Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:53:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.6 oversold
20d Trend
-46.1%
5d Trend
-40.6%
EMA20 Dist
-40.2%
ATR%
14.7%
Range Pos
0%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026

16
Lifetime
Confidence: 43%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.0/35
Total Return
0.9/25
Win Rate
18.2/15
Profit Factor
14.6/15
Consistency
2.1/10
Raw Quality 37.8/100
× Confidence 0.43 = 16.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (43%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,166
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
126 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$3,902.38
Current Value
$1,767.45
Period P&L
$-2,297.54
Max Drawdown
-99.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.21

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
63
Winners / Losers
18 / 45
Best Trade
+6.94%
Worst Trade
-7.56%
Avg Trade Return
-0.85%
Avg Hold Time
20.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$344,880.17
Estimated Fees
$862.20
Gross P&L
$-2,297.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$-3,159.74
Gross Return
-58.88%
Net Return (after fees)
-80.97%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

💸 Capital Refund History

When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.

# Date Capital Before Trades Before Era Fees Paid Reason
1 Jun 21, 2025 $99.18 568 $6,916.81 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 1 time. Total capital invested: $20,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.

📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures

Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.

💀 Era 1 — CRASHED
Jan 1, 2024 → Jun 21, 2025
Trades
568
Win Rate
37.1%
P&L
$-9,900.67
Fees Paid
$6,916.81
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,000
Crashed At
$99.18
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DOTUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 126 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 63 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $3,902.38 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 29, 2025 7:15am ET $1.82 2,186 $3,975.58
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 11:40pm ET $1.76 2,186 $3,855.38 $3,835.80 $-139.78
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7d held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 11:45pm ET $1.77 2,171 $3,835.80
🔴 SELL Jan 1, 2026 9:10am ET $1.86 2,171 $4,033.12 $4,013.45 +$177.65
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.4h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 1, 2026 7:05pm ET $2.00 2,007 $4,013.45
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 2:35pm ET $2.10 2,007 $4,214.12 $4,193.55 +$180.10
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 4:10pm ET $2.08 2,014 $4,193.55
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 7:20pm ET $2.21 2,014 $4,459.43 $4,437.80 +$244.24
(+6.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 8:30pm ET $2.17 2,049 $4,437.80
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 6:00am ET $2.10 2,049 $4,292.53 $4,270.71 $-167.09
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.4d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 6:15am ET $2.10 2,037 $4,270.71
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 1:40pm ET $2.20 2,037 $4,489.49 $4,467.59 +$196.88
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 7:35pm ET $2.18 2,047 $4,467.59
🔴 SELL Jan 7, 2026 11:05pm ET $2.12 2,047 $4,328.42 $4,306.43 $-161.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 8, 2026 1:10am ET $2.12 2,030 $4,306.43
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 7:35am ET $2.05 2,030 $4,169.18 $4,147.99 $-158.44
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 7:40am ET $2.06 2,016 $4,147.99
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 9:10am ET $2.17 2,016 $4,371.93 $4,350.63 +$202.64
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 12:30pm ET $2.24 1,945 $4,350.63
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:35pm ET $2.16 1,945 $4,200.88 $4,179.50 $-171.13
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:40pm ET $2.16 1,933 $4,179.50
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2026 3:45pm ET $2.10 1,933 $4,053.84 $4,033.26 $-146.24
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:55pm ET $2.11 1,911 $4,033.26
🔴 SELL Jan 17, 2026 5:15am ET $2.22 1,911 $4,247.24 $4,226.54 +$193.28
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.3d held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 17, 2026 6:30am ET $2.20 1,922 $4,226.54
🔴 SELL Jan 18, 2026 6:25pm ET $2.12 1,922 $4,080.47 $4,059.70 $-166.84
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 18, 2026 6:30pm ET $2.12 1,914 $4,059.70
🔴 SELL Jan 18, 2026 7:00pm ET $1.98 1,914 $3,781.59 $3,761.99 $-297.71
(-6.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 18, 2026 7:05pm ET $1.96 1,916 $3,761.99
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 12:35pm ET $1.90 1,916 $3,648.72 $3,630.20 $-131.79
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 4:30pm ET $1.91 1,898 $3,630.20
🔴 SELL Jan 25, 2026 11:15am ET $1.85 1,898 $3,502.44 $3,484.61 $-145.59
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Jan 25, 2026 11:20am ET $1.84 1,892 $3,484.61
🔴 SELL Jan 25, 2026 2:50pm ET $1.79 1,892 $3,378.67 $3,361.51 $-123.10
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.5h held
18 🟢 BUY Jan 25, 2026 2:55pm ET $1.79 1,879 $3,361.51
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 10:10am ET $1.89 1,879 $3,556.93 $3,539.63 +$178.12
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 3:40pm ET $1.86 1,903 $3,539.63
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 11:15pm ET $1.80 1,903 $3,427.35 $3,409.93 $-129.70
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held
20 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 11:20pm ET $1.80 1,891 $3,409.93
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET $1.75 1,891 $3,302.32 $3,285.54 $-124.39
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.7h held
21 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET $1.73 1,894 $3,285.54
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 1:25am ET $1.68 1,894 $3,184.57 $3,168.39 $-117.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 1:30am ET $1.68 1,888 $3,168.39
🔴 SELL Jan 31, 2026 3:35am ET $1.63 1,888 $3,067.59 $3,052.00 $-116.40
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
23 🟢 BUY Jan 31, 2026 3:40am ET $1.63 1,878 $3,052.00
🔴 SELL Jan 31, 2026 9:25am ET $1.56 1,878 $2,920.35 $2,905.41 $-146.58
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8h held
24 🟢 BUY Jan 31, 2026 9:30am ET $1.55 1,870 $2,905.41
🔴 SELL Jan 31, 2026 12:10pm ET $1.50 1,870 $2,809.69 $2,795.40 $-110.01
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held
25 🟢 BUY Jan 31, 2026 12:15pm ET $1.51 1,854 $2,795.40
🔴 SELL Jan 31, 2026 1:40pm ET $1.46 1,854 $2,710.50 $2,696.74 $-98.66
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held
26 🟢 BUY Feb 1, 2026 1:35am ET $1.54 1,749 $2,696.74
🔴 SELL Feb 1, 2026 10:25am ET $1.49 1,749 $2,605.80 $2,592.54 $-104.20
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Feb 1, 2026 10:30am ET $1.49 1,743 $2,592.54
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 10:20am ET $1.56 1,743 $2,723.12 $2,709.83 +$117.29
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
28 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $1.55 1,747 $2,709.83
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET $1.50 1,747 $2,622.47 $2,609.14 $-100.69
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held
29 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET $1.50 1,744 $2,609.14
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:20pm ET $1.45 1,744 $2,520.19 $2,507.37 $-101.77
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held
30 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 1:25pm ET $1.44 1,737 $2,507.37
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 3:25pm ET $1.52 1,737 $2,636.23 $2,623.37 +$116.00
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2h held
31 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 4:45pm ET $1.52 1,724 $2,623.37
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 8:55am ET $1.47 1,724 $2,538.91 $2,526.00 $-97.36
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.2h held
32 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:00am ET $1.48 1,712 $2,526.00
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 11:35am ET $1.43 1,712 $2,439.22 $2,426.81 $-99.20
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held
33 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 4:05pm ET $1.46 1,658 $2,426.81
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 2:55am ET $1.42 1,658 $2,353.87 $2,341.92 $-84.89
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8h held
34 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 5:20am ET $1.42 1,646 $2,341.92
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 6:20am ET $1.38 1,646 $2,263.88 $2,252.36 $-89.56
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held
35 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 6:25am ET $1.37 1,640 $2,252.36
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:20am ET $1.32 1,640 $2,165.42 $2,154.37 $-97.99
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
36 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:25am ET $1.31 1,646 $2,154.37
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 3:20pm ET $1.25 1,646 $2,062.21 $2,051.67 $-102.71
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9h held
37 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET $1.24 1,649 $2,051.67
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $1.15 1,649 $1,896.64 $1,886.77 $-164.90
(-7.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
38 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:15pm ET $1.13 1,667 $1,886.77
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:30pm ET $1.20 1,667 $1,998.44 $1,988.72 +$101.96
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
18m held
39 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 10:10pm ET $1.23 1,616 $1,988.72
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:50am ET $1.30 1,616 $2,092.12 $2,081.92 +$93.19
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held
40 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:00am ET $1.27 1,643 $2,081.92
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 8:20am ET $1.33 1,643 $2,187.08 $2,176.41 +$94.49
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.3h held
41 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:40pm ET $1.36 1,596 $2,176.41
🔴 SELL Feb 7, 2026 5:35am ET $1.32 1,596 $2,110.99 $2,100.27 $-76.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15.9h held
42 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2026 8:40am ET $1.34 1,567 $2,100.27
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 4:35am ET $1.30 1,567 $2,032.67 $2,022.34 $-77.93
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
43 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 4:45am ET $1.30 1,558 $2,022.34
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET $1.30 1,558 $2,023.02 $2,012.91 $-9.43
(+0.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
19.9h held
44 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:55am ET $1.30 1,554 $2,012.91
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 11:50pm ET $1.25 1,554 $1,949.96 $1,949.96 $-72.86
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9h held
45 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:30am ET $1.36 1,429 $1,949.96
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 1:45pm ET $1.32 1,429 $1,884.16 $1,884.16 $-75.39
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
46 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:50pm ET $1.32 1,426 $1,884.16
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 8:05am ET $1.28 1,426 $1,825.56 $1,825.56 $-67.88
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
47 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:50pm ET $1.32 1,426 $1,884.16
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 8:45am ET $1.27 1,426 $1,816.00 $1,757.40 $-77.41
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
48 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 8:50am ET $1.27 1,384 $1,757.40
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 10:20am ET $1.34 1,384 $1,848.90 $1,848.90 +$82.49
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
49 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET $1.32 1,397 $1,848.90
🔴 SELL Feb 21, 2026 4:30am ET $1.39 1,397 $1,942.92 $1,942.92 +$84.54
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.3h held
50 🟢 BUY Feb 21, 2026 7:45am ET $1.38 1,413 $1,942.92
🔴 SELL Feb 22, 2026 3:30am ET $1.33 1,413 $1,884.01 $1,884.01 $-68.48
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
51 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 3:35am ET $1.33 1,416 $1,884.01
🔴 SELL Feb 22, 2026 8:00pm ET $1.29 1,416 $1,826.53 $1,826.53 $-66.75
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.4h held
52 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 8:05pm ET $1.27 1,437 $1,826.53
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:05am ET $1.23 1,437 $1,768.75 $1,768.75 $-66.77
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.5d held
53 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 1:05pm ET $1.25 1,412 $1,768.75
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 5:15am ET $1.33 1,412 $1,876.94 $1,876.94 +$99.08
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.2h held
54 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 5:55pm ET $1.65 1,136 $1,876.94
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 12:10am ET $1.59 1,136 $1,811.38 $1,811.38 $-74.78
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held
55 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 12:15am ET $1.60 1,135 $1,811.38
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET $1.54 1,135 $1,745.11 $1,745.11 $-75.16
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
11.7h held
56 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 12:00pm ET $1.54 1,134 $1,745.11
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 6:30pm ET $1.62 1,134 $1,833.60 $1,833.60 +$79.54
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.5h held
57 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 12:00am ET $1.62 1,129 $1,833.60
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 6:20am ET $1.57 1,129 $1,777.61 $1,777.61 $-65.02
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.3h held
58 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 6:40am ET $1.57 1,129 $1,777.61
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:35am ET $1.53 1,129 $1,722.27 $1,722.27 $-64.08
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held
59 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 1:40am ET $1.49 1,154 $1,722.27
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 1:40pm ET $1.60 1,154 $1,841.78 $1,841.78 +$110.60
(+6.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
12h held
60 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 8:10pm ET $1.63 1,132 $1,841.78
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 4:00am ET $1.58 1,132 $1,785.75 $1,785.75 $-65.10
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8h held
61 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 4:50am ET $1.58 1,134 $1,785.75
🔴 SELL Mar 1, 2026 2:15pm ET $1.53 1,134 $1,730.42 $1,730.42 $-64.12
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.4h held
62 🟢 BUY Mar 1, 2026 2:20pm ET $1.53 1,134 $1,730.42
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 5:10am ET $1.48 1,134 $1,677.93 $1,677.93 $-61.01
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6d held
63 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 5:15am ET $1.48 1,132 $1,677.93
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 4:00am ET $1.56 1,132 $1,767.45 $1,767.45 +$80.91
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
+ 1 refund ($10,000)
Total Invested: $20,000.00
Ended with: $1,767.45
Net Profit/Loss: $-18,232.55
Total Return: -91.16%
Back to Marcus Reversal