,427.76 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 3:40pm ET | $546.79 | 51 | $27,886.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 14, 2026 11:05am ET | $575.12 | 51 | $29,331.35 | $29,746.15 |
+$1,445.16 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $589.34 | 50 | $29,466.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $619.07 | 50 | $30,953.50 | $31,232.90 |
+$1,486.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2026 3:50pm ET | $617.48 | 50 | $30,874.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $648.76 | 50 | $32,438.00 | $32,796.65 |
+$1,563.75 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2026 1:10pm ET | $667.43 | 49 | $32,704.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $638.00 | 49 | $31,262.00 | $31,354.58 |
$-1,442.07 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $645.08 | 48 | $30,963.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $694.87 | 48 | $33,353.76 | $33,744.50 |
+$2,389.92 (+7.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $764.85 | 44 | $33,653.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $678.00 | 44 | $29,832.00 | $29,923.10 |
$-3,821.40 (-11.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $696.59 | 42 | $29,256.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 2:45pm ET | $675.41 | 42 | $28,367.22 | $29,033.54 |
$-889.56 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.3h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $655.01 | 44 | $28,820.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $632.79 | 44 | $27,842.76 | $28,055.86 |
$-977.68 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 10, 2026 11:30am ET | $651.28 | 43 | $28,005.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2026 12:00pm ET | $684.27 | 43 | $29,423.61 | $29,474.22 |
+$1,418.36 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2026 12:00pm ET | $681.75 | 43 | $29,315.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $721.99 | 43 | $31,045.57 | $31,204.54 |
+$1,730.32 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 30, 2026 2:00pm ET | $758.54 | 41 | $31,100.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $191.26 | 41 | $7,841.46 | $7,945.65 |
$-23,258.89 (-74.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $189.38 | 41 | $7,764.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $199.41 | 41 | $8,176.01 | $8,357.00 |
+$411.35 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2026 1:40pm ET | $198.38 | 42 | $8,332.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $190.22 | 42 | $7,989.24 | $8,014.07 |
$-342.93 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2026 1:40pm ET | $196.55 | 40 | $7,862.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2026 10:35am ET | $189.52 | 40 | $7,580.80 | $7,732.87 |
$-281.20 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2026 10:40am ET | $208.01 | 37 | $7,696.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $201.26 | 37 | $7,446.80 | $7,483.31 |
$-249.56 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2026 2:20pm ET | $205.05 | 36 | $7,381.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 20, 2026 3:55pm ET | $198.29 | 36 | $7,138.44 | $7,239.95 |
$-243.36 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $188.00 | 38 | $7,144.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $182.08 | 38 | $6,919.04 | $7,014.99 |
$-224.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $183.12 | 38 | $6,958.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $177.47 | 38 | $6,743.86 | $6,800.29 |
$-214.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $180.35 | 37 | $6,673.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 31, 2026 9:35am ET | $189.72 | 37 | $7,019.64 | $7,146.80 |
+$346.51 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $213.10 | 33 | $7,032.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.00 | 33 | $6,699.00 | $6,813.50 |
$-333.30 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $210.32 | 32 | $6,730.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $221.99 | 32 | $7,103.68 | $7,186.94 |
+$373.44 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $220.99 | 32 | $7,071.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $213.73 | 32 | $6,839.36 | $6,954.46 |
$-232.48 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 18, 2026 10:20am ET | $211.26 | 32 | $6,760.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2026 9:50am ET | $204.67 | 32 | $6,549.44 | $6,743.58 |
$-210.88 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.5h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $195.61 | 34 | $6,650.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $189.42 | 34 | $6,440.28 | $6,533.12 |
$-210.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $189.34 | 34 | $6,437.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $183.64 | 34 | $6,243.88 | $6,339.44 |
$-193.68 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $188.75 | 33 | $6,228.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $208.00 | 33 | $6,864.00 | $6,974.69 |
+$635.25 (+10.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $218.86 | 31 | $6,784.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $210.85 | 31 | $6,536.35 | $6,726.26 |
$-248.43 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
35m held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 31, 2026 10:50am ET | $225.48 | 29 | $6,538.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $218.58 | 29 | $6,338.76 | $6,526.10 |
$-200.16 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $205.16 | 31 | $6,359.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $216.57 | 31 | $6,713.74 | $6,879.88 |
+$353.78 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 8, 2026 9:40am ET | $209.61 | 32 | $6,707.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 14, 2026 9:35am ET | $221.13 | 32 | $7,076.16 | $7,248.52 |
+$368.64 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 15, 2026 3:00pm ET | $240.18 | 30 | $7,205.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $230.85 | 30 | $6,925.50 | $6,968.62 |
$-279.90 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $246.90 | 28 | $6,913.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $259.58 | 28 | $7,268.38 | $7,323.94 |
+$355.32 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$7,323.94
Net Profit/Loss:
$-2,676.06
Total Return:
-26.76%